{"id":159854,"date":"2025-06-26T11:40:15","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T11:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/159854\/"},"modified":"2025-06-26T11:40:15","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T11:40:15","slug":"how-many-college-football-teams-could-have-won-a-national-title-with-nick-saban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/159854\/","title":{"rendered":"How many college football teams could have won a national title with Nick Saban?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Editor\u2019s note: This story is a part of No Wrong Answers, a series that explores the college sports questions you\u2019ve always been curious about \u2014 and the ones you never thought to ask. Read our attempt to figure out which college football team has the most fans here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Before Nick Saban became the greatest coach of all time, he was calculated about the jobs he took. The LSU and Alabama programs he inherited were underachievers that still had great recruiting footprints, top-tier resources, storied traditions and everything else that adds up to championship potential. Saban turned them into champions again. But what if Saban chose differently?<\/p>\n

What if, instead of pursuing distressed assets, he went after a bigger fixer-upper \u2014 or a program that was never up in the first place? That leads us to this hypothetical with no wrong answers.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s say Saban left Alabama after winning it all in 2015. What\u2019s the worst program the best version of the best coach in college football history could have led to a national title? Could he have lived out the video game dynasty mode<\/a> fantasy of turning a low-prestige program into a champion? What limits would there have been to Saban\u2019s power?<\/p>\n

To come up with a good-faith, albeit unscientific, answer, The Athletic examined six critical factors, from on-field metrics to talent to money. We identified every FBS program\u2019s historic norms, quantified Alabama\u2019s growth under Saban \u2014 let\u2019s call it the Saban Effect \u2014 and then determined whether he could have pushed that school past the threshold necessary to win a national championship.<\/p>\n

Our process took us from 133 potential candidates \u2014 every FBS incumbent except for Alabama (no need to game that one out) \u2014 to a list of 33 programs. The final list of possible title winners includes obvious headliners, a couple of surprises and one very tantalizing what-if.<\/p>\n

At the end, we survey our staff for their thoughts. Let us know who you think Saban could have won a championship with in the comments.<\/p>\n

Factor 1: On-field success<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unreasonable to think that even Saban could lead perennial cellar-dwellers like UMass<\/a> or his alma mater, Kent State, to a national championship. So we used two sets of advanced metrics to lop off the bottom chunk of the FBS. Bear with us for a little wonky math that\u2019s not as complicated as it sounds.<\/p>\n

ESPN\u2019s Football Power Index<\/a> (FPI) and Sports Reference\u2019s Simple Rating System<\/a> (SRS) both crunch numbers beyond wins and losses to compare teams to the national average. For broad context, the best teams\u2019 ratings are generally above 20, and the worst teams are below negative-20.<\/p>\n

Before Saban (2005-06), Alabama\u2019s FPI average was 11.6. During his 2010-13 peak, the Crimson Tide\u2019s average FPI was 29. Subtract Saban\u2019s starting point from his peak, and we see how much better he made the Crimson Tide: a Saban Effect of 17.4.<\/p>\n

With SRS, we compared the four years before Saban to a different elite stretch (2017-20). The Saban Effect (17.1) was about the same.<\/p>\n

Still with us? Good.<\/p>\n

Our next step was to establish the advanced-metrics floor for title winners. Aside from 2010 Auburn \u2014 not even Saban can clone Cam Newton<\/a> \u2014 the lowest FPI for a recent national champion was 24 (Saban\u2019s 2009 Crimson Tide). In SRS, it was 20 (2016 Clemson).<\/p>\n

Because the Saban Effect boosts his new team by about 17, a program needed a baseline of 6.6 in FPI and 2.9 in SRS to reach the championship floor. Our grading was generous; a program passed if it averaged those figures over any four-season stint since 2005.<\/p>\n

This category knocked out 70 teams, including Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Virginia and Wake Forest at the Power 4 level \u2014 plus Toledo, Saban\u2019s first head coaching job in 1990.<\/p>\n

The only teams outside the current Power 4 to live on? Pac-12 holdovers Oregon State and Washington State, plus Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis and South Florida.<\/p>\n

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Factor 2: Recruiting average<\/p>\n

