{"id":301803,"date":"2025-08-19T23:26:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T23:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/301803\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T23:26:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T23:26:13","slug":"these-5-longshot-nfl-mvp-candidates-offer-good-betting-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/301803\/","title":{"rendered":"These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value"},"content":{"rendered":"

These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value<\/a> originally appeared on The Spun<\/a>.<\/p>\n

(Editor\u2019s note: This article is from\u00a0The Spun by Athlon Sports\u2019 2025 Football Betting Guide<\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike.\u00a0Order your copy today online<\/a>, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)<\/p>\n

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An important thing to understand when betting in an awards market: It doesn\u2019t matter who you think will win; it only matter who voters are most likely to support.<\/p>\n

And in the case of the NFL MVP, history indicates those voters most likely will back a quarterback.<\/p>\n

Not only have quarterbacks won 70% of NFL MVP awards, but they\u2019ve taken home the hardware 17 times in the last 18 seasons \u2014 including 12 years in a row.<\/p>\n

So when considering an MVP wager on a quarterback, ask yourself two questions: Can his team win its conference, and can he lead the league in touchdowns? You should be able to answer \u201cyes\u201d to at least one of those questions before making any MVP bet.<\/p>\n

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When it comes to MVP longshots for 2025, your best bets are NFC quarterbacks. For an AFC longshot to win, he and his team would have to outperform Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. That\u2019s a daunting task.<\/p>\n

Therefore, it\u2019s far easier to emerge as the top quarterback on the best team in the NFC.<\/p>\n

With that said, here are five dark-horse candidates to win the NFL\u2019s MVP this season:<\/p>\n

Brock Purdy +2500<\/p>\n

The 49ers seriously regressed in 2024. The year prior, though, Brock Purdy was neck and neck with Baltimore\u2019s Lamar Jackson in the MVP race heading into their Week 16 head-to-head tilt.<\/p>\n

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Purdy imploded that night, throwing four interceptions in a 33-19 home loss. However, he\u2019s shown that he can play at an MVP level \u2014 a reason the 49ers gave him a $256 million extension in the offseason.<\/p>\n

San Francisco will enjoy the league\u2019s easiest schedule this season,\u00a0 which means it conceivably could contend for the top spot in the NFC. Which makes Purdy an intriguing MVP longshot bet.<\/p>\n

\"Detroit<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff<\/p>\n

Jared Goff +3100<\/p>\n

Detroit Jared Goff has joined the ranks of elite NFL passers. The problem with his 2025 MVP candidacy? His team\u2019s schedule, especially in the first half of the season. Seven of Detroit\u2019s first 10 opponents made the playoffs in 2024. The Lions also face the (seemingly improved) Bears and Bengals during that stretch, giving them nine contests against playoff-caliber teams through Week 11.<\/p>\n

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Now you know why Goff\u2019s MVP price is higher than Purdy\u2019s: The latter has a much easier path to MVP contention.<\/p>\n

Baker Mayfield +3400<\/p>\n

Baker Mayfield has posted numbers similar to Goff the last two seasons. However, the Tampa Bay quarterback has a much easier 2025 schedule \u2014 in large part because the NFC South is arguably the NFL\u2019s weakest division, while the NFC North is the toughest.<\/p>\n

\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford<\/p>\n

Matthew Stafford +4000<\/p>\n

The Rams\u2019 Matthew Stafford is getting up there in age, but it\u2019s not inconceivable that he could lead the league in touchdown passes this year \u2014 especially