{"id":1039451,"date":"2026-10-28T13:49:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T13:49:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1039451\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T13:49:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T13:49:23","slug":"are-the-denver-broncos-true-super-bowl-contenders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1039451\/","title":{"rendered":"Are the Denver Broncos true Super Bowl contenders?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hey Parker, now that we\u2019re through seven games, what are your thoughts on the Broncos? Are we contenders? Pretenders? Somewhere in between? I feel like we have a world-class defense with a middle-of-the-pack offense. Is that enough to get us to the playoffs? Maybe the Super Bowl?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Ronnie G., Denver<\/p>\n

Hey Ronnie, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve heard a lot of versions of this question over the past week or so, including whether the Broncos are a good 5-2 team, a bad one, somewhere in between, etc.<\/p>\n

Especially given the quality of opponents, there\u2019s no way around the fact that Denver is in a strong spot. Most NFL games are competitive, but it would be hard to get through the first six games the Broncos played with that record if they weren\u2019t good.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re contenders. They should be contenders two months from now. They\u2019ve got a big challenge on their hands this weekend against Kansas City and that will be a guidepost for what the AFC West race looks like. If Denver wins, the teams are tied at 6-2 with a split in their two games this year. Wide open. If Kansas City wins, the Chiefs will effectively have a three-game lead because they\u2019ll be up two in the standings and will own the tiebreaker after sweeping the Broncos. So, Sunday isn\u2019t fully determinative, but it seems like the single game so far on the slate that will define what the coming weeks feel like for the Broncos.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

In the broader view, Denver looks like a contender, but its true ceiling will depend on whether it can make substantial offensive progress.<\/p>\n

After Kansas City, the Broncos travel to Carolina, have their bye week and then return to a stretch that goes vs. Las Vegas, at Pittsburgh (Black Friday), vs. Miami, at New York Jets, at Las Vegas.<\/p>\n

The Steelers are 5-2. The rest of those teams are 9-18 combined. That\u2019s a manageable stretch. They don\u2019t necessarily need an offense hitting on all cylinders to arrive at Christmas and a closing stretch of vs. Buffalo, at New England, and vs. the Los Angeles Chargers squarely in the playoff picture. But they do need an improved offense in order to really, truly feel like Super Bowl contenders and certainly if they end up a wild-card team facing the prospect of having to string together playoff wins on the road.<\/p>\n

Over the last seven games, including the season\u2019s toughest stretch, Sean Payton\u2019s team ranks No. 30 in total offense and No. 23 in scoring offense. It is No. 23 in total defense and No. 7 in scoring defense.<\/p>\n

And yet this group is tied for the most wins in the AFC and only Kansas City and Buffalo currently have fewer losses (one apiece).<\/p>\n

The Broncos have done an admirable job of winning games and buying time for the offense to come around (and the defense to get back to full strength). Perhaps Sunday\u2019s convincing win over\u00a0Arizona was a start<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sunday afternoon at Empower Field will be another major data point.<\/p>\n

Jonah Coleman looked awesome out there on Sunday. He was explosive with the ball, he picked up blocks, he looked everything like we\u2019ve been wanting for an RB1. Do you think he moves up the depth chart this week against the Chiefs?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Matt P., Littleton<\/p>\n

Hey Matt, thanks for writing in. We wrote about this<\/a> quite a bit after the game,<\/a> so I won\u2019t spend a ton of time on it here, but the bottom line is yes, Coleman seems to be taking over as Denver\u2019s lead back. Perhaps J.K. Dobbins will continue to start and he\u2019ll almost certainly continue to be involved, but on Sunday against the Cardinals, Dobbins got three carries for 15 yards on the opening drive and then just three for 8 yards on Denver\u2019s remaining nine drives total.<\/p>\n

One thing Sam Jane and I talked about on our podcast<\/a> is what Coleman\u2019s role will functionally look like going forward. Right now he\u2019s Denver\u2019s third down\/two-minute back and he\u2019s also been called upon to close the past two games he\u2019s played in. That alone represents a floor for involvement. Then factor in more standard early-down work, and he has plenty of opportunities to be on the field.<\/p>\n