You can\u2019t win championships without loaded recruiting classes, and nobody in modern college football history has amassed talent on the recruiting trail like Saban. We used the same thought process as in Factor 1 to determine whether adding Saban\u2019s recruiting prowess could build a championship-level roster at each school. We assumed any program that hires him will provide the staff and infrastructure necessary to sign top-tier classes \u2026 as long as they\u2019re financially able to do so (we\u2019ll come back to that).<\/p>\n

We used Rivals<\/a>\u2019 rankings because its data goes back farthest, and we excluded Saban\u2019s 2007 transition class, signed just after he became head coach.<\/p>\n

Alabama recruiting pre-Saban (2002-06)<\/p>\n

Average class ranking: 24.6
\nAverage star ranking per signee: 3.15<\/p>\n

Alabama recruiting with Saban (2008-23)<\/p>\n

Average class ranking: 1.9
\nAverage star ranking per signee:\u00a0 4.11<\/p>\n

That data gives us a Saban Effect of about 23 spots in the class rankings and almost one full star per recruit.<\/p>\n

To find the recruiting floor for a national championship, we analyzed the four classes before a team\u2019s title run (those hauls formed the bulk of every depth chart). All but 2010 Auburn averaged a top-12 ranking or better, and nearly every champion since 2005 averaged at least 3.6 stars per signee. Those thresholds mean a team\u2019s historical average must be a top-35 recruiting class or 2.6 stars to rise to championship contention with the Saban Effect.<\/p>\n

This factor eliminates the remaining teams outside the Power 4, except for Oregon State. Though BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF were weighed down by their time outside a Power 4 conference, none have signed a top-35 class since joining the Big 12, either.<\/p>\n

The list of 53 contenders still includes Cal (which hit both criteria) along with Kansas, Boston College, Northwestern and Rutgers (which survived based on their recruits\u2019 average star ranking).<\/p>\n

Two other caveats: We ignored the transfer portal as a workaround because Saban relied mostly on high school prospects during his Alabama tenure. And because his Crimson Tide recruited so well nationally \u2014 he plucked superstars everywhere from Texas, Florida, California, New Jersey and Hawaii \u2014 we didn\u2019t consider geography or proximity to talent, which were inherent advantages Saban had at Alabama.<\/p>\n

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Factor 3: Five-star ceiling<\/p>\n

This one is slightly arbitrary but simple. Even though Saban is a historically great recruiter, it\u2019s unrealistic to expect him to sign several elite prospects annually at a school that has no track record of doing so. Our proof-of-concept requirement: at least one five-star signee in any of the 24 classes of the modern recruiting era.<\/p>\n

Kansas\u2019 title hopes end here, along with Baylor, Iowa State, Minnesota and Northwestern. Georgia Tech\u2019s out, too, because Calvin Johnson was merely a four-star prospect by Rivals.<\/p>\n

But three-time Pro Bowler DeSean Jackson was a five-star talent, which helped Cal advance. The top junior college signee of 2008, defensive lineman Simu Kuli<\/a>, keeps Oregon State in the mix, just as the No. 25 recruit in the 2004 class, linebacker Brian Toal, pushes Boston College to the next phase.<\/p>\n

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Factor 4: Money<\/p>\n

Even if a school is willing to install and implement Saban\u2019s famed \u201cProcess,\u201d it has to have the money to fund his army of analysts while competing in the arms races of facilities and NIL.<\/p>\n

In the three years before Saban\u2019s arrival, Alabama reported an average of $46.9 million in football revenue to the U.S. Department of Education. In the three years after his arrival, the Crimson Tide reported $64.6 million. We\u2019ll expect a proportional bounce for other schools, so the Saban Effect is a 38 percent income bump based on the wins and booster buzz he\u2019d provide.<\/p>\n

Because fiscal years don\u2019t overlap cleanly with football seasons, the numbers are squishy. But almost every national champion since 2005 has ranked among the top 10 in football expenses around its title run. A 38 percent increase in football revenue still wasn\u2019t enough to jolt the budgets of Boston College, Cal, Oregon State and Rutgers consistently to that level. We\u2019ll assume they can\u2019t give Saban the resources he demands, so they\u2019re the next group to go.<\/p>\n

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Factor 5: NFL Draft<\/p>\n

Because elite talent doesn\u2019t always lead to championships, we also have to consider how well that talent was developed. The NFL Draft is an imperfect but instructive barometer.<\/p>\n

