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NFL divisional round overreactions<\/p>\n
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the divisional round of the NFL playoffs as the championship game matchups are set.<\/p>\n
Sports Seriously<\/p>\n
And then there were four.<\/p>\n
The NFL\u2019s 2024 postseason field has been reduced to its final quartet of teams with the conference championship games set to be played this Sunday<\/a>. There are historical ramifications everywhere you look, adding layers of flavor to what should already be a pair of riveting matchups, both regular-season rematches.<\/p>\n How much separates the remaining clubs? Very likely less than the point spreads indicate, so we\u2019ve ranked the four teams \u2013 from worst to best \u2013 which still have a chance to play in Super Sunday 59 in terms of their championship viability, aka playoff power rankings (previous rank in parentheses):<\/p>\n 4. Buffalo Bills (5)<\/p>\n Zero disrespect intended, dearest Mafia members. Think of your Bills as fourth of 32, not four of four \u2013 but some superlative squad has to be slotted here, and only one must face a dynasty on the verge of added distinction. No doubt Buffalo did what it needed to win Sunday against Baltimore. Also, no doubt that the Ravens made rare mistakes \u2013 namely by QB Lamar Jackson<\/a> and TE Mark Andrews<\/a> \u2013 that greatly helped the Bills’ cause. Nevertheless, with that hurdle cleared, the perennial AFC East champions and their banged-up secondary must hit the road, where they were 5-4 this season, in a bid to defeat the perennial AFC West champion Chiefs \u2013 a team that\u2019s 3-0 against Buffalo in the playoffs with QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid at the controls (all those wins in the past four years). Two months after handing K.C. its first loss of the 2024 campaign<\/a> \u2013 the Bills were helped by two uncharacteristic turnovers from Mahomes, who hasn\u2019t given the ball away in his seven games since \u2013 can Buffalo, which is a two-point underdog (per BetMGM), upend the reigning champs again? If so, the Bills would be one victory shy of their first championship since they lorded over the AFL in the mid-1960s.<\/p>\n 3. Philadelphia Eagles (3)<\/p>\n They\u2019re currently 6-point favorites to beat the Commanders, whom they split their season series with, though QB Jalen Hurts was concussed early in the second game \u2013 and probably won\u2019t be fully healthy for the rubber match. That\u2019s a real concern. Hurts\u2019 mobility is a huge aspect of his effectiveness \u2013 whether for navigating the pocket, leaving it or using his typically strong legs to tunnel into the end zone on Philly\u2019s patented \u201ctush push.\u201d He opened the scoring against the Rams last weekend with a 44-yard TD scamper but, after suffering seven sacks and even more punishment throughout the day, Hurts could barely safeguard himself on a balky knee by game’s end. Never known for his prowess as a pure passer (129.5 yards per game in postseason), if Hurts is rendered one-dimensional, so, too, might an offense that\u2019s so reliant on RB Saquon Barkley \u2013 and he definitely would have been the focus of Washington\u2019s defense game plan under any circumstances. Barkley needs 148 more yards to break Hall of Famer Terrell Davis\u2019 single-season rushing record (playoffs included) of 2,476 yards in 1998. Yet aside from Barkley\u2019s heroics, Philadelphia also might have the best defense (+6 turnover differential in postseason), which should have rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) back, and offensive line in the league \u2013 and those units might be enough to carry the NFC East champions past Washington.<\/p>\n 2. Washington Commanders (7)<\/p>\n If playoff performance was part of the equation when considering who the league MVP should be<\/a>, then rookie Jayden Daniels<\/a> might be the front-runner. He\u2019s the first rookie quarterback to win two road games in one postseason in this franchise’s 93-year history. The road warrior Commanders will try to go 3-0 in a playoff where home teams are currently 8-0 in matchups that don\u2019t involve them. And good as Philadelphia\u2019s defense is \u2013 it allowed the fewest points in the NFC during the regular season and fewest on a per-game basis league-wide when including postseason \u2013 Daniels burned it for five touchdown passes last month. But this has hardly been a one-man show. Going back to his Dallas days, HC Dan Quinn\u2019s own D has usually done a nice job containing Hurts, and it\u2019s currently accomplishing what it\u2019s designed to do \u2013 make big plays, including six playoff takeaways. Washington\u2019s run game also came to life with 182 yards last weekend. The Commanders are currently hitting all their marks and might just be the first team to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie behind center.<\/p>\n 1. Kansas City Chiefs (1)<\/p>\n We know, they don\u2019t really pass the eyeball test<\/a>. Good thing that’s not the measure of a group that’s consistently failed it well before this season but has nevertheless won 22 of its past 24 games, one of those defeats occurring earlier this month in Denver when the Chiefs’ key starters sat. Mahomes and Reid are also 11-2 in postseason at Arrowhead, including two victories over Buffalo. And if you want to argue that core players like TE Travis Kelce and DL Chris Jones are past their primes or at the end of them, well, sure didn\u2019t look like it last Saturday against Houston<\/a>, both appearing fresh and in typically dominant January form. Allen erupted against this defense in the playoff classic these teams played three years ago, won 42-36 by the Chiefs in overtime. Otherwise, K.C. has reduced Buffalo’s leading man to a mortal as a postseason passer, though has had difficulty containing him as a runner (Allen averaged 76 rushing yards in the three previous matchups). But the Chiefs are healthy, having played in one meaningful game since Christmas, and should be well prepared given the time Reid and his staff have had for advance planning. Lastly, history seems to be on the side of an operation that\u2019s been at least somewhat focused for a year on making more of it as the first-ever franchise to pull off a Super Bowl three-peat.<\/p>\n All NFL news on and off the field.\u00a0Sign up<\/a>\u00a0for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter.<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter,\u00a0@ByNateDavis<\/a>.<\/p>\n