{"id":229675,"date":"2025-07-23T12:34:15","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T12:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/229675\/"},"modified":"2025-07-23T12:34:15","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T12:34:15","slug":"mandels-mailbag-week-1-games-with-playoff-implications-10th-place-sec-team-cfp-formats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/229675\/","title":{"rendered":"Mandel\u2019s Mailbag: Week 1 games with playoff implications, 10th-place SEC team, CFP formats"},"content":{"rendered":"

Given I\u2019m spending part of this week at media days for the Big Ten, whose Las Vegas location makes about as much sense as its list of members, this felt like the right time to start pivoting the mailbag largely to on-field questions.<\/p>\n

It didn\u2019t quite work out that way, but at least it\u2019s primarily split down the middle. Come for the discussion about possible 10th-place SEC teams, stay for a look at College Football Playoff formats and NIL.<\/p>\n

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)<\/p>\n

Which game in Week 1 or 2 has the most significant playoff implications? I\u2019ll certainly be watching Texas and Ohio State, but that feels more like a game for seeding, rather than determining who is in or out. \u2014 Rob<\/p>\n

Even as an expanded CFP proponent, I can acknowledge the stakes aren\u2019t as high for those early-season mega-matchups. Not that I\u2019ll enjoy them any less. However, it sounds like you\u2019re talking about games where the two teams are both viable contenders, but without the same margin for error.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame at Miami on Sunday night of Week 1 fits that bill.<\/p>\n

Miami found out the hard way last year that 10-2 in the ACC is not good enough. The Canes finished No. 13 in the final CFP rankings, four spots below Mountain West champ Boise State and two spots behind 9-3 Alabama, even with the Tide\u2019s bad losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Losing at home to start 0-1 would not help the Hurricanes\u2019 cause.<\/p>\n

Not to mention, Mario Cristobal\u2019s program could use a validating non-conference win. The Canes thought they had that when they beat a ranked Texas A&M team early in the 2023 season, but those Aggies plummeted to 5-7 and got Jimbo Fisher fired. Notre Dame, coming off a trip to the national championship game, would be a whole different thing. Whereas if they lose, it\u2019s the same old Miami.<\/p>\n

As for the Irish, they\u2019re always toeing a thinner line. A loss wouldn\u2019t be fatal by any means, given they brushed off losing to NIU last year, but you never know what Notre Dame\u2019s schedule strength will end up being. On paper, this may prove to be its toughest game. However, at least one or two teams from among Texas A&M (Week 2), at Arkansas (Week 3), Boise State (Week 4), USC (Week 5) or possibly at Pitt (Week 10) are likely to prove more challenging than expected.<\/p>\n

The closer we get to the season, the higher I am on the Irish. Jeremiyah Love could be a superstar, and the defense is stacked at seemingly every position. However, a lot is riding on CJ Carr, whom we haven\u2019t seen. If he\u2019s not ready, this could easily go from a 12-0 or 11-1 team to more of a 9-3 team, and that\u2019s not going to cut it.<\/p>\n

Here are 10 SEC teams, listed alphabetically. By default, one of them will finish 10th or worse in the conference this year. Which team(s) do you think fall below that threshold from this group?<\/p>\n

\u2022 Alabama
\u2022 Auburn
\u2022 Florida
\u2022 Georgia
\u2022 LSU
\u2022 Oklahoma
\u2022 Ole Miss
\u2022 Tennessee
\u2022 Texas
\u2022 Texas A&M<\/p>\n

(Not listed: Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt)\u00a0\u2014 Brian S.<\/p>\n

I assume it will be more than one, given the unbalanced schedules, the hit-or-miss nature of the portal and that preseason conference polls always have at least a few whiffs.<\/p>\n

First up would be Tennessee. It\u2019s not just because of losing Nico Iamaleava, though that didn\u2019t help. Appalachian State transfer Joey Agular should be decent if he picks up Josh Heupel\u2019s offense. However, Dylan Sampson and James Pearce Jr. were so important to last year\u2019s Vols, and their secondary suffered a lot of attrition. I could see them finishing below .500 in conference play.<\/p>\n

Opinions seem to be all over the map on Ole Miss. You can tell Lane Kiffin is high on new QB Austin Simmons. However, Kiffin and his collective went all in on last year\u2019s roster, particularly up front on defense, only to fall short of the CFP yet again. I see this being a rebuilding year.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s inevitably going to be one \u201cI can\u2019t believe I talked myself into this team.\u201d Given how much space I\u2019ve spent talking up Oklahoma this offseason, it could very well be the Sooners going 2-6 (again). Though not if John Mateer has anything to say about it.<\/p>\n