Average NFL Draft picks<\/p>\n

Pre-Saban (2003-07): 4.2 per year
\nSaban Era (2008-24): 7.8 per year
\nSaban Effect: 3.6 per year<\/p>\n

Since Saban\u2019s 2011 title team, most national champions have produced about 30 picks over the next three drafts. A reasonable floor was 18 (the number of draftees from Trevor Lawrence\u2019s 2018 Clemson team).<\/p>\n

If the Saban Effect alone provides 10.8 picks over three seasons, the team itself must produce 7.2. That\u2019s an average of 2.4 picks per year. If a program hasn\u2019t been able to clear that relatively low bar since 2000, it probably lacks the infrastructure required for Saban to lift the team to the top.<\/p>\n

This factor knocks out Arizona, Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the flagship school of Saban\u2019s home state. Our list is down to 35, with Arizona State (2.46 picks per year) barely squeaking through.<\/p>\n

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Factor 6: Proven potential<\/p>\n

Like five-star recruiting, this final category is simple and somewhat arbitrary. It\u2019s hard to think a team is capable of winning a national championship if it has never flashed championship potential. Both Alabama and LSU won titles before Saban, and both had a 10-win season in the four years before his arrival.<\/p>\n

Our proof-of-concept bar is lower. We mandated at least one AP top-10 finish since 1992 (the year of Alabama\u2019s last pre-Saban crown). That means we must say goodbye to Pitt and North Carolina State, the latter of which has never finished in the top 10.<\/p>\n

Their exits leave us with this final list of 33 programs (plus Alabama) that could have won a national championship with the peak version of Nick Saban:<\/p>\n

Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, the group includes every national champion since Colorado and Georgia Tech split the crown in 1990.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Michigan State question<\/p>\n

The Spartans, who haven\u2019t won a national title since 1966, are the most intriguing option because Saban coached there from 1995-99. He went 25-22-1 over his first four seasons before a 9-2, top-10 breakthrough that springboarded him to LSU.<\/p>\n

You can use his mixed Michigan State tenure as evidence that Saban couldn\u2019t build a champion without the elite resources, tradition and recruiting pull of a marquee program like LSU or Alabama. In that case, the list is probably smaller than 33.<\/p>\n

You can also reach the opposite conclusion. Perhaps Saban simply needed time to amass enough talent to revamp a program that had only one top-10 finish in the previous quarter century. Or maybe the early struggles at his first head coaching job in a major conference provided the teachable moments that turned him into the greatest coach ever.<\/p>\n

What if he stayed in East Lansing for the long haul? That\u2019s a what-if for another day.<\/p>\n

The worst program Saban could have led to a national title is \u2026<\/p>\n

Of our final 33 contenders, nine have not claimed a national championship in the AP poll era (since 1936). Oregon and Virginia Tech have both played for a title since the BCS began, so set them aside, too.<\/p>\n

Our answer, then, is on this worst-of-the-best list: Arizona State, Louisville, North Carolina, South Carolina, Stanford, Utah and Wisconsin. By our numbers, the weakest remaining option is \u2026<\/p>\n

Louisville!<\/p>\n

The Cardinals are the only one without a top-five finish since 1990 and had the lowest average FPI. Their recruiting rankings were virtually tied with Utah at the bottom of the top tier, and the Sun Devils were the only contender with lower NFL Draft production. Louisville\u2019s perch in the ACC also provides a power conference starting point with an easier route to the Playoff.<\/p>\n

Pair a Saban defense with 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and a national title doesn\u2019t seem outlandish.<\/p>\n

Who else belongs in the discussion?<\/p>\n

To add a human element to the debate, we surveyed 17 of The Athletic\u2019s college sports staffers for their thoughts. Baylor and Texas Tech (12 votes each) are the top contenders that didn\u2019t crack our above list. Multiple staffers said Saban could have won titles at Maryland and Virginia. Scott Dochterman picked Louisville as Saban\u2019s worst potential championship for the reasons cited above. Other answers included:<\/p>\n

West Virginia: \u201cHe would sign all his boys from his hometown and turn them into studs that crushed everyone with their toughness and physicality.\u201d \u2014 Grace Raynor<\/p>\n

