{"id":217687,"date":"2025-07-18T20:27:17","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T20:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/217687\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T20:27:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T20:27:17","slug":"winnipeg-jets-2025-26-lineup-projection-plus-the-biggest-questions-at-every-position","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/217687\/","title":{"rendered":"Winnipeg Jets 2025-26 lineup projection, plus the biggest questions at every position"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dylan Samberg\u2019s emergence as a shutdown defenceman was one of the Winnipeg Jets\u2019 best storylines last season. Gabriel Vilardi\u2019s work on the power play helped the Jets finish first in the NHL.<\/p>\n

Now, Winnipeg is working to sign both restricted free agents before their arbitration hearings, which could take place as soon as July 20. The NHLPA will announce specific arbitration dates for each player in the coming days, even as the Jets work to avoid those hearings \u2014 as they did with Morgan Barron, signing him to a two-year, $1.85 million AAV contract earlier this week.<\/p>\n

I believe there is a strong appetite to avoid arbitration with Samberg and Vilardi.<\/p>\n

Samberg, 26, is eligible for unrestricted free agency as soon as next season, giving him more leverage than most defencemen with one year of top-four excellence on their resume. Winnipeg will look to buy as many UFA years as possible, perhaps getting Samberg to commit to as many as six or seven years in the heart of his career. Samberg is committed to the Jets and fills an important role on the PK and alongside Neal Pionk on the second pair. I\u2019d expect a long-term deal to exceed the $4.5 million projected by Evolving-Hockey or $4.8 million projected by AFP Analytics.<\/p>\n

Vilardi, 25, is two seasons away from unrestricted free agency. This gives Winnipeg a little bit more wiggle room \u2014 a one-year arbitration award would still allow for a long-term extension next summer \u2014 although the range of options is wide. There may be more of an appetite for a four- or five-year contract, given Vilardi\u2019s injury history, with the player potentially benefiting from a rising cap and his productive role on the Jets\u2019 power play. Evolving-Hockey projects a $7.5 million AAV for Vilardi on a four-year term, while AFP Analytics projects four years at $6.6 million AAV.<\/p>\n

As the Jets\u2019 roster crystallizes, here are the biggest stories and questions on and off the ice facing Winnipeg\u2019s projected roster \u2014 up front, on defence and in net.<\/p>\n

Forwards
\n LWCRW<\/p>\n

Kyle Connor<\/p>\n

Mark Scheifele<\/p>\n

Gabriel Vilardi (RFA)<\/p>\n

Cole Perfetti<\/p>\n

Jonathan Toews<\/p>\n

Gustav Nyquist<\/p>\n

Nino Niederreiter<\/p>\n

Adam Lowry (IR)<\/p>\n

Alex Iafallo<\/p>\n

Morgan Barron<\/p>\n

Vladislav Namestnikov<\/p>\n

Cole Koepke<\/p>\n

Tanner Pearson<\/p>\n

David Gustafsson<\/p>\n

Walker Duehr<\/p>\n

Jaret Anderson-Dolan<\/p>\n

Mason Shaw<\/p>\n

Parker Ford (RFA)<\/p>\n

Blue shading denotes projected opening-night roster.<\/p>\n

The biggest changes: Nikolaj Ehlers is out, Jonathan Toews and Gustav Nyquist are in, and Adam Lowry is recovering from hip surgery.<\/p>\n

The story:\u00a0Winnipeg\u2019s forward group gives us the opportunity to answer an age-old question about how to win hockey games. Is it more effective to have the best individual player \u2014 or to not\u00a0have the worst player? The Jets\u2019 top-end talent \u2014 Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi and Cole Perfetti with another year of improvement under his belt \u2014 will fall short of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel and their linemates on the West\u2019s presumed top teams. With Ehlers out, there\u2019s one more top-end gamebreaker missing, even though Toews and Nyquist have had productive seasons earlier in their careers.<\/p>\n

Winnipeg\u2019s depth is excellent, though. Once everybody is healthy, one of Toews or Lowry will be the team\u2019s third-line centre. If the Jets use the lines we\u2019ve projected, then all of Lowry, Barron, Nino Niederreiter, Alex Iafallo, and Vladislav Namestnikov will have viable cases to be used higher up the lineup. In most cases, they\u2019ve been used higher up the lineup \u2014 and to great success, especially when the Niederreiter\/Lowry duo\u2019s shutdown assignments have turned them into Winnipeg\u2019s de facto second line.<\/p>\n