What do you expect from Indiana? They have a much tougher conference schedule this season. On the other hand, they now have former Cal standout Fernando Mendoza as their quarterback (this Ducks fan wishes Oregon had given him a legit look). \u2014 Drex H.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a tendency with these out-of-nowhere teams to assume they\u2019ll come back to earth the following year, but that\u2019s not always the case. A good example is Duke, which has gone 9-4, 8-5 and 9-4 over the past three seasons. The Blue Devils\u2019 place in the ACC preseason poll the past three years: Last place in the former Coastal Division (RIP) in 2022, tied for sixth in 2023 and then back down to 11th in 2024 \u2014 behind Cal.<\/p>\n

I would not discount Curt Cignetti\u2019s second Indiana team. While it snuck up on me how highly regarded Mendoza is by NFL Draft guys<\/a>, he had his moments at Cal, including a showcase night against Miami and a game-winning 98-yard drive against Stanford. And that was with an underwhelming supporting cast. IU brings back top-two receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and landed versatile Maryland running back Roman Hemby.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Curt Cignetti led Indiana to its best record since 1968 last season. (Christine Tannous \/ USA Today Network via Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

And I\u2019m guessing no one remembers the Hoosiers\u2019 defense finished second nationally in yards per play per game (4.3). Three 2024 All-Americans, Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D\u2019Angelo Ponds, are back.<\/p>\n

However, I don\u2019t want to minimize the schedule. Last year\u2019s was quite possibly the weakest in Big Ten history, and while IU mostly beat up on the bottom-feeders, it lost to the three best teams it faced, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Michigan (the fact that last year\u2019s Wolverines were the third best they faced says a lot). This year\u2019s Hoosiers face Penn State, Oregon and Iowa on the road and a preseason top-20 Illinois team at home.<\/p>\n

Indiana\u2019s Vegas win total is 8.5. That\u2019s a tough one. However, Cignetti is such a great coach that I\u2019ll go ahead and sign on for 9-3, which, while a step down from 11-1, would still ensure the program\u2019s second-best record since 1968.<\/p>\n

Which Big 12 second act do you think is more likely to be a success: Scott Frost at UCF or Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia? \u2014 Kevin J.<\/p>\n

You must have missed my coaching hire grades from this past cycle<\/a>. I gave West Virginia my only \u201cA\u201d and UCF my only \u201cD.\u201d And I\u2019m starting to wonder whether the Frost grade was too high.<\/p>\n

If you missed Frost\u2019s comments to Chris Vannini at Big 12 Media Days<\/a>, the coach feels his 16-31 record at Nebraska was entirely the fault of Nebraska for being a \u201cbad job\u201d and not his for having no discernible offensive identity, inexcusable special teams play and failure to instill any confidence in his teams to win close games.<\/p>\n

With Frost having learned nothing, I don\u2019t know why anyone would expect his UCF sequel to be any different. This is a Big 12 job now, not an ACC \u2013 er, American \u2013 job. The week-in, week-out competition level will be closer to Nebraska\u2019s than 2017 UCF\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Whereas Rodriguez has had two redemptive coaching jobs since bombing at Michigan, taking Arizona to its only Pac-12 championship game and leading Jacksonville State to a Conference USA title in just its second FBS season. West Virginia is in a much different place than it was 18 years ago.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t expect a repeat of his three straight top 10 seasons from 2005-07. I also wouldn\u2019t expect any instant returns in the first year. However, I fully expect him to have the Mountaineers in Big 12 championship contention within three years. Even if not, they will at least be far more entertaining.<\/p>\n

Of all the active college coaches who were former players themselves, which one do you think would be the most helpful to their current team? They would be in their collegiate prime and cannot switch positions. \u2014 Daniel S.<\/p>\n

You might assume I\u2019d say Deion Sanders, but Colorado had the best two-way player since Deion just last year, so I don\u2019t know whether he\u2019d make the Buffs that much better.<\/p>\n

The FBS answer is Bowling Green\u2019s Eddie George. Can you imagine the 1995 Heisman winner, who ran for 1,826 yards and 23 touchdowns his senior year, going against MAC defenses? BG to the CFP!<\/p>\n

However, the all-divisions answer is Norfolk State\u2019s Michael Vick. Whatever the craziest stat line anyone has ever achieved for a player in NCAA Football, the 1999-2000 version of Vick would obliterate in the MEAC.<\/p>\n

You are the commissioner of college football and your first assignment is to establish the Playoff. What would you do? A 30-team Playoff? 64? 2? Keep bowl games? Go to home games for the higher seeds? Anything goes \u2026 \u2014 Marty C.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know if it would fall under my purview, but the first thing I\u2019d do is move up the regular season by a week so we can build a more sensible Playoff calendar. First-round games the weekend that is currently Army-Navy, quarterfinals the weekend before Christmas, semifinals on New Year\u2019s Day and the championship a week after that, whether it falls on a Tuesday or a Saturday. No more competing with the NFL.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d keep the size at 12. No one who gets left out of that field has any right to complain because they don\u2019t have much of a r\u00e9sum\u00e9. Plus, I like keeping first-round byes as an extra incentive on the last day of the regular season. However, they would likely go to the top-4 teams, regardless of conference, and those teams would get to host a quarterfinal game. No. 3 Texas playing its first game at the Peach Bowl last year was \u2026 something.<\/p>\n

