Biggest steals among top 50 picks<\/p>\n
A\u00a0steal\u00a0is the nice way to classify a prospect who tumbled down draft boards.<\/p>\n
A year ago,\u00a0the 2024 consensus big board<\/a>\u00a0suggested players like Jared Verse (No. 10 on the big board, drafted 19th) and Cooper DeJean (No. 24, drafted 40th) were steals for the Rams and Eagles, respectively. Their rookie seasons indicated that might be true.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s draft<\/a> will be remembered for the fall of,\u00a0and lesson taught to<\/a>, Shedeur Sanders<\/a>, but plenty of other top-50 talent also went later than expected.<\/p>\n Since I\u2019m being positive here, let\u2019s calculate the added value their new teams get to enjoy. Let\u2019s find the difference between each prospect\u2019s ranking on The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0consensus big board<\/a>\u00a0and actual draft<\/a> position:<\/p>\n Why did those top seven players fall? Who are they? Quickly:<\/p>\n Jets: CB Azareye\u2019h Thomas, Florida State (+31).\u00a0<\/p>\n A surprising pick considering the talent already in their secondary, but the 20-year-old Thomas fits HC Aaron Glenn\u2019s brand<\/a>: \u201cTough, physical, violent, aggressive, resilient.\u201d A strong press coverage corner, Thomas fell due to questions about his long speed and ball skills. The Jets happily added a second-round talent and potential long-term starting corner at pick 73. Well done.<\/p>\n Bills: Edge Landon Jackson, Arkansas (+31).\u00a0<\/p>\n Buffalo\u2019s offseason mission<\/a> was to improve their defense. Sure, spending their first five picks on that side of the ball was a tad shocking, but then again, Bills Mafia will love this 6-foot-6, 264-pounder. Jackson plans to make an immediate impact<\/a>: \u201cLove the way they have me schemed up. They got me playing true D-end, 5-technique all the way to wide-9.\u201d A potential first-rounder, Jackson offers a strong option behind starters Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa.<\/p>\n Cardinals: CB Will Johnson, Michigan (+33).\u00a0Initially projected as a top-five pick in Dane Brugler\u2019s\u00a0first 2025 mock draft<\/a>, the 6-foot-2, 202-pound Johnson looks like a prototypical corner \u2014 an anonymous coach told Bruce Feldman<\/a> that Johnson is built like Patrick Surtain II. But teams were concerned with his speed, effort and inconsistent 2024, which ended early due to injuries. He fell to Arizona, where he seems likely to start in Week 1. Here\u2019s a glimpse of what quarterbacks in the pass-happy NFC West can expect:<\/p>\n Ravens: Edge Mike Green, Marshall (+45).\u00a0<\/p>\n Were the off-field concerns a warning sign for the Ravens? On the field, the team immediately improved their middling pass-rush group with a top-10 talent. It\u00a0was controversial<\/a>, but at No. 59, Baltimore felt willing to draft someone they\u2019d considered in the first round. GM Eric DeCosta said that the Ravens did a \u201cthorough\u201d investigation of the sexual assault allegations, which have been denied by Green.<\/p>\n Falcons: S Xavier Watts, Notre Dame (+46).<\/p>\n The draft\u2019s second-best top-50 value was snatched when Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot traded pick 101 and a 2026 fifth-rounder to move up five spots for Watts, a two-time consensus All-American. Ranking No. 50 on the board, Watts has athleticism, but 4.58 speed concerns. The Falcons had considered Watts a Round 2 prospect and expect him to fit nicely in their zone-heavy scheme next to Jessie Bates III. Beat reporter Josh Kendall has that and more in his draft takeaways<\/a>.<\/p>\n Browns: QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (+112).\u00a0<\/p>\n There are a few theories why Deion Sanders\u2019 son fell as far as he did. I have my own ideas<\/a>, mostly tied to his limited ceiling, but I never expected such a drastic drop. Here\u2019s what others have said:<\/p>\n Our\u00a0Dianna Russini\u00a0heard this<\/a>\u00a0from an NFL executive: \u201cI believe Shedeur approached these visits with teams as a recruiting trip versus a job interview.\u201d Yes, the 23-year-old should have hired an agent to help handle the process.<\/p>\n Sanders, guided by his father, chose not to throw at the East-West Shrine Bowl, nor at the scouting combine. \u201cHe didn\u2019t do himself any favors (with that approach),\u201d\u00a0noted Jeff Howe<\/a>.<\/p>\n On Monday\u2019s edition of \u201cThe Herd<\/a>,\u201d Colin Cowherd shared that an executive told him, \u201cIf (Shedeur) doesn\u2019t go in the first six to eight picks at the top of the second round, then people view him as a backup.\u201d Colin then added, \u201cNobody wants a celebrity backup quarterback.\u201d<\/p>\n Our college football guru Bruce Feldman\u00a0heard this<\/a>\u00a0from an NFL assistant: \u201c(Shedeur\u2019s) got a skill set, but no dominant trait. He\u2019s a backup at this point, and those guys have to be wired for humble support of the starter.