This is a team with a high floor. If it can replicate last season\u2019s Presidents\u2019 Trophy success \u2014 or surpass its second-round playoff performance \u2014 it will be a testament, in part, to its phenomenal depth. If it fails, it will be because its power play cratered, Toews was unable to perform at a middle-six level, or the group struggles too much against speed.<\/p>\n

The biggest on-ice question: Do the Winnipeg Jets need to change how they play?<\/p>\n

The Jets are going to be a slower team than 2024-25. Recall that when Kevin Cheveldayoff brushed aside those concerns at the Toews press conference, referencing Brad Lambert\u2019s skating, he used the word \u201chopefully.\u201d As in: Hopefully Lambert makes the team. Cheveldayoff also pointed to team play, though, saying, \u201cIt\u2019s also playing fast. I think that\u2019s what a coach tries to do within their systems.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of Winnipeg\u2019s strengths is an abundance of hockey IQ. When Scott Arniel preaches defending between the dots, Winnipeg\u2019s forwards are a good bet to understand their responsibilities, make their reads and make it difficult for opposing teams to make plays in the middle of the ice. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele made strides in this regard last season, while Winnipeg\u2019s other veteran players \u2014 Toews, Lowry, Niederreiter, Iafallo, Namestnikov and company \u2014 aren\u2019t going to short a backcheck or miss assignments.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible Arniel adapts in unexpected ways. Barron, a fourth-line forward, is one of Winnipeg\u2019s fastest players and did play down the middle at times last season. He could find himself pushed up the lineup out of respect for his foot speed and ability to drive the puck up the walls. It seems more likely that Winnipeg\u2019s forwards defend well, lose some transition scoring, and continue to depend on Connor, Scheifele and an elite power play to generate their offence.<\/p>\n

The biggest off-ice question:\u00a0Will Connor re-sign with Winnipeg or follow Ehlers\u2019 path in unrestricted free agency?<\/p>\n

My offseason projection is that Connor signs a big-ticket, long-term contract with Winnipeg. I expect him to become the highest-paid player in franchise history. It may be a difficult contract to live up to, given the 28-year-old is coming off of 97 points and the best all-around performance of his career. Still, I expect the interest in an extension is mutual.<\/p>\n

Defence
\n LDRD<\/p>\n

Josh Morrissey<\/p>\n

Dylan DeMelo<\/p>\n

Dylan Samberg (RFA)<\/p>\n

Neal Pionk<\/p>\n

Haydn Fleury<\/p>\n

Colin Miller<\/p>\n

Logan Stanley<\/p>\n

Luke Schenn<\/p>\n

Ville Heinola<\/p>\n

The story:\u00a0Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg give the Jets a strong foundation. Dylan DeMelo struggled at times last season and Neal Pionk\u2019s results have wavered at times, too, but the Jets have given up the fewest goals against in the NHL for two straight seasons. The concept of team defence is working in Winnipeg. Morrissey and Pionk also generate plenty of offence \u2014 Morrissey with his speed, power-play skill and blue-line feints, and Pionk with his shot and ability to find teammates for deflections. It\u2019s a talented group that could use more Morrissey-like dynamism or Samberg-like defensive prowess.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve also watched Morrissey miss games due to injury in two of the past three playoffs. Winnipeg\u2019s defence corps has often been bullied in front of the net regardless of size. Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn gave up the most five-on-five goals per minute among Jets defencemen during the playoffs, while Morrissey and DeMelo were also outscored.<\/p>\n

The biggest on-ice question:\u00a0Are they strong enough to handle playoff opponents?<\/p>\n

Have you seen the Paul Maurice clip where he screams at his Panthers team to forget making plays and just pound Boston\u2019s defencemen \u201cso in Game 7, they\u2019ve got nothing left?\u201d The Jets may have beaten the Blues in seven games, but Morrissey was hurt (and Scheifele before him) while Winnipeg gave up more goals due to screens, deflections, or both than any other team<\/a> during Round 1.<\/p>\n

A team\u2019s defensive numbers should be worse in the playoffs than they were during the regular season. That\u2019s what happens when you take away the 16 worst opponents. (Even Florida gave up more postseason scoring chances than they did through their first 82 games.) In Winnipeg\u2019s case, though, the drop-off was precipitous. The Jets\u2019 goals-against numbers were about more than goaltending \u2014 it\u2019s a function of what\u2019s happening in front of the net \u2014 and we\u2019ve watched Winnipeg struggle in consecutive playoffs. It\u2019s fair to question team defence when the net-front chances soar, just as it\u2019s fair to question the goaltender when the goals go pouring in.<\/p>\n