Which brings me to an idea I proposed a few years ago<\/a>. First off, I will not apologize for giving the Rose Bowl special treatment. It will get its annual Jan. 1 date, which means it will always host a semifinal. The other five will each host one primetime semifinal and one championship game over the course of five years.<\/p>\n

Finally, I am keeping bowls. I would love to see more bowl games, with a catch: We\u2019re eliminating conference tie-ins. It\u2019s going to be a circa 1979 free-market bonanza. If the Gator Bowl wants to pit 5-7 Auburn against 4-8 Florida State, knock yourself out.<\/p>\n

I assume the Pop-Tarts Bowl will rise to the top of the non-CFP pecking order. I want to see Alabama players tearing into a giant strawberry Pop-Tart, ideally, right before SMU\u2019s Playoff game.<\/p>\n

Will Purdue be the first school in modern college sports history to return more starters from the men\u2019s basketball team (four) than the football team (one) this upcoming school year? \u2014 Dan K.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no way to answer this definitively, but I did do three minutes of research. I knew Jedd Fisch\u2019s first Washington football roster had just two returning starters. It turns out that the basketball team, which had also undergone a coaching change, had one as well.<\/p>\n

So, Purdue it is.<\/p>\n

If you were playing Washington State\u2019s and Oregon State\u2019s hands from the beginning, what would you have done differently? It appears they have cemented their status as programs that will have little to no national relevance. It seems odd that they wouldn\u2019t have done home-and-homes with as many old Pac-12 teams as possible and any brand that would bring eyes to the TV. \u2014 Themanebro<\/p>\n

You make it seem like a school can snap its fingers and conjure up six home-and-homes on very little notice. Most schools lock in their non-conference contracts years in advance. The Pac-12 imploded in August 2023, and schools had to create schedules from scratch for 2024 and 2025. I don\u2019t think they would have had a season in 2024 without the Mountain West\u2019s lifeline.<\/p>\n

As for this year, Oregon State\u2019s 2025 schedule is frankly remarkable. It has five Power 4 games, plus the two Wazzu games. The Cal, Houston, and Wake Forest home-and-homes all came together after the Pac-12 mess. Washington State is less impressive, though it did land a one-off game at Ole Miss and has Washington coming to Pullman.<\/p>\n

A more interesting question is this. The two schools were determined from the beginning to keep the Pac-12 alive and refused to lower themselves by joining the Mountain West. In the end, though, they formed Mountain West 2.0, with nowhere near the revenue they\u2019d hoped to generate.<\/p>\n

Would they have been better off just keeping football independent?<\/p>\n

Oregon State will go from five Power 4 games this year to, at most, three next year (Houston, Texas Tech, and hopefully Oregon, though that has not yet been agreed upon). Boise State is always an attention-grabbing opponent, but at least half the schedule will consist of former MWC schools and Montana. With three years\u2019 notice, they could have come up with a more impressive independent schedule. I\u2019m not sure if the financials would have worked.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been busy and haven\u2019t followed the drip, drip, drip of the offseason. Have I missed anything? \u2014 John C.<\/p>\n

Yes, but I can give you the CliffNotes: Everybody is mad about everything.<\/p>\n

(Top photo: Aaron E. Martinez \/ USA Today Network via Imagn Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Given I\u2019m spending part of this week at media days for the Big Ten, whose Las Vegas location…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":229676,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7208,7210,331,1301,7,450,3499,7211,7209,7206,49,48,4604,69,1787,7207,6094,4729,4278,1541,7212,1078,4708,7205,6095],"class_list":{"0":"post-229675","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-arkansas-razorbacks","9":"tag-auburn-tigers","10":"tag-college-football","11":"tag-florida-gators","12":"tag-football","13":"tag-georgia-bulldogs","14":"tag-kentucky-wildcats","15":"tag-lsu-tigers","16":"tag-mississippi-state-bulldogs","17":"tag-missouri-tigers","18":"tag-ncaa","19":"tag-ncaa-football","20":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","21":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","22":"tag-oklahoma-sooners","23":"tag-ole-miss-rebels","24":"tag-oregon-state-beavers","25":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","26":"tag-south-carolina-gamecocks","27":"tag-tennessee-volunteers","28":"tag-texas-am-aggies","29":"tag-texas-longhorns","30":"tag-ucf-knights","31":"tag-vanderbilt-commodores","32":"tag-washington-state-cougars"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/229676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}