The 49ers are 6-0, but their injury list keeps getting longer. Monday\u2019s 23-17 win over Washington gave San Francisco its sixth straight victory and showed again what this team has: McCaffrey scored two touchdowns and had 117 yards from scrimmage, Kittle opened the scoring, and the defense held the Commanders to 53 rushing yards. It also cost them Mike Evans in the second quarter. The veteran receiver had already caught three passes for 94 yards when his Achilles tendinitis flared up, and he\u2019s \u201cstill TBD\u201d for Sunday\u2019s trip to Atlanta (10:00 AM PT), according to GM John Lynch. Nick Bosa (calf), who has missed four straight games, is in \u201cthat same bucket,\u201d and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is still out. With a bye week coming next, San Francisco has every reason to be careful with its stars.<\/p>\n
The Falcons (2-4) need a win. They lost 31-23 to Chicago last Sunday and had the ball for under 20 minutes, while the Bears ran 73 plays to Atlanta\u2019s 50. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are still capable of taking over a game, and Michael Penix Jr. will need both of them against a defense that just recorded four sacks. Atlanta\u2019s secondary is also banged up, with A.J. Terrell (groin) and C.J. Henderson (groin) limited in practice. We compared our advanced simulation models against live Kalshi prices (code OREGONLIVE55)<\/a> to find the value in this NFC matchup.<\/p>\n 49ers at Falcons: Detailed BreakdownMatch Detail \/ MarketMetric \/ Betting LineFixtureSan Francisco 49ers at Atlanta FalconsDate & TimeSunday, October 25, 2026, 10:00 AM PT \/ These are current Kalshi contract prices<\/a>, where each contract pays $1 if it hits, shown next to the model\u2019s probabilities:<\/p>\n 49ers to Win: Yes at 60\u00a2 (61.0% model probability)Falcons to Win: Yes at 42\u00a2, No at 59\u00a2 (39.0% model probability)49ers Win by Over 2.5 Points: Yes at 53\u00a2, No at 48\u00a2 (53.5% model probability at 3.5, and higher at 2.5)Over 49.5 Total Points: Yes at 52\u00a2, No at 49\u00a2 (model projects 51 combined points)Falcons Team Total Over 24.5: Yes at 47\u00a2, No at 54\u00a2 (model projects 24 Falcons points)49ers Team Total Over 27.5: Yes at 45\u00a2, No at 56\u00a2 (model projects 27 49ers points)Projected Player Statistics and TD Probabilities:<\/p>\n Our predictive models projected offensive output across passing, rushing and receiving for Week 7. On Kalshi, a player\u2019s touchdown probability equals the fair price of his anytime touchdown contract in cents.<\/p>\n Quarterback Projections<\/p>\n Brock Purdy (SF): 242 Projected Passing Yards, 21 Projected Rushing Yards (19.6% TD Probability)Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 230 Projected Passing Yards, 7 Projected Rushing Yards (10.0% TD Probability)<\/p>\n Rushing and Receiving Efficiency<\/p>\n PlayerTeamProj. YardsTD ProbabilityBijan RobinsonATL (RB)85 Rush \/ 30 Rec64.0%Christian McCaffreySF (RB)64 Rush \/ 44 Rec63.0%George KittleSF (TE)66 Rec41.6%Drake LondonATL (WR)85 Rec33.0%Kyle PittsATL (TE)37 Rec26.6%Brian Robinson Jr.ATL (RB)27 Rush25.0%Brandin CooksSF (WR)36 Rec18.4%Kaelon BlackSF (RB)30 Rush18.1%Jahan DotsonATL (WR)34 Rec18.0%Christian KirkSF (WR)26 Rec15.8%J. WatkinsSF (WR)36 Rec13.5%Olamide ZaccheausATL (WR)14 Rec7.3%Deep Betting Market Analysis and Model Angles:<\/p>\n Outright Win Probability: 49ers (61.0% Model Probability). The models give San Francisco a 61.0% chance to improve to 7-0. Kalshi prices 49ers \u201cYes\u201d at 60\u00a2, close to fair. The cheaper way to back the 49ers is Falcons \u201cNo\u201d at 59\u00a2, two cents below the model\u2019s number. Falcons \u201cYes\u201d at 42\u00a2 is about three cents more than the model\u2019s 39.0%, so there\u2019s no value on the upset.