The biggest off-ice question:\u00a0Who\u2019s headed to waivers?<\/p>\n

Winnipeg is headed towards training camp with nine NHL-caliber defencemen, all of whom require waivers to be assigned to the Moose. A disproportionate number of those players would be best suited to a third-pairing or press-box role, creating a series of difficult decisions for defence coach Dean Chynoweth. We\u2019ve listed Haydn Fleury and Colin Miller as the third pairing here, but the Jets could realistically pair any of their bottom five defencemen together, give them sheltered minutes and get away with it.<\/p>\n

The sheer volume of defencemen provides an insurance policy heading into training camp. Players can and do get hurt all of the time and this season\u2019s schedule will be densely packed with games, owing in part to the Olympics. Winnipeg would do fine to hold on to everybody for now, let them battle it out for jobs, and defer its decision-making to the end of camp. Winnipeg has also lost Johnathan Kovacevic and Declan Chisholm to waivers in recent seasons. Ville Heinola appears to be at risk of following them \u2014 and even then, the Jets would need to move someone else or carry eight defencemen if everyone stays healthy.<\/p>\n

Heinola\u2019s foot injury and ensuing infection ended his last two training camps early. If he shows up healthy and at his best, he could force the Jets to make a difficult decision about the veterans in front of him.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Jets have the best goaltender on the planet in Connor Hellebuyck and a backup who has been excellent in Eric Comrie. (Candice Ward \/ Getty Images)Goaltending
\n G<\/p>\n

Connor Hellebuyck<\/p>\n

Eric Comrie<\/p>\n

The story:\u00a0Winnipeg has the best goaltender on the planet and a backup who has been excellent in Winnipeg. There is also a non-zero group of readers who scoffed at that sentence because of Connor Hellebuyck\u2019s playoff performance.<\/p>\n

The biggest on-ice question: Can Hellebuyck bring his best self to the postseason?<\/p>\n

Hellebuyck\u2019s regular-season legacy is settled, with three Vezina Trophy wins and the 2025 Hart Trophy as the NHL\u2019s most valuable player. His playoff legacy is in jeopardy, with a pair of shutouts against Dallas offering a glimmer of hope after St. Louis shelled him and Colorado seemed to crush his spirit. No matter how well he plays during the regular season, there will be a sense of \u201cWill he get it done when it matters?\u201d until Hellebuyck delivers in the playoffs.<\/p>\n

There is nuance, however. The Jets gave up too many screened shots and didn\u2019t protect their net front as well as they needed to during the playoffs. Hellebuyck was brilliant against Edmonton in 2021. But this generation of Jets \u2014 the one that leads the league in regular season wins since 2022-23 \u2014 will be defined by their playoff success. Even if you ascribe some of Hellebuyck\u2019s poor postseason numbers to screens, bounces and poor defending, his game has changed, too, and he\u2019s acknowledged that he\u2019s tried to overcorrect his own play.<\/p>\n

The biggest off-ice question:\u00a0Will Eric Comrie come back?<\/p>\n

Comrie has been an ideal backup in Winnipeg, posting a .914 save percentage in 20 games last season and embracing his support role. He\u2019s one of Hellebuyck\u2019s biggest supporters and even made this cameo<\/a> when Hellebuyck won the Hart Trophy this season. He spends extra time with Jets shooters at the end of most practices and is an outspoken advocate for Winnipeg as a hockey market.<\/p>\n

Comrie also signed in Buffalo when the Jets made him a free agent in 2022. It was a decision made in search of a bigger role; another strong season in Winnipeg could earn him offers to play more than his career high of 20 GP.<\/p>\n

(Top photo of Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg: Jerome Miron \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dylan Samberg\u2019s emergence as a shutdown defenceman was one of the Winnipeg Jets\u2019 best storylines last season. Gabriel…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":217688,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2051],"tags":[7,226,1917,255,2321,2097,6,4474],"class_list":{"0":"post-217687","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york-jets","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-jets","10":"tag-new-york","11":"tag-new-york-jets","12":"tag-newyork","13":"tag-newyorkjets","14":"tag-nfl","15":"tag-winnipeg-jets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/114876124187657982","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=217687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/217688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=217687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=217687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=217687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}