{"id":152670,"date":"2025-06-23T16:59:10","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T16:59:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/152670\/"},"modified":"2025-06-23T16:59:10","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T16:59:10","slug":"the-end-of-the-49ers-yac-dynasty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/152670\/","title":{"rendered":"The End of the 49ers YAC Dynasty"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<p>The Kyle Shanahan dynasty has been dethroned!<\/p>\n<p>Our annual look at YAC+ \u2013 yards after catch above replacement \u2013 traditionally begins with us making some sort of joke about this being our annual love letter to Shanahan and the 49ers. Shanahan and his progeny have dominated this stat for nearly an entire decade. The 49ers ranked first from 2018 through 2023, Shanahan\u2019s Falcons ranked first in 2016, and the year between, when Shanahan was still setting up in San Francisco, Sean McVay\u2019s Rams led the league. YAC+ certainly isn\u2019t all scheme, but scheme helps, as does Shanahan\u2019s tendency to draft and develop YAC guys to run his offense. For nearly a decade now, the rest of the league has been literally running to catch up with San Francisco here.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024, however, the 49ers finally fell. They certainly weren\u2019t bad, finishing sixth with a +0.6 YAC+. But that\u2019s one of the biggest year-to-year drops we\u2019ve ever seen, as they lapped the league at +1.6 in 2023 \u2013 they lost essentially an extra yard on every reception. They hadn\u2019t finished under +1.0 since 2020, and hadn\u2019t been this low since that 2017 transition year. They were, in other words, normal good and not all-time good.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, your 2024 champions? The Baltimore Ravens at +1.35, just barely squeaking past the Lions at +1.33. It\u2019s the lowest total for a winner since that injury-plagued 2020 49ers season, but a title is a title. Is this the end of the 49ers\u2019 dominance in YAC? Or just a one-year blip? We can\u2019t answer that question today, not having a crystal ball to predict the future just yet, but we can certainly dive into where Baltimore and Detroit soared and where San Francisco stumbled in our annual look back at last year\u2019s leaderboards.<\/p>\n<p>What is YAC+? YAC+ estimates how much YAC a receiver gained compared to what we would have expected from an average receiver catching passes of similar length in similar down-and-distance situations. This is imperfect\u2014we don\u2019t base YAC+ on what route a player runs, and obviously a go route will have more YAC than a comeback\u2014but it does a fairly good job of telling you if this receiver gets more or less YAC than other receivers with similar usage patterns. You can get the full numbers for every player in\u00a0FTN Football Almanac 2025\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/almanac\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">available for pre-sale!<\/a>), but we\u2019ll cover the highlights today.<\/p>\n<p>2024 Wide Receivers<\/p>\n<p>A total of 91 wide receivers qualified last season, but we\u2019ll just show a dozen from the top and bottom of the rankings to save space here.<\/p>\n<p>Hey there, rook! In 2024, at least, YAC+ was where young wideouts shined. <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/keon-coleman\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Keon Coleman<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/brian-thomas-jr\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brian Thomas Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/xavier-worthy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Xavier Worthy<\/a> were all rookies, with <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/marvin-mims-jr\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Marvin Mims Jr.<\/a> just in his second year. Got an athletic kid you don\u2019t trust to run a full route tree yet? Give \u2018em a couple screens and slants and let them run. Mims nearly laps the field, however, with his +4.0 mark being the highest we\u2019ve seen since <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a> had a +4.2 mark in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Mims was not really used as a traditional wide receiver in 2024, of course. Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell called him the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nfl\/story\/_\/id\/45533457\/nfl-luxury-players-2025-season-best-fourth-wr-backup-qb-swing-tackle-slot-cb-roles#gadget\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">best gadget player in the league<\/a>, being lined up in strange positions to get the ball in his hands and let him make plays with his legs. Mims has been a Pro Bowler in each of his first two seasons as a returner, so even if his route running isn\u2019t up to snuff with top wideouts, it\u2019s clear he\u2019s a weapon with the ball in his hands, and Denver found creative ways to get him involved.