{"id":1017729,"date":"2026-10-03T19:15:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T19:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1017729\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:15:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T19:15:26","slug":"buffalo-bills-trending-up-trending-down-ahead-of-week-4-game-vs-patriots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1017729\/","title":{"rendered":"Buffalo Bills trending up, trending down ahead of Week 4 game vs. Patriots"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bills (3-0) host the Patriots (1-2) on Sunday in their first divisional game of the season, and it is also New England\u2019s first trip to the new Highmark Stadium. The two teams arrive from opposite directions. The Patriots won in Buffalo in Week 5 last year and rode that momentum to their first AFC East title since 2019, and the Bills missed the division crown for the first time since then. Buffalo wants it back. A win would give the Bills a commanding three-game lead in the AFC East, and that gap matters.<\/p>\n

Getting there means not allowing Drake Maye to play well for the first time in a while. He ranks last among starting quarterbacks with a 58.6 passer rating, with one touchdown, six interceptions, and nine sacks taken. The Patriots are 29th in offensive EPA and have turned the ball over on a league-high 26.7% of their possessions. That offense has trouble getting past its own mistakes. The Bills\u2019 job is to take the ball when it\u2019s offered and not give it back. It\u2019s a great opportunity for Jim Leonhard defense to keep moving in the right direction.<\/p>\n

Here are the players who should impact tomorrow\u2019s game result the most:<\/p>\n

Maxwell Hairston, CB: The CB1 now<\/p>\n

\"ORCHARD<\/a><\/p>\n

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 27: Maxwell Hairston #1 of the Buffalo Bills stands on the field awaiting the snap against the Los Angeles Chargers during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n

According to Next Gen Stats, Hairston has allowed a 36.4% completion rate (minimum 10 targets). That is second-lowest among cornerbacks, behind only Trent McDuffie (26.7%). Against the Chargers, he was targeted five times, allowed one catch for seven yards, and gave up a 39.6 passer rating with a -8.6 target EPA. PFF graded him a 65.5 on 56 snaps. His season grade is 56.7, 65th among 99 cornerbacks. He also dropped an end-zone interception on the opening drive. The production is there, and the grade should follow once the ball starts landing in his hands.<\/p>\n

Christian Benford hasn\u2019t been good so far on the other side. His PFF grade entering Week 4 is 40.6 (97th of 99 cornerbacks), with a 124.4 passer rating allowed and 12 receptions given up. He is questionable and did not practice this week. There are no other true outside cornerbacks behind Hairston and Igbinosun. If Benford sits, Hairston becomes CB1, and I expect Maye to test him. Without A.J. Brown, the Patriots\u2019 leading receivers are Mack Hollins (156 yards) and Romeo Doubs (145). That is a very different test than the ones he has passed so far, and I think he\u2019s ready for it.<\/p>\n

DJ Moore, WR: the one Josh Allen trusts<\/p>\n

\"HOUSTON,<\/a><\/p>\n

HOUSTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 13: DJ Moore #2 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans during the second quarter of the game at NRG Stadium on September 13, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n

Moore played through an AC joint sprain against the Chargers and led the Bills in targets, catches and yards. He caught six of 10 targets for 67 yards, with key conversions on scoring drives. PFF graded him an 83.6, the highest on the Bills\u2019 offense. The usage numbers are the stronger case. In Weeks 1 and 3, when he played full games, Moore had a 33.5% target share, which jumps to 50% on third downs, and six targets of 15-plus air yards. On the season, he has 11 catches on 18 targets for 167 yards and a touchdown. The game against the Chargers was a tough one for Allen, and Moore was the one he kept going to.<\/p>\n

Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots\u2019 most effective defensive player through three weeks, is out with a shoulder injury. Charles Woods is the likely replacement, and he allowed four catches for 24 yards on seven targets in his Week 2 fill-in. The history says this is a soft spot. The Patriots ranked 31st in DVOA covering No. 1 receivers in the 2025 regular season. Carlton Davis\u2019s 21.1% coverage DVOA on wideouts was dead last among players with at least 400 snaps out wide. That is last year\u2019s data, and Davis has started 2026 well. Moore\u2019s shoulder is the concern. He was still limited in practice on Thursday. If healthy, I expect a big game from him.<\/p>\n