It won\u2019t be a total takeover, though, even if he does rise to the top of the depth chart. Last year, when Dobbins was one of the most efficient backs in football, he played 66.7% of Denver\u2019s offensive snaps in one game (Week 3 vs. the Chargers). Other than that, he never topped 53%. Some of that was probably because of his injury history, but this is not likely to turn into 80% Coleman and scraps for everybody else. Dobbins will have at least a role and RJ Harvey will continue to be involved and likely touch the ball quite a bit in both the passing and running games, too.<\/p>\n

Any ideas as to why ankle injuries are the injury to have this year?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Mark Johnson, Boulder<\/p>\n

Hey Mark, thanks for writing in. No good reason, it seems. Sometimes injuries just happen that way. They seem to group to one position or sometimes one part of the body. In camp it was a run of hamstrings. Now it\u2019s a run of ankles.<\/p>\n

Over seven weeks overall, though, Denver has been fortunate to mostly avoid a run of serious injuries.<\/p>\n

Can we give some praise to Adam Trautman? It was amazing how he kept his defender on him on Bo Nix\u2019s 62-yard touchdown run. And Troy Franklin blocking two defensive backs to give Nix room to get into the end zone was great. What was it like from your point of view in the stadium? I don\u2019t think I\u2019ve ever seen a quarterback run that unabated.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Mark, Arvada<\/p>\n

Hey Mark, no doubt. Adam Trautman pulled the oldest trick in the book. It was incredible that it worked, too, considering how far Nix already was up the field when he threw his hands up as if the ball was coming toward him. Heady play by the tight end and objectively hilarious to watch on the replay.<\/p>\n

BO NIX 62-YARD TOUCHDOWN RUN<\/p>\n

DENvsAZ on CBS\/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/sxC4uWF33r<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s fair to wonder what several of the Arizona defenders were doing even though they got caught exposed in a man coverage where, naturally, they\u2019re going to have their backs turned to Nix. First of all, the Cardinals only rushed four, meaning seven were in coverage. The Broncos had heavy personnel in the game so really only four receivers were out in the pattern and jumbo \u201ctight end\u201d Alex Palczewski was blocking. Arizona basically had double teams on tight end Evan Engram and receiver Troy Franklin and left nobody to account for Nix. By the time he hit the line of scrimmage, the only defender on Nix\u2019s left half of the field was Jack Gibbens and his response was to\u2026 push Jonah Coleman out of bounds and not look for the ball.<\/p>\n

Perhaps Denzel Burke could have gotten an angle on Nix, but Trautman threw his hands up like he was getting the ball when Nix was already 15 yards downfield.<\/p>\n

Franklin did good work down the field as you said. He cut off Dadrion Taylor-Demerson\u2019s pursuit and then at least got a shove in on Kei\u2019Trel Clark, too.<\/p>\n

Props well warranted for both Trautman and Franklin.<\/p>\n

How much of an issue for both the run and passing attack has our O-line\u2019s inconsistent play, especially at center, left guard and right tackle? I saw an article recently where it said that Luke Wattenberg has one of lowest rankings of any center in the league. Is Bo Nix getting too much heat that should be spread around?<\/p>\n

\u2014 LA Koenck, Aurora<\/p>\n

Hey LA, thanks for writing in and good question. It definitely has been an issue at times and you\u2019re right that those three positions have been the ones where Denver has struggled up front at times. Each of them \u2014 LG Ben Powers, C Luke Wattenberg and RT Mike McGlinchey \u2014 have done some good things this year, too, and they\u2019re all veterans capable of getting it going. But there have been some rough stretches, too. No Broncos offensive lineman is in the top 20 of ESPN\u2019s win rates for tackles or interior offensive linemen in either pass blocking or run blocking. As a team, Denver has been in the top 10 in those metrics for both pass and run blocking the past two seasons, but currently shows No. 24 pass blocking and No. 17 run blocking.<\/p>\n

One part of Wattenberg\u2019s struggles has been about getting shotgun snaps to Nix accurately. Before the game at Arizona, I talked to him about it and he acknowledged the issue, saying, \u201cI mean, I\u2019ve got to get it fixed. It\u2019s been something that\u2019s been kind of troubling me and it\u2019s not fair to Bo keep having to deal with that. I\u2019ve got to get fixed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wattenberg said the issue is mechanical. The key is to have the shoulder do the work and then everything else happens in order. When there\u2019s too much elbow or wrist, that\u2019s when snaps get off line.<\/p>\n

