{"id":1019671,"date":"2026-10-05T23:51:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T23:51:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1019671\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T23:51:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T23:51:15","slug":"raiders-vs-patriots-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qb-matchup-injury-update-betting-trends-and-stats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1019671\/","title":{"rendered":"Raiders vs. Patriots prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) head to Foxborough on Sunday looking to continue their surprising start to the season when they line up against the New England Patriots (2-2). The Raiders sit second in the AFC West behind the undefeated Chiefs, while New England sits in second in the AFC East behind Josh Allen and the Bills.<\/p>\n<p>Marketed as their biggest game since moving to Las Vegas, the Raiders lost Sunday to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, 30-27. Vegas led 13-10 at the half but gave up 20 fourth quarter points to lose their first game of the season after three straight wins to open the campaign. Kirk Cousins completed 31 of 52 passes for 365 yards in the loss. The veteran signal-caller threw two touchdown passes to give him 11 on the season. Drake Maye and the Patriots resurrected their season with a 29-26 win in Buffalo over the Bills. New England trailed late in the fourth quarter, 26-21 but Efton Chism III caught a 23-yard touchdown pass to propel the Pats to the win. The aforementioned Maye delivered his best performance of the season, throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 54 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Sunday\u2019s game pits a Vegas squad looking to prove their strong start is no fluke against a Pats\u2019 team looking to build on its upset of Buffalo and show that its Week 4 performance was a sign of growth rather than a one-week anomaly.<\/p>\n<p>The head-to-head history is also telling. In their last four meetings, the Raiders are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread against the Patriots, with an Over\/Under even split of the four games. The average final score for the four games is Vegas 22.8, New England 22.5 \u2014 a combined average of just 45.3 points per game. That\u2019s right at the current line, and it reflects a series that has been low-scoring.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s dive into the numbers and see if we can\u2019t find an additional sweat or two.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">NBC Sports<\/a> has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.draftkings.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">DraftKings<\/a>, <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/fantasy\/football\/player-news\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">player news and updates<\/a>, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.<\/p>\n<p>Game Details and How to Watch: Raiders vs. PatriotsDate: Sunday, October 11, 2026Time: 1PM ETSite: Gillette StadiumCity: Foxborough, MATV\/Streaming: CBS<\/p>\n<p>Follow <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/fantasy\/football\/player-news\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Rotoworld Player News<\/a> for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.<\/p>\n<p>Latest Game Odds: Raiders vs. PatriotsThe latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders (+160), New England Patriots (-192)Spread: Patriots -3.5Total: 45.5<\/p>\n<p>The Spread has collapsed after opening with the Patriots favored by eight and the Total set at 44.5.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.peacocktv.com\/plans\/all-monthly?cid=2501brndprjblrpkpdsearch17215&amp;utm_campaign=2501brndprjblr&amp;utm_source=pk_ggl&amp;utm_medium=pd_search_acq_srcpy&amp;utm_term=6481429429&amp;utm_content=188815296908_755394663273&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=6481429429&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwhZDUBhBGEiwAbi5bjtmkyChuFlJBQ6HRJXtSCVNk1yuUNFIfUltXtTjJvwMGu48_wFbF2xoCZNIQAvD_BwE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Peacock<\/a> offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.<\/p>\n<p>Rotoworld Bet Best BetsExpert picks &amp; predictions for Raiders vs. Patriots<\/p>\n<p>Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.<\/p>\n<p>Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over\/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday\u2019s game between the Raiders and the Patriots:Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the MoneylineSpread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Raiders +3.5.Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 45.5.