<\/p>\n<p>Top Wide Receiver YAC+ Seasons, 2009-2024<\/p>\n<p>Year<br \/>\nPlayer<br \/>\nTeam<br \/>\nTargets<br \/>\nALEX<br \/>\naDOT<br \/>\nYAC+<\/p>\n<p>2019<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/a-j-brown\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A.J. Brown<\/a><br \/>\nTEN<br \/>\n83<br \/>\n4.1<br \/>\n13.2<br \/>\n4.4<\/p>\n<p>2021<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a><br \/>\nSF<br \/>\n117<br \/>\n-0.8<br \/>\n8.7<br \/>\n4.2<\/p>\n<p>2024<br \/>\nMarvin Mims Jr.<br \/>\nDEN<br \/>\n51<br \/>\n-1.9<br \/>\n7.6<br \/>\n4.0<\/p>\n<p>2009<br \/>\nHakeem Nicks<br \/>\nNYG<br \/>\n69<br \/>\n2.0<br \/>\n10.8<br \/>\n3.4<\/p>\n<p>2023<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a><br \/>\nSF<br \/>\n85<br \/>\n-2.9<br \/>\n6.8<br \/>\n3.2<\/p>\n<p>2021<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/jamarr-chase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a><br \/>\nCIN<br \/>\n124<br \/>\n4.3<br \/>\n13.0<br \/>\n3.2<\/p>\n<p>2012<br \/>\nDanario Alexander<br \/>\nSTL<br \/>\n56<br \/>\n3.4<br \/>\n12.0<br \/>\n3.1<\/p>\n<p>2023<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/rashee-rice\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rashee Rice<\/a><br \/>\nKC<br \/>\n100<br \/>\n-4.2<br \/>\n4.8<br \/>\n3.0<\/p>\n<p>2009<br \/>\nPatrick Crayton<br \/>\nDAL<br \/>\n61<br \/>\n0.8<br \/>\n9.5<br \/>\n3.0<\/p>\n<p>2024<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/keon-coleman\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Keon Coleman<\/a><br \/>\nBUF<br \/>\n55<br \/>\n6.2<br \/>\n15.1<br \/>\n2.9<\/p>\n<p>As good as Mims is with the ball in his hands, however, there\u2019s only so much you can do to make up for being used on swings and screens, two of the least valuable routes in football. More than half of Mims\u2019 targets \u2013 30 of 56 \u2013 came on those quick dump-off routes. Mims had 19 DYAR and a -4.3% DVOA on those routes, which is better than league average (-28.1%), but not exceptionally thrilling. There is certainly some value in taking these inefficient routes and making them average-ish, but his success rate was only 53% \u2013 he\u2019s getting the ball in a lot of third-and-long situations, and being asked to try to make some magic happen.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly \u2013 and now we\u2019re getting down into microsplits, so take it with a grain of salt \u2013 Mims had 10 swings\/screens lined up wide, 10 lined up in the slot, 10 lined up in the backfield. His DVOAs? -29.3% lined up out wide, -6.1% in the slot, 22.1% in the backfield. Mims was second to only <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/puka-nacua\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Puka Nacua<\/a> in DYAR generated by a wide receiver in the backfield in 2024; someone with his speed and a wideout\u2019s hands coming from an unusual position like that is a matchup problem for the defense. Denver needs to keep finding creative ways to get the ball into Mims hands, and screens lined up wide do not count.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" class=\"wp-image-84945\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/JaMarr-Chase-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 30: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) reacts after getting a first down during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 30, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson\/Icon Sportswire)\"  \/>CINCINNATI, OH \u2013 SEPTEMBER 30: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja\u2019Marr Chase (1) reacts after getting a first down during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 30, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson\/Icon Sportswire)<\/p>\n<p>We need to highlight <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/jamarr-chase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a>, who was still in the top 10 in YAC+ despite a massive workload. While Mims was producing extra YAC at a nigh-historic rate, he ended up being worth \u201conly\u201d 156 extra yards. Chase added an additional 206 yards with his YAC prowess. It\u2019s not quite his best season in YAC+ \u2013 his rookie year ended up on that top 10 list, after all. But he\u2019s maintained his high level with the ball in his hands even as he\u2019s graduated to a more advanced route tree and drawn more and more coverage his way. \u201cHe\u2019s good after the catch\u201d might not even be in his top three skills, but it\u2019s one more club in his bag and just one more reason he became the highest paid receiver in NFL history this offseason. Hey, if you\u2019re good enough that even the Bengals realize they\u2019ve got to pay you, you know you\u2019re doing something right.