*All Odds Acquired from FanDuel Sportsbook<\/p>\n
The AFC has been a gauntlet in recent years. While the Chiefs have typically dominated the conference, there are plenty of teams that believe they can challenge Kansas City for the crown this year.<\/p>\n
With sportsbooks having released their over\/under in wins for each NFL team, here\u2019s a prediction for how each AFC team will fare relative to their predicted win total:<\/p>\n
Buffalo Bills \u2013 OVER 11.5<\/p>\n
The Buffalo Bills didn\u2019t make any significant changes in the offseason, and that is probably for the best. They brought in Joey Bosa<\/a> who could provide value in what was a shallow DE group, but Bosa has struggled to stay on the field and hasn\u2019t quite fulfilled his lofty pre-draft expectations.<\/p>\n Still, the Bills have been a team focused on January, and that isn\u2019t likely to change in 2025 as long as Josh Allen<\/a> is their QB.<\/p>\n It will be interesting to see how the Bills handle throwing the ball when teams inevitably take away YAC opportunities. For reference<\/a>, the Bills leading receiver was Khalil Shakir<\/a> with 821 yards, 597 of which were YAC. Amari Cooper<\/a> did not solve that problem like the Bills had hoped, so that will be in interesting offensive situation to monitor. Still, the division is still firmly in their control, and they have the 5th easiest schedule (based on opponent projected win totals<\/a>). 2025 should resemble 2024.<\/p>\n Baltimore Ravens \u2013 OVER 11.5<\/p>\n It may seem overly bold to suggest the over for the two highest projected win total teams. However, this Ravens team is truly just that good, and got better.<\/p>\n They were gifted CB Jaire Alexander<\/a> from Green Bay and stole S Malakai Starks out of Georgia in the draft. The flaw in the 2024 Ravens was their second-to-last ranked<\/a> passing defense, and they mended it.<\/p>\n Offensively, the Ravens might be the best team in the entire league. Lamar Jackson<\/a> is a one man army on his own, but Baltimore\u2019s roster and scheme have maximized his potential.<\/p>\n The most jaw-dropping stat from last year regarding the Ravens and their stellar rushing attack? 1821 yards<\/a> BEFORE contact. They had the best offensive EPA since 2009<\/a>, and didn\u2019t lose any major pieces. Buy all the Ravens stock you can.<\/p>\n Kansas City Chiefs \u2013 UNDER 11.5<\/p>\n The Chiefs are a paradox: they are one of the most successful teams of the century, and they\u2019re also not that good. That tightrope walk might finally have reached its end.<\/p>\n Kansas City showed its inadequacies on the biggest stage possible in New Orleans. Philadelphia outclassed them in every aspect of the game in a 40-22 routing that was not as close as that score suggests.<\/p>\n Two Super Bowl wins out of three straight appearances is nothing to sneeze at, but losing a Super Bowl takes a toll on teams. Deebo Samuel<\/a> unpacked<\/a> what losing against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII felt like, revealing that it \u2018puts you in a depression\u2019. The Chiefs will be fighting that emotional battle in 2025, as well as returning mostly the same roster that looked like a JV squad in comparison to Philly.<\/p>\n KC went 11-0 in one score games in 2024, have one of the harder schedules in the league this year, playing in a gauntlet of a division, and Travis Kelce<\/a> and Chris Jones<\/a> are not spring chickens anymore. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, but 2025 looks to be a steep uphill climb.<\/p>\n “Losing a Super Bowl bro\u2026 it puts you in a depression.”<\/p>\n 49ers WR Deebo Samuel reflects on the impact losing two Super Bowls had on him. pic.twitter.com\/i821dHxqlr<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 St. Brown Podcast (@StBrownPodcast) January 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Los Angeles Chargers \u2013 OVER 9.5<\/p>\n The Los Angeles Chargers reclamation project, spearheaded by Jim Harbaugh<\/a>, is close to completion. The Chargers had a pretty good 2024, ending with 11 wins and 11th in points per play<\/a>. It might not seem like all that impressive on the surface, but looking deeper into what the Chargers are unearths some pretty positive road markers.<\/p>\n First, their passing offense was sizably better than their rushing offense. That\u2019s right, a Greg Roman\/Jim Harbaugh rushing game was worse than their passing game. That\u2019s a compliment to Herbert\u2019s ability, but also a sign that the Chargers can build into their core identity even more. Adding G Mekhi Becton<\/a> to the offensive line will create a legitimate three headed monster of O-Linemen with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. First round pick Omarion Hampton running behind them will give them more explosive potential as well.