<\/p>\n<p>The single most important factor in considering taking the Total UNDER 45.5 is how inept the Patriots\u2019 offense has been. The numbers are genuinely staggering. New England ranks 32nd in offensive DVOA (-29.9%) \u2014 dead last in the entire league. They\u2019re scoring just 12.0 points per game (31st), and they\u2019ve managed only 2 total touchdowns in three games (32nd). Their touchdown percentage is 1.11% (32nd) \u2014 the worst mark in football by a wide margin. If you believe Drake Maye will struggle as he has for much of the season, add in the Raiders\u2019 defensive profile and you can make that case for the UNDER. Vegas ranks eighth in points allowed (18.0 per game), third in sacks (8), third in quarterback pressures (34), first in pressure rate (35.42%), second in sack rate (8.33%), and fourth in interception rate defense (3.12%). They also rank eighth in completion percentage allowed (61.46%) and fourth in interceptions (3). It all adds up to a defense that gets after the quarterback and takes the ball away\u2026.which suppresses scoring.<\/p>\n<p>To that end, the most compelling angle for the Under is the turnover differential between these two teams. New England has thrown 6 interceptions in three games \u2014 worst in the league \u2014 while Las Vegas has forced 3 interceptions (4th) and ranks 4th in interception rate defense (3.12%). Maye\u2019s turnover issues are a profile problem, not bad luck, and he\u2019s facing a Raiders\u2019 defense that gets after the quarterback and takes the ball away.<\/p>\n<p>Turnovers kill drives, and in a game with two struggling offenses, that\u2019s exactly how you keep a total under 45.5. The Patriots\u2019 defense has been so dominant on third down and in the red zone that opposing drives stall regardless.<\/p>\n<p>Raiders should feel \u2018confident\u2019 despite loss to KC<\/p>\n<p>Klint Kubiak may or may not have called his shot, but despite the loss, Mike Florio and Chris Simms continue to praise the \u201cgutsy\u201d Raiders for falling just short of a signature win.<\/p>\n<p>Raiders vs. Patriots: Betting Trends and StatsThe Raiders are 4-0 against the spread this seasonThe Patriots are 2-1-1 against the spread this seasonLas Vegas is 2-2 to the OVER this seasonNew England is 1-3 to the OVER this seasonQuarterback matchup: Raiders vs. PatriotsLas Vegas: Kirk Cousins<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 1,026 Passing Yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 99.5 RTG, Sacked 5 timesNew England: Drake Maye<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 854 Passing Yards, 4 TDs, 7 INTs, 71.0 RTG, Sacked 10 timesRaiders vs. Patriots: Top PlaymakersRaidersRB Ashton Jeanty<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 78 carries for 264 Yds, 0 TDs \/ 19 receptions on 25 targets for 165 Yds, 2 TDsTE Brock Bowers<br \/>2026 Statistics: 2GP, 16 receptions on 24 targets for 202 Yds, 2 TDsTE Michael Mayer<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 20 receptions on 24 targets for 169 Yds, 1 TDPatriotsWR Mack Hollins<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 15 receptions on 20 targets for 209 Yds, 0 TDsRB Rhamondre Stevenson<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 44 carries for 163 Yds, 1 TD \/ 12 receptions on 16 targets for 90 Yds, 0 TDsWR Romeo Doubs<br \/>2026 Statistics: 4GP, 12 receptions on 20 targets for 203 Yds, 2 TDsRaiders vs. Patriots: Injury UpdateRaidersWR Jalen Nailor (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameC Trey Zuhn III (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameG Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) was inactive for Sunday\u2019s game and is questionable for this Sunday\u2019s gamePatriotsWR Mack Hollins (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameTE Eli Raridon (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameDE Christian Barmore (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameCB Christian Gonzalez (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameCB Charles Woods (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s gameCB Channing Canada (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday\u2019s game<\/p>\n<p>Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest and tools for the NFL, including game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!<\/p>\n<p>Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) head to Foxborough on Sunday looking to continue their surprising start to the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1019672,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2050],"tags":[7,1167,249,2326,2094,6,208],"class_list":["post-1019671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-england-patriots","tag-football","tag-new-england","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-newengland","tag-newenglandpatriots","tag-nfl","tag-patriots"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117390991921982452","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1019671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1019671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1019671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1019672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1019671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1019671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1019671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}