Stanford: \u201cI\u2019m really intrigued by if he could have won at Stanford in their heyday (which was not that many years ago) \u2026 Could he have made Christian McCaffrey even more dominant?\u201d \u2014 Lindsay Schnell\u00a0<\/p>\n

South Carolina: \u201cThe Gamecocks\u2019 only three top-10 seasons came under one Hall of Fame coach (Steve Spurrier), and another (Lou Holtz) never fared better than the Outback Bowl. But both were in their final years. If Spurrier could win 11 games three times during the Saban era while nearing retirement, it\u2019s not a stretch to think peak Saban could have elevated the Gamecocks to an even higher level and won a national title.\u201d \u2014 Matt Baker<\/p>\n

Michigan State: \u201cIronically, Michigan State is probably the worst program that I thought Saban could lead to a national championship, which he left to go win a national championship at LSU. Also, everyone in the SEC could\/would win it all with Saban other than Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.\u201d \u2014 Pete Sampson\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington: \u201cAnd even that I thought was a stretch. I firmly believe that in college football its nature over nurture when it comes to the ability to contend for a national title. Even the greatest coach of all-time needs the right conditions. Saban himself recognized that. Which is why he ended up at Alabama in the first place.\u201d \u2014 Ralph D. Russo<\/p>\n

Of the 68 Power 4 teams, 17 schools received unanimous support for being able to win a national title under Saban: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC.<\/p>\n

Apologies to the six schools that received zero votes: Kansas, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.<\/p>\n

How 17 of The Athletic’s staffers voted<\/p>\n

Who do you think is the worst program Saban could have led to a national title? What other No Wrong Answers topics would you like to see? Let us know in the comments.<\/p>\n

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb \/ The Athletic; photo: Joe Robbins \/ Icon Sportswire \/ Getty, iStock; graphics: Thomas Oide \/ The Athletic)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Editor\u2019s note: This story is a part of No Wrong Answers, a series that explores the college sports…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":159855,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[9436,4715,4707,843,331,4706,7643,4709,4713,7,4716,5042,4728,4725,1286,4720,4719,4722,577,1868,3364,2972,2549,71,22805,4727,4712,49,48,4604,4714,4717,8243,69,1787,4723,2743,3861,4729,4726,4710,4431,3862,4724,5041,1078,4721,4711,22804,4708,4718,3863,3201,1300,2785],"class_list":{"0":"post-159854","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-baylor-bears","9":"tag-boston-college-eagles","10":"tag-cincinnati-bearcats","11":"tag-clemson-tigers","12":"tag-college-football","13":"tag-connecticut-huskies","14":"tag-duke-blue-devils","15":"tag-east-carolina-pirates","16":"tag-florida-state-seminoles","17":"tag-football","18":"tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","19":"tag-houston-cougars","20":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","21":"tag-indiana-hoosiers","22":"tag-iowa-hawkeyes","23":"tag-iowa-state-cyclones","24":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","25":"tag-kansas-state-wildcats","26":"tag-louisville-cardinals","27":"tag-maryland-terrapins","28":"tag-memphis-tigers","29":"tag-miami-hurricanes","30":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","31":"tag-michigan-wolverines","32":"tag-middle-tennessee-blue-raider","33":"tag-minnesota-golden-gophers","34":"tag-navy-midshipmen","35":"tag-ncaa","36":"tag-ncaa-football","37":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","38":"tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","39":"tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","40":"tag-northwestern-wildcats","41":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","42":"tag-oklahoma-sooners","43":"tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","44":"tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","45":"tag-pittsburgh-panthers","46":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","47":"tag-rutgers-scarlet-knights","48":"tag-smu-mustangs","49":"tag-south-florida-bulls","50":"tag-syracuse-orange","51":"tag-tcu-horned-frogs","52":"tag-temple-owls","53":"tag-texas-longhorns","54":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","55":"tag-tulane-green-wave","56":"tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","57":"tag-ucf-knights","58":"tag-virginia-cavaliers","59":"tag-virginia-tech-hokies","60":"tag-wake-forest-demon-deacons","61":"tag-west-virginia-mountaineers","62":"tag-wisconsin-badgers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/159854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=159854"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/159854\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/159855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=159854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=159854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=159854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}