<\/p>\n What really was the catalyst for L.A. was the defense, though. They had the fifth total<\/a> defensive EPA in 2024, were first in total<\/a> team defense, and did it all without getting to the QB in any major way. Their defensive roster was somewhat of a rag-tag group that lacked any premier talent outside of Derwin James<\/a>. DC Jesse Minter did a phenomenal job of maximizing the roster.<\/p>\n Going forward, it\u2019s believable the Chargers will be one of the primary Super Bowl contenders once they are fully made in Harbaugh\u2019s image. Short-term, 2025 will likely much resemble 2024, just with more balance offensively.<\/p>\n Houston Texans \u2013 PUSH 9.5<\/p>\n It always feels like the Texans are just this close to being an elite team. If it\u2019s not the QB, it\u2019s the coaching. If it\u2019s not the coaching, it\u2019s the defense. C.J. Stroud<\/a> had a bit of a sophomore slump numbers wise, but the overall offense was a mess. Bobby Slowik went from water-cooler head coaching prospect to out of a job in just two years. Replacement OC Nick Caley is an unknown, but the goal for Houston should be stability.<\/p>\n The defense is stacked with talent, and they invested in WR through the draft. Largely, though, the Texans are not overreacting and running it back. Expect more of the same in 2025.<\/p>\n Denver Broncos \u2013 OVER 9.5<\/p>\n In the wake of owner Pat Bowlen\u2019s passing, Denver has undergone the longest stretch of football ineptitude in franchise history. Many factors from all corners of the organization contributed to the decade-long run of subpar results, but things seem to be falling in place.<\/p>\n The Walton-Penner ownership group finally provided stability at the very top, allowing the team to operate like they\u2019re meant to. Since his arrival, Sean Peyton has been able to reshape the team, and its reinforced that he is still among the best in the business.<\/p>\n Under rookie Bo Nix<\/a>, who had an amazing season that wins Rookie of the Year most Jayden Daniel-less years, the Broncos offense used elite play design, O-Line play, and screen game to make up for the lack of skill position talent. A more underrated note is that Nix will get another offseason to learn Peyton\u2019s complex system. Two consecutive years with the same OC is something he\u2019s never had in his college or pro career.<\/p>\n On the other side, the defense was truly Denver\u2019s anchor, and it got better in the offseason. They had the best<\/a> DEPA in 2024, the Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain<\/a> II, and added impact 49ers Dre Greenlaw<\/a> and Talanoa Hufanga<\/a> in free agency. The defense, with DC Vance Joseph<\/a>\u2018s simple and fast scheme, will make opposing QB\u2019s lives hell.<\/p>\n Their pash-rush was maybe the league\u2019s best unit in 2024, which eases pressure on the secondary that brings back the reigning DPOY, stand-out Riley Moss<\/a>, and adds first-round pick nickel Jahdae Barron and Tufunga. The Broncos did all the right things in the offseason and doubled down on their strengths. The AFC West might be Mile High bound in 2025.<\/p>\n Steelers \u2013 OVER 8.5<\/p>\n From now on, if a team goes 9-7 they should be awarded a Steelers badge on their jersey for the next season.<\/p>\n This recent Steelers offseason has been confounding. With a busy blend of good moves and questionable ones, it seems that they\u2019re right back where they started at \u2014 mediocre.<\/p>\n Trading for DK Metcalf, just to trade George Pickens<\/a> (accounting for certain character concerns<\/a>) still leaves them with one reliable receiver. All-Pro CB Minkah Fitzpatrick<\/a> was traded to Miami to acquire All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey<\/a>, who\u2019s two years older. Pittsburgh moved off Russell Wilson<\/a> to bring in Aaron Rodgers<\/a> \u2014 one well-out-of-his-prime QB for another. They let Najee Harris<\/a> go and drafted Kaleb Johnson<\/a>, who happens to play very similarly to Harris, out of Iowa.<\/p>\n It seems like the Steelers have taken three right turns to go left. Seeing Pittsburgh overtake Baltimore or Cincinnati in the division feels like a stretch. It makes their recent choice to extend<\/a> GM Omar Khan look more than somewhat problematic.<\/p>\n Cincinnati Bengals \u2013 PUSH 9.5<\/p>\n The Bengals are if Harvey Dent was an NFL team. On one side is the virtuous offense, led by Joe Burrow<\/a>, who continues to prove he\u2019s an all-time QB, triple crown WR Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a> and stud WR2 Tee Higgins<\/a>. All had the best season of their careers in 2024. They charted the 7th best OEPA<\/a>, most passing touchdowns, and were near or at the top of almost every other passing stat. This is doubly impressive considering their offensive scheme, which doesn\u2019t use many disguises or tricks to create openings. It\u2019s just Burrow in shotgun, using his two wideouts, and being better than the defense.