Dee Alford, CB: the slot has been a soft spot<\/p>\n

\"ORCHARD<\/a><\/p>\n

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 27: Dee Alford #23 of the Buffalo Bills sets up in coverage on the field against the Los Angeles Chargers during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n

Alford graded 41.2 against the Chargers, third-lowest among Bills defenders. After two games, he had allowed a 144.7 passer rating when targeted and 18 yards per reception. His season PFF grade is 40, 98th among 99 cornerbacks. The Bills signed him to replace Taron Johnson, and so far it hasn\u2019t worked as planned.<\/p>\n

Mack Hollins had six catches on nine targets for 87 yards against Jacksonville, and Maye has few other places to go. If the Patriots work the middle of the field, Alford is the one they\u2019ll find. He has to stop giving up the big play on third down, for example. Hopefully he can start playing better against a struggling divisional rival.<\/p>\n

Alec Anderson, LG: the interior is where Buffalo is exposed<\/p>\n

\"HOUSTON,<\/a><\/p>\n

HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 13: Offensive tackle Alec Anderson #70 of the Buffalo Bills readies for play during the NFL game between the Houston Texans and the Buffalo Bills on September 13, 2026, at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.(Photo by David Buono\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Anderson graded 39.0 against the Chargers, fourth-lowest on the offense. He was flagged twice for holding. His season PFF grade is 52.9 (53rd of 73 guards), with six pressures allowed. The Bills had 10 penalties for 88 yards as a team against LA.<\/p>\n

New England wins up the middle. The Patriots\u2019 pass-rush win rate was the third-highest in the league through two weeks. Christian Barmore is out, and Leonard Taylor III is next on the depth chart. Milton Williams has been doubled 38.2% of the time and failed to log a pressure on 24 pass-rush snaps against Jacksonville. The attention he draws helps the players around him.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Anderson been as bad as the PFF numbers suggest \u2014 in fact, he has some very good reps on tape so far this season. He doesn\u2019t have to win every rep, he just has to avoid the holding calls that keep killing drives.<\/p>\n

Greg Rousseau, OLB: He leads the NFL with six sacks and is second with 22 pressures, with an 89.6 PFF grade (sixth among edge defenders). He was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month. He isn\u2019t in the main spots only to avoid repeating the players I picked there last week. New England ranks 28th in sacks allowed per play.DeWayne Carter, DT: He leads the NFL in ESPN\u2019s run-stop win rate at 56% and has 22 run stops, the most among defensive tackles. PFF graded him an 81.7 against the Chargers, and he ranks 11th among defensive tackles with a 69.1 run-defense grade for the season.Davison Igbinosun, CB: He had the highest PFF grade on the Bills\u2019 defense against the Chargers, a 91.1. He had six tackles and a pass breakup after Benford left. A great sign as he\u2019s the next man up if Benford can\u2019t go.James Cook, RB: He gained 77 of his 154 yards in the fourth quarter on 11 carries. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Bills\u2019 rushing offense ranks first against a Patriots run defense ranked 22nd. Jimbo just has to protect the ball better.Christian Benford, CB: He\u2019s probably out after not practicing for the entire week. As the numbers mentioned above show, it hasn\u2019t been a good start for agent 47. It also happened last season, but now he\u2019s in a new defense, and questions about his fit there could make sense. With two young and talented high draft picks likely taking over during his absence, things could get interesting in the CB room.<\/p>\n

This game will be decided on the outside. If Benford sits, Hairston and Igbinosun have to hold up against a Patriots group that doesn\u2019t scare anyone, while Moore tests a secondary missing its best player. The things that can lose it for Buffalo are the same ones that almost did last week: turnovers, penalties, and the interior of the offensive line.<\/p>\n

Which matchup decides this game for you, fellow rumblers?<\/p>\n

Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bills (3-0) host the Patriots (1-2) on Sunday in their first divisional game of the season, and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1017730,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2048],"tags":[215,6491,214,53,85590,4424,1622,2086,7,6],"class_list":["post-1017729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-buffalo-bills","tag-bills","tag-bills-mafia","tag-buffalo","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-buffalo-bills-analysis","tag-buffalo-bills-discussion","tag-buffalo-bills-opinion","tag-buffalobills","tag-football","tag-nfl"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117378582482829777","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1017729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1017729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1017729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1017730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1017729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1017729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1017729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}