\u201d<\/p>\n Regarding Shedeur, who\u2019s still the talk of the draft, no reaction was bigger than that of Mel Kiper Jr.\u00a0Let\u2019s talk about that.<\/p>\n Just Good TV? Mel Kiper delivered<\/p>\n There\u2019s a three-minute clip<\/a> from Saturday\u2019s draft coverage of Mel Kiper Jr. arguing with ESPN colleagues Rece Davis and Louis Riddick about why Sanders fell. Mel\u2019s frustration eventually led him to cry out:<\/p>\n \u201cThe NFL has been CLUELESS for 50 years when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks!\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cClueless\u201d is not the right word, as the first QB drafted becomes the best of his class\u00a040 percent of the time<\/a>, a pretty impressive hit rate. But Kiper\u2019s rant made for an entertaining show, and\u00a0it actually ties into the history of the NFL Draft as a television product.<\/p>\n Back in 1980, when former Commissioner Pete Rozelle agreed to broadcast the draft, he was skeptical it could provide sufficient entertainment. It went\u00a0better than expected<\/a>.<\/p>\n Fourteen years after that debut, a then-34-year-old Kiper lambasted Colts GM Bill Tobin for passing on a quarterback in a\u00a0feud that elevated draft coverage<\/a>\u00a0into must-see TV.<\/p>\n \u201cTo pass up a Trent Dilfer when all you have is Jim Harbaugh, give me a break. That\u2019s why the Colts are picking second every year.\u201d<\/p>\n Tobin didn\u2019t appreciate the slight, responding with the iconic \u201cWho in the hell is Mel Kiper<\/a>?\u201d In that same interview, Tobin said his neighbor, a postal worker, had more credentials than Kiper. Ouch.<\/p>\n Fast forward 31 years, and Kiper remains by far the longest-tenured draft analyst, having worked in the role at ESPN since 1984. He\u2019s had impressive hits \u2014 he was the rare analyst to\u00a0rank Josh Allen as the top player<\/a>\u00a0in 2018 \u2014 and his\u00a0final 2025 mock<\/a>\u00a0was one of the most correct (10 first-round hits).<\/p>\n But like almost everyone else, he sure was wrong about what the NFL thought of Sanders,\u00a0who was Kiper\u2019s QB1 and\u00a0No. 5 overall prospect<\/a>. Kiper\u2019s outbursts on the ESPN broadcast prompted\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s sports media experts to ask if the Sanders fall\u00a0finally broke the long-time analyst<\/a>. Can\u2019t blame them for that question, after Kiper responded to the Browns picking Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel over Sanders by\u00a0exclaiming<\/a>, \u201cDisgusting!\u201d<\/p>\n Maybe a tad too far? It\u2019s an entertainment business, and\u00a0Kiper gave ESPN exactly what it wants<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 opinions that make headlines. Sanders\u2019 fall was the 1A story of the 2025 draft, but Kiper\u2019s reactions competed for 1B.<\/p>\n Next: Bruce Arians shared one reason why Kiper might be right after all.<\/p>\n Coach Speaks: Bruce Arians on QB success<\/p>\n My favorite new reporting vertical at\u00a0The Athletic\u00a0is\u00a0Peak<\/a>. From\u00a0journaling<\/a>\u00a0like Michael Phelps to unpacking the\u00a0leadership<\/a>\u00a0of Drew Brees, these articles help me think about \u201cleadership, personal development and success through the lens of sports.\u201d<\/p>\n Today\u2019s story is about the\u00a0biggest reason young quarterbacks succeed or fail<\/a>. Bruce Arians, Super Bowl champion and former coach of the Cardinals and Buccaneers, explains to our Jayson Jenks when he knew Andrew Luck had what it took to succeed:<\/p>\n Arians asked Luck to diagram a play from earlier in the day.\u00a0While Luck did exactly that, Arians tested him. \u201cThat\u2019s not what I said.\u201d Luck didn\u2019t skip a beat, firing back with \u201cThat\u2019s exactly what you said.\u201d His confidence aced the test.<\/p>\n I knew then that when tough times came \u2014 and they always do for young quarterbacks \u2014 he could handle it. It wouldn\u2019t crumble him. And after all my years in the NFL, I think that\u2019s the No. 1 indicator of whether players in general and quarterbacks in particular will succeed or fail: how they handle failure. \u2014 Bruce Arians on Andrew Luck.<\/p>\n The\u00a0full story<\/a> offers a lesson on handling failure, which I need after suggesting a Bengals-49ers Super Bowl in 2024.<\/p>\n Does Shedeur have confidence? Plenty. Will he apply it to succeed at the next level?\u00a0Share your thoughts here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yesterday\u2019s most-clicked:\u00a0Dane Brugler\u2019s\u00a0\u201cyes-we-know-it\u2019s-too-early\u201d\u00a02026 mock<\/a><\/p>\n \ud83d\udceb Enjoyed this read? Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Athletic\u2019s free daily NFL newsletter in your inbox.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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