<\/p>\n On the other side of Two-Face is the sinister defense. They were 28th DEPA against the run and 24th in total DEPA. Lou Anarumo\u2019s unit wasn\u2019t an unmitigated disaster like Carolina\u2019s, but they were not in a state to seriously compete for the title like the offense was.<\/p>\n Cincy haven\u2019t made any improvements to the secondary. They (finally) signed their first round DE Shemar Stewart, but are still in a stalemate with star DE Trey Hendrickson<\/a>. The one thing the defense did capably was rush the passer, in part due to Hendrickson\u2019s terrific season<\/a>. If they lose that, another season of Harvey Dent football seems to be inevitable.<\/p>\n \u201cJa’Marr is one of the best players of all time. If you\u2019re quarterback, and you\u2019re not gonna throw to that guy, then you shouldn\u2019t be the quarterback of the team anymore.\u201d <\/p>\n Joe Burrow \u2764\ufe0f\ud83e\udd1d Ja’Marr Chase <\/p>\n Quarterback Season 2 is now playing. pic.twitter.com\/WwhAHHd8K7<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Netflix Sports (@netflixsports) July 10, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Miami Dolphins \u2013 UNDER 8.5<\/p>\n This season marks a reflection point in Miami. The flashy and fast style of the short-lived \u2018greatest show on surf<\/a>\u2018 seems unfeasible in January. Tua\u2019s health will always, rightfully, be a concern \u2014 he\u2019s still under a hefty contract until 2028. Tyreek Hill<\/a>, in addition to his seemingly constant off-the-field episodes, did not look like himself last season. The once-beloved and innovative Miami run game averaged only four yards per attempt<\/a>.<\/p>\n The short and sweet recap of the Dolphins is that they heavily rely on Tua and his strengths. Without him, they become a significantly<\/a> worse team. So, to prepare for Tua missing time they signed\u2026.Zach Wilson<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Dolphins seem content to hope in the unlikelihood that Tua will play the whole season, instead of preparing for the situation that seems to occur every year. Mike McDaniel has entered hot seat territory, and given the divisions improvements, and fragility of the overall roster, this season could spiral fast.<\/p>\n New York Jets \u2013 OVER 5.5<\/p>\n Given the offseason the Jets have had, 5.5 wins seems like an amazingly low number.<\/p>\n Last season was a disaster in part due to the team\u2019s lofty expectations with Aaron Rodgers. Looking at what the team gained versus what they lost, there\u2019s plenty of reason for optimism in the Meadowlands.<\/p>\n Aaron Glenn<\/a> did fantastic work in Detroit and brings a level of professionalism that has been needed for some time. Losing Rodgers is major addition-by-subtraction, both for the culture and on the field. Justin Fields isn\u2019t Drew Brees<\/a> or anything, but he isn\u2019t terrible either. Fields has talent and can make big plays occasionally, especially on the ground.<\/p>\n The Jets hired Tanner Engstrand as their OC, who worked as the passing game coordinator with Glenn in Detroit. His work speaks for itself, and he\u2019ll be able to maximize a thin receiving corps. The O-line is also shaping up to be elite with the addition of first-rounder Armand Membou. If the Jets can win five games with last year\u2019s chaos, they can win at least that with solid ground underneath them.<\/p>\n Jacksonville Jaguars \u2013 OVER 7.5<\/p>\n The Jacksonville Jaguars, even given their underwhelming reputation, seem to continually disappoint. The team itself is always better on paper than the field. Perhaps this is falling for the same ruse, but Jacksonville has the bones of a competent team in 2025.<\/p>\n Liam Coen is among the most exciting head coaching hires of the offseason \u2014 a legitimate offensive creator who give his QB the tools to thrive based on their skillset. Trevor Lawrence<\/a> has all the talent in the world, and now finally has a shepherd on the sideline.<\/p>\n Brian Thomas<\/a> Jr. emerged as a legitimate budding superstar at WR, a possibility Jax has never really had. They improved the worst secondary in the league with the additions of S Eric Murray<\/a> and CB Jourdan Lewis<\/a>, and significantly beefed up the O-line to keep Lawrence upright. The Jags might not be world beaters yet, but we all know that 9-8 can get it done in the AFC South.<\/p>\n Las Vegas Raiders \u2013 PUSH 7.5<\/p>\n Likewise to Duval County, the Raiders underwent a sizeable facelift.<\/p>\n To go from Gardner Minshew<\/a>, Antonio Pierce<\/a>, and Alexander Mattison<\/a>, to Geno Smith<\/a>, Ashton Jeanty, and Pete Carroll, plus Tom Brady<\/a> in the front office, in less than year is impressive. Brock Bowers<\/a> is still a prodigy at TE, and Maxx Crosby<\/a> is still a terror on the edge.<\/p>\n The core of this team is a lot more solid in the key positions and staff, and yet LV still has a ways to go before they can compete with the big dogs. Even in their own division, they have three monoliths in front of them.