<\/p>\n<p>You may note that <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/jameson-williams\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Jameson Williams<\/a> is the only Raven or Lion on this list, so you may wonder how it is the Ravens managed to squeeze past the Lions in the overall YAC+ standings. The trouble is, Williams is the only solid Lions wideout in this stat. While <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/amon-ra-st-brown\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/a> led the league in receiving plus-minus, he was only worth +0.2 in YAC+, while <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/tim-patrick\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tim Patrick<\/a> was at a flat +0.0. Baltimore didn\u2019t have any top wideouts, but <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/zay-flowers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zay Flowers<\/a> (+1.4) and <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/rashod-bateman\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rashod Bateman<\/a> (+0.4) were both very solid. It means the Ravens wide receivers, as a group, had a +1.0 YAC+, while the Lions were only at +0.7. Detroit closes the gap some at tight end, but Baltimore\u2019s gap with their wide receivers ends up being decisive.<\/p>\n<p>We also should mention <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a>. Samuel once again finished high in these rankings, and Washington adding the sixth-place finisher in YAC+ should open some interesting things in their offense. So why were 49ers fans so annoyed with Samuel\u2019s 2024? It\u2019s because Samuel isn\u2019t normally good in this stat. He\u2019s normally amazing. Since Samuel entered the league in 2019, his +3.2 YAC is easily the best for any qualified wideout. The next-highest mark for someone with at least 300 targets is <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/a-j-brown\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A.J. Brown<\/a>\u2019s +1.6, so Samuel really does lap the league here. Since signing his contract extension in 2022, however, that number has fallen to +2.7, and now here is, down with the \u201cmere mortals\u201d. The YAC Bros have been such a major part of San Francisco\u2019s offensive identity that seeing them be mere mortals last season was downright uncanny. Take a look at what San Francisco normally gets out of their offense and what they got last season.<\/p>\n<p>49ers YAC Dynasty YAC+ Numbers<\/p>\n<p>Player<br \/>\n2018-23<br \/>\n2024<br \/>\nDiff<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/george-kittle\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">George Kittle<\/a><br \/>\n2.4<br \/>\n2.4<br \/>\n0.0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a><br \/>\n3.4<br \/>\n1.9<br \/>\n-1.5<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/brandon-aiyuk\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brandon Aiyuk<\/a><br \/>\n0.9<br \/>\n0.1<br \/>\n-0.8<\/p>\n<p>Bourne\/Jennings\/Pearsall<br \/>\n0.3<br \/>\n-0.8<br \/>\n-1.1<\/p>\n<p>Running Backs<br \/>\n0.9<br \/>\n0.4<br \/>\n-0.5<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/george-kittle\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">George Kittle<\/a> remains <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/george-kittle\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">George Kittle<\/a> and the running back situation will be helped if <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/christian-mccaffrey\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Christian McCaffrey<\/a> is healthy. (Editor: can we make that \u201cif\u201d size 832 font and flashing bright red? Maybe making a loud siren sound of some sort? Thanks.) It\u2019s the collapse of the wide receiver room that ended up ending the 49ers\u2019 YAC+ winning streak, and nowhere was that collapse larger than with Deebo. And with him gone, the question is who will replace him, and the answer is \u2026 no one. There\u2019s no one in the league quite like prime <a href=\"https:\/\/ftnfantasy.com\/nfl\/player\/deebo-samuel\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Deebo Samuel<\/a>. The other great single-season YAC guys either developed into more well-rounded receivers or fizzled out as one-year wonders. There\u2019s not really a precedent for the uber-gadget guy remaining extremely valuable for year after year. And because Samuel gets a diet of the shortest routes in the game, and because his hands are well below par for a wideout, he lives and dies with his YAC+. If he\u2019s just good at it, it doesn\u2019t overcome the other holes in his game. He needs to be otherworldly. And he often is. Maybe he will be again, healthier and in a new environment. We\u2019ll wait and see.<\/p>\n<p>Below, you\u2019ll find the bottom wide receivers as well as the numbers for the best and worst tight ends and running backs plus all quarterbacks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"&#13; The Kyle Shanahan dynasty has been dethroned! Our annual look at YAC+ \u2013 yards after catch above&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":152671,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2080],"tags":[220,7,6170,6,1161,252,2624,2623],"class_list":{"0":"post-152670","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-francisco-49ers","8":"tag-49ers","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-football-outsiders","11":"tag-nfl","12":"tag-san-francisco","13":"tag-san-francisco-49ers","14":"tag-sanfrancisco","15":"tag-sanfrancisco49ers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/114733748646140941","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}