{"id":246428,"date":"2025-07-29T22:27:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T22:27:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/246428\/"},"modified":"2025-07-29T22:27:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T22:27:11","slug":"dispelling-myths-about-rams-2024-playoff-loss-to-eagles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/246428\/","title":{"rendered":"Dispelling myths about Rams\u2019 2024 playoff loss to Eagles"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve heard all offseason from fans and pundits alike that the Los Angeles Rams<\/a> were simply \u201ca drive away\u201d from taking down the eventual Super Bowl<\/a> champion Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>. <\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t ordinarily look so far back in the rearview mirror, especially with training camp underway; however, this single game is being incorrectly used as a barometer for predicting LA\u2019s success in 2025. Instead of wiping the slate clean and rolling the ball back up the hill, many are gauging the Rams\u2019 incremental improvements and using this lone drive as the measuring stick.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s preposterous.<\/p>\n

Everyone you know is getting this wrong<\/p>\n

This result always made the most sense.<\/p>\n

Stafford and the Rams were one final scoring drive away from defeating the Eagles and going to the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

Why change that?<\/p>\n

\u2014 Real Mac Balzac (@mac_balzac) February 28, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Eagles didn\u2019t even play that well in a home game where they had a huge advantage over a West Coast dome team playing in the snow. Rams were a play away from beating the Eagles at the end of the game.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Joshua Phoebus (@jphoebus) July 27, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Just about every playoff run has a moment like that <\/p>\n

Easy to forget how close the Rams were to stunning the Eagles earlier this year before Carter made those 2 huge plays<\/p>\n

\u2014 The Let It Ride Podcast (@TheLetitRidePod) July 27, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Rams were one drive away from beating the eagles in Philly in a snowstorm. <\/p>\n

Rams are a passing offense, eagles are a running offense. <\/p>\n

Not hard to understand if you watched the game<\/p>\n

\u2014 Sam Swenson (@samswenson) February 26, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Why the game wasn\u2019t as close as you remember<\/p>\n

According to ESPN Analytics\u2019 measure of win probability<\/a>, the Eagles were firmly in the driver\u2019s seat for the entire game. The Rams never reached 50% likelihood.<\/p>\n

A few important shifts within this matchup:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nfl\/game\/_\/gameId\/401671937\/rams-eagles<\/p>\n

Rams had their best odds late into the third quarter (48.5%) before a Kyren Williams fumble that was returned to the LA 10-yard line (22.1% thereafter).
\nWith roughly five minutes left in the fourth quarter down 15-22, the Rams brough out Ethan Evans to punt on fourth-and-ten from their own 30-yard line after a three-and-out. Matthew Stafford was sacked on first down. After the punt, Philly had a 90.6% win probability.
\nSaquon Barkley ripped off a 78-yard rushing touchdown on the very next play to make it a 15-28 contest. The Eagles\u2019 probability of victory shifted to 97.7%.
\nStafford connects with Colby Parkinson on a short touchdown. Rams stop Barkley on the following drive on third-and-19. Philly still 80.9% likely to win the game.
\nRams drive to the Eagles\u2019 21-yard line, pushing LA to around 46% chance of victory.
\nSame drive on third-and-two, Jalen Carter sacks Stafford. Eagles now at 86.5% probability to win.<\/p>\n

ESPN\u2019s analytics take into account that\u2014even if the Rams scored a touchdown on their final offensive possession\u2014the Eagles would only need a field goal to steal away victory. Sure, the Rams defense had the Eagle\u2019s number for most of the second half; however, you\u2019d take those odds in the postseason when the margins are ever-slim.<\/p>\n

To pretend the Rams were only a drive away fails to acknowledge that Philadelphia dominated in terms of win probability for most of this game.<\/p>\n

Blame where blame is due<\/p>\n

The snowy conditions were tough, certainly. However, all offseason Stafford has been universally praised for his playoff effort in Philadelphia. Advanced metrics simply do not support this take.<\/p>\n

The divisional round was easily one of Stafford\u2019s worst performances over the 2024 season. By Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive grading only, this was tied for the veteran\u2019s fifth-worst outing of the year.<\/p>\n

Stafford\u2019s four turnover-worthy plays marked his season-high total, tied with Week 9 at the Seattle Seahawks<\/a>. The box score is favorable in this regard as Stafford threw zero interceptions and only lost a single fumble. It could have been far worse, and there were multiple near interceptions dropped by Eagles defenders. <\/p>\n

He took sacks on 27.8% of pressures, which was his fourth-highest ratio on the year. This is despite a time-to-throw consistent with his season average of 2.62 seconds and likely because of over aggression. He average depth of target was 11 yards\u2014the second highest total for any game in 2024.<\/p>\n

But there is plenty of blame to go around on offense and on the turnover front. <\/p>\n

Kyren Williams was on the wrong side of one of the most pivotal plays in the entire game\u2014his aforementioned fumble. This mistake came when the stakes were at their highest, even if most believe the fourth quarter drive was the Rams\u2019 best chance at victory. If Williams doesn\u2019t fumble, Los Angeles would keep the ball around midfield with their first real chance of competing in this game. Instead, the Eagles returned Williams\u2019 fumble inside the red zone and didn\u2019t look back\u2014against popular belief.<\/p>\n

Refreshing expectations for 2025<\/p>\n

While the Rams were frustratingly close to another Super Bowl run last season, we must wipe our minds clean and recalibrate expectations for 2025.<\/p>\n

Every team in the NFL is currently 0-0. There will be surprise entrants into the postseason tournament, and franchises we expect to be in the playoffs will likely fall short. This is as close to certainty as it gets in the NFL and happens on an annual basis.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Rams made incremental improvements over the offseason. Replacing Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams should give LA a more formidable threat on the perimeter in the passing game. Signing Poona Ford will go a long ways in shoring up the run defense that Saquon Barkley took advantage of over and over.<\/p>\n

But you can\u2019t spend the offseason fixing last year\u2019s problems. You must be honest about where you are and soberly offer ideas for improvements. It feels like the Rams are telling themselves they were \u201cjust a drive away\u201d. <\/p>\n

2025 will bring new challenges and they are likely to be different from the Achilles heels that sent LA packing a year ago.<\/p>\n

Are the Rams ready?<\/p>\n