<\/p>\n Going forward, though, there\u2019s positives to look at. They almost certainly won\u2019t have the second-worst<\/a> EPA in the NFL this year, boast lots<\/a> of cap space ($30 million), have players to build off of, and will hopefully undergo a true culture shift. If the goal of the offseason is to improve the team, 2025 was a success in Sin City.<\/p>\n Tennessee Titans \u2013 UNDER 5.5<\/p>\n Cam Ward is just about the only exciting thing in Tennessee.<\/p>\n Ward is the true rags-to-riches story: an unranked High School prospect that went from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami University, to No. 1 pick. He also seems to have the sicko-competitiveness that bodes well for an NFL QB. The NCAA touchdown record<\/a> isn\u2019t too shabby either. It\u2019s clear to see, though, why Tennessee had the No. 1 pick.<\/p>\n They ranked near the bottom in all offensive and defensive stats, and total EPA<\/a>. Given the roster and Will Levis\u2019 tendencies, the Titans somehow over-achieved in some aspects last year, and they still went 3-14. Like all teams in Tennessee\u2019s position, the goal for 2025 shouldn\u2019t be winning games, but developing Cam Ward. Six wins seems like a stretch.<\/p>\n Indianapolis Colts \u2013 PUSH 7.5<\/p>\n The Colts will be the new test case teams point to for drafting pure potential. Anthony Richardson had thrown<\/a> a total of 393 pass attempts entering the NFL, which was validated by the eye-test. He is physically gifted enough to make some unbelievable throws, but lacks consistent accuracy desperately.<\/p>\n Richardson and Daniel Jones<\/a> will compete in an open camp competition for the starting job. Richardson was shut down May 29 because of an \u2018aggravation\u2019 to his surgically repaired AC joint in the throwing shoulder. HC Shane Steichen didn\u2019t give a timeline for Richardson\u2019s return, but given the QB\u2019s injury history and desperate need for reps, things look bleak in Indy.<\/p>\n If Richardson does struggle to beat out Jones for the starting job, then serious conversations need to happen regarding the plan at QB. Tyler Warren is a much needed upgrade at TE. The O-Line is still good, the WRs are still okay, and the defense is pretty good. Yet, unless Indy has someone to steer the ship on offense, more mediocrity is in store for the Colts.<\/p>\n New England Patriots \u2013 OVER \u2013 8.5<\/p>\n Everyone and their mom is in on the Patriots in 2025, and rightfully so.<\/p>\n Drake Maye<\/a> looks to be an NFL QB in the mold of Josh Allen. Mike Vrabel<\/a> is among the best head coaches in the NFL on the field (watch the 2022 Titans vs. Chiefs playoff game for proof) and in the front office. He seems to have a sixth sense for how to make his teams annually competitive.<\/p>\n Josh McDaniels is back in his comfort zone as OC. McDaniels will likely emphasize the run game, which will take pressure off Maye and the dreadful<\/a> receiving core. Will Campbell is a star in the making and as good of a first-round O-Line pick as a team can get. Vrabel\u2019s influence will also help the defense, which was highly un-Patriot-like (29th DEPA) last year. The short and sweet is that New England has a much higher floor. The Wild Card is not an unrealistic possibility.<\/p>\n Cleveland Browns \u2013 UNDER 5.5<\/p>\n The Browns are once again in a tough place. On one hand, their draft and offseason was pretty solid. Narratives and media circus aside, QB Shedeur Sanders is incredible value in the 5th round, and Mason Graham is a perfect fit for Cleveland\u2019s defense. The Dillon Gabriel pick made the Sanders pick seem very strange, but taking multiple QB\u2019s when you have none isn\u2019t terrible logic. Judkins is a great pick at RB, and Dylan Sampson might end up being a steal in the 4th round.<\/p>\n Still, Cleveland\u2019s mess is large. The Deshaun Watson<\/a> debacle and contract still looms as a dark cloud over the franchise, and it will be hard to build any cultural momentum with it present. They had the single worst<\/a> OEPA in the league in 2024, and no signs point to that changing.<\/p>\n The defense was among the NFL\u2019s strongest, but it\u2019s aging. It\u2019s also built off Myles Garrett<\/a> who, while absurdly dominant, flirts with discontentment<\/a> each offseason. The Browns have a gaping offensive cavern they just can\u2019t overcome. As if it couldn\u2019t get worse, Cleveland also possesses the second hardest strength of schedule<\/a>. As the years go on, it becomes clearer that the Browns squandered something in Baker Mayfield<\/a> and the roster around him.<\/p>\n Favorite AFC Overs: New York Jets and Denver Broncos
\nFavorite AFC Unders: Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins
\nFavorite AFC Stay Away: Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n