The veteran center wasn\u2019t interested in excuses, though he did deal with a left shoulder injury throughout camp (he snaps right-handed). There\u2019s a lot going on up front, too, between checks, calls, Mike ID and then, naturally, actually blocking very large men.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s just got to be a point of focus for me. I can\u2019t let other stuff get in the way of that. The snap has to be good first,\u201d he said. \u201c(Having a lot going on) is part of the game and it\u2019s part of what I have to deal with. I\u2019ve got to be better. I\u2019ve got to be better for Bo.\u201d<\/p>\n

Against the Cardinals, Wattenberg snapped 32 times in either shotgun or pistol. By my count, three of them were wide of the frame of Nix\u2019s body, all to Nix\u2019s left. Only one was errant enough to noticeably affect Nix\u2019s operation, but all the same, Wattenberg would likely say three is too many.<\/p>\n

Hi, Parker. I have two offense-related questions. First, I know the Broncos have a lot of problems on offense right now, but I\u2019ve thought for a while (going back seasons) that one of their biggest problems is second down. If they get an incomplete or very short pass gain on first down, it\u2019s a virtual guarantee they\u2019ll run it on second. That\u2019s a plague across football in general, with the theory being they\u2019ll try to make it third and manageable. First, the odds against most teams getting more than 3 yards on that run, and way against getting 5 or more. You\u2019re way more likely to get 7 yards or more passing than running. Coaches conquered their fourth-down phobia. Will they start getting more aggressive on second down? It feels like the best offenses are already there. The second thing is the overemphasis on avoiding interceptions. I don\u2019t like Bo Nix playing like Alex Smith. It doesn\u2019t feel like he was quite this conservative the first two years. What\u2019s changed? Payton himself seems more conservative this year. Playing not to lose is not a championship formula.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Dave G., Charlotte, N.C.<\/p>\n

Hey Dave, thanks for writing in and good questions. Payton\u2019s talked a number of times about how they study and self-scout their play sequencing on first and second down. If you play those two downs, there are only four possible combinations, right? Run\/run, pass\/pass, run\/pass and pass\/run. Sometimes you\u2019ve got your combo pre-set and, if first down goes the way you want, you roll to the next call.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s obviously a ton of analytics at play and teams analyze the most micro elements, but it does feel as though the second-down issue you\u2019re getting at so often comes down to confidence.<\/p>\n

If your offense is rolling, you\u2019re not so worried about second-and-7 and the need to get to third-and-manageable. Play aggressive. Don\u2019t be afraid of third-and-7. We\u2019re humming. We\u2019re getting a chunk play somewhere in there and third-and-7 doesn\u2019t have to be a pre-celebration for the punt unit.<\/p>\n

When you\u2019re grinding, though, you\u2019re more likely to try to get to third and manageable just to try to put yourself in a better position to maybe move the chains. Then, of course, score and game situation matter, too.<\/p>\n

Whatever the Broncos\u2019 exact approach in different spots over the past three weeks, the bottom line is it\u2019s not working well enough. Denver is just 7 of 37 on third downs since Week 5 and its average yards to go per third down in that stretch is 8.2 yards.<\/p>\n

As for interceptions, most quarterbacks are, generally speaking, either toeing the line between smart and aggressive or between smart and too cautious. Nix has been the latter this year. Payton is adamant about not turning the football over and with good reason, but I do think, given all the conversations about quarterback play in recent weeks, everybody will be happy if Nix is able to continue to dial up the aggressiveness by some without tipping the scale toward recklessness.<\/p>\n

When did professional football stop being a game people watched and become a gambling machine that trains fans \u2014 especially young men \u2014 to spend rent money chasing a bet? And why are leagues, broadcasters, and betting companies allowed to flood every game with ads while treating the debt, addiction, and family damage as someone else\u2019s problem?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Honu, Golden<\/p>\n

It is pretty wild, isn\u2019t it, Honu? It\u2019s not just professional football, either. Every sport is inundated with advertising for gambling companies, sponsorship deals, live odds, talk of betting, so on and so forth. Now add in \u201cprediction markets\u201d and it\u2019s become impossible to avoid. Fox\u2019s World Series broadcasts show live odds movements on Polymarket at various points during the games.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t have a ton of good answers, but I\u2019ll refer you to Noelle Phillips\u2019 excellent sports gambling series that ran in the Denver Post earlier this year<\/a>. There\u2019s a ton of really good reporting that attempts to tackle the questions you\u2019re asking.<\/p>\n

Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.<\/a><\/p>\n

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