<\/p>\n Point Spread Angle: 49ers Win by Over 2.5 (Yes at 53\u00a2 on Kalshi). This is the strongest play on the board. The simulations project a 27-24 49ers win, and even at the wider -3.5 they give San Francisco a 53.5% chance to cover. Kalshi\u2019s line is 2.5, so a three-point 49ers win also pays. Three is the most common final margin in the NFL, so the extra half-point matters. Paying 53\u00a2 for a contract the model rates above 53.5% is the clearest edge in this game.<\/p>\n Total Points Angle: Lean Over 49.5 (Yes at 52\u00a2). The model projects 51 combined points, a point and a half above Kalshi\u2019s total and half a point above the 50.5 at most sportsbooks. The team totals tell a slightly different story. The model projects each team a point or less below its own line (49ers 27 vs. 27.5, Falcons 24 vs. 24.5), which shows how close these numbers are. Treat the Over as a lean. If Evans and Bosa are ruled out, that would change the scoring picture, so wait for Friday\u2019s update before betting it.<\/p>\n Featured Prop Value: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (64.0% Model Probability). Robinson has the highest touchdown probability in the game, ahead of even McCaffrey (63.0%). The model projects him for 85 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards, and Atlanta will need to run him a lot to keep San Francisco\u2019s offense off the field. His fair price is 64\u00a2, so anything at or below that is a good buy. Brock Purdy\u2019s anytime touchdown contract is overpriced at 23\u00a2 against a 19.6% model probability. Purdy \u201cNo\u201d at 79\u00a2 is slightly better than fair.<\/p>\n NFL Prediction Markets:PlatformNFL Eligible?Oct. \u201926 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarket<\/a>Yes$25CUSE<\/a>, MASS<\/a>, OREGON<\/a>, SILIVE<\/a>, CLEVE<\/a>Kalshi<\/a>Yes$55SYRACUSE<\/a>, MASSLIVE1<\/a>, OREGONLIVE55<\/a>, SILIVE55<\/a>, CLEVELAND55<\/a>Novig<\/a>Yes$50SYRACUSE<\/a>, MASSLIVE<\/a>, OREGON<\/a>, CLEVELAND49ers vs. Falcons Week 7 Conclusion:<\/p>\n San Francisco is unbeaten and has a bye coming, but Evans and Bosa are both uncertain. Atlanta is at home and needs a win after a frustrating loss. The 10,000 computer simulations project a 27-24 49ers win. The best Kalshi plays are 49ers to win by over 2.5 at 53\u00a2 (code OREGONLIVE55) and Bijan Robinson Anytime TD at 64\u00a2 or better, with Over 49.5 as a lean.<\/p>\n Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or the Oregon Problem Gambling Resource at 1-877-MY-LIMIT.<\/p>\n Learn more about our gaming editorial staff<\/a>.<\/p>\n If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement<\/a> and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and\/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 49ers are 6-0, but their injury list keeps getting longer. Monday\u2019s 23-17 win over Washington gave San…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1034407,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2080],"tags":[220,7,6,1161,252,2624,2623],"class_list":["post-1034406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-francisco-49ers","tag-49ers","tag-football","tag-nfl","tag-san-francisco","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-sanfrancisco","tag-sanfrancisco49ers"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117486885528457714","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1034406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1034407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1034406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1034406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1034406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
1:00 PM ETVenueMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)49ers Moneyline-144 (Sportsbook) \/ 60\u00a2 Yes (Kalshi)Falcons Moneyline+138 (Sportsbook) \/ 42\u00a2 Yes (Kalshi)Point Spread49ers -2.5 (-111) \/ Falcons +2.5 (+108) \/ Kalshi \u201c49ers win by over 2.5\u201d: Yes 53\u00a2, No 48\u00a2Total Points (Over\/Under)50.5 (Sportsbook) \/ Kalshi Over 49.5: Yes 52\u00a2, No 49\u00a2Model Projected Score49ers 27, Falcons 24Model Win Probabilities49ers 61.0% \/ Falcons 39.0%Kalshi Market Trends and Model Benchmarks:<\/p>\n