History doesn\u2019t always repeat itself.<\/p>\n
But one thing remains pretty consistent in regards to the makeup of the teams that qualify for the IHSA playoffs: teams that qualify for the playoffs, tend to repeat the process more often than not.<\/p>\n
Certainly there are always a few new teams that would break into the field on a year-to-year basis, but the percentages have always been fairly stable and you could almost always count about an 80% return rate from year-to-year.<\/p>\n
In fact there were several seasons where that percentage pushed 85%.<\/p>\n
But in the gap between the 2021 and 2022 seasons there was a crack in that facade, for the first time since the field expanded to 256 teams, as that percentage dipped below 75% at 73.82%.<\/p>\n
Now, that level seems to be more of the norm as 73.4 percent of the field was repeat performers from 2023 to 2024. <\/p>\n
One thing, however, has remained fairly constant throughout: the teams that find themselves at or near the top of each classification remains extremely consistent.<\/p>\n
For years, I\u2019ve used what I call a three-year win model to project what the field will look like come October, as well as to try to identify where the classifications breaks will fall. It isn\u2019t a precise science, especially with the percentage of repeat teams continuing to fall, but it does provide a pretty fair estimation of where classification breaks will fall.<\/p>\n
While the win model hasn\u2019t done as solid of a job of predicting the field as a whole, it continued to do a very solid job of projecting the classification lines and where they might break.<\/p>\n
This is specifically a more interesting project this season as the IHSA\u2019s new policies for multipliers and the return to a one-year enrollment plan provided some rather pertinent shifts to what classifications schools might land in. <\/p>\n
The model forecasts the 256 teams most likely to reach the postseason based on the performance of the past three full seasons.<\/p>\n
NO FORECASTING of what the upcoming season is applied to this projection. Don\u2019t worry, those will come soon after opening night.<\/p>\n
The only tool that is used is establishing the three-year win patterns of every program in the state. <\/p>\n
Teams that earned at least 15 wins over the past three seasons were in. In addition, six teams that amassed 14 wins over that time frame also needed to be added to the field so the projection could reach the full 256 teams. Tiebreakers were used to decide which 14-win teams were included, based on more recent success.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s where the model has the classification breaks landing:<\/p>\n
ClassProjected Enrollment RangeClass 1Aup to 301.95Class 2A302-421Class 3A424-547.8Class 4A557.7-920.7Class 5A988-1348Class 6A1364-1785Class 7A1800-2283Class 8A2311 and up<\/p>\n
After establishing the 256-team field, one can put together prospective brackets based on the previous success levels of those programs.<\/p>\n
Here are the most successful programs inside the three-year model and which classifications those schools are expected to land in:<\/p>\n
TeamTotal WinsProjected ClassLena-Winslow401ALoyola398ACamp Point Central381ALincoln-Way East388AMount Carmel388AMaroa-Forsyth362AEast St. Louis366A*Byron353AWilmington343AYork348ABatavia336AJohnston City322ARochester324ASycamore325ASeveral tied with31<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a class-by-class breakdown of what looks interesting by using the projected classification break lines:<\/p>\n
Class 1A<\/p>\n
Enrollment range: Up to 301.95.<\/p>\n
Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Newman Central Catholic,<\/a> Arthur, Rushville, Morrison,<\/a> Arthur.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Momence,<\/a> Chicago Marshall, Mendon Unity, Johnston City, Tri-Valley.<\/p>\n Class 2A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 302-421<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 1A: (from closest to bubble from farthest): Newman Central Catholic,<\/a> Arthur, Rushville, Morrison,<\/a> Arthur.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Momence,<\/a> Chicago Marshall, Mendon Unity, Johnston City, Tri-Valley.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, White County, Mercer County, Pana, Reed-Custer.<\/a><\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington,<\/a> Stillman Valley, New Berlin, Fairfield.<\/p>\n Class 3A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 424-547.8<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 2A on the large side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Peotone, White County, Mercer County, Pana, Reed-Custer.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the small side (from closest to bubble from farthest): Vandalia, Wilmington, Stillman Valley, New Berlin, Fairfield.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Belleville Althoff, IC Catholic,<\/a> Richmond-Burton,<\/a> Bloomington Central Catholic, Dyett.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Breese Mater Dei, Murphysboro, Kewanee, South Shore, Benton.<\/p>\n Class 4A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 557.7-920.7<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 3A on the large side: Belleville Althoff, IC Catholic, Richmond-Burton, Bloomington Central Catholic, Dyett.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the small side: Breese Mater Dei, Murphysboro, Kewanee, South Shore, Benton.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Rockford Boylan, Montini,<\/a> Sacred Heart Griffin, Metamora, Evergreen Park.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Ridgewood, Corliss, Normal University, Hillcrest, Lindblom.<\/p>\n Class 5A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 988-1348<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 4A on the large side: Rockford Boylan, Montini, Sacred Heart Griffin, Metamora, Evergreen Park.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the small side: Ridgewood, Corliss, Normal University, Hillcrest, Lindblom.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Lake Forest,<\/a> Champaign Centennial, Oak Forest, Grayslake Central,<\/a> Cary-Grove.<\/a><\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Bloomington, Kankakee,<\/a> Dunlap, Washington, Chatham Glenwood.<\/p>\n Class 6A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 1364-1785<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 5A on the large side: Lake Forest, Champaign Centennial, Oak Forest, Grayslake Central, Cary-Grove.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the small side: Bloomington, Kankakee, Dunlap, Washington, Chatham Glenwood.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Lake Zurich,<\/a> Batavia,<\/a> Libertyville,<\/a> Grant.<\/a><\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Hononegah, St. Laurence, Argo, Maine West,<\/a> Carmel.<\/a><\/p>\n Class 7A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 1800-2283<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 6A on the large side: Quincy, Lake Zurich, Batavia, Libertyville, Grant.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the small side: Hononegah, St. Laurence, Argo, Maine West, Carmel.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville,<\/a> Andrew, DePaul Prep,<\/a> Yorkville,<\/a> Hoffman Estates<\/a>.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East,<\/a> Plainfield South,<\/a> Glenbard West,<\/a> Plainfield North,<\/a> Belleville East.<\/p>\n Class 8A<\/p>\n Enrollment range: 2311 and up<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 7A on the large side: Edwardsville, Andrew, DePaul Prep, Yorkville, Hoffman Estates.<\/p>\n Teams closest to the bubble and in Class 8A on the small side: Glenbard East, Plainfield South, Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Belleville East.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"History doesn\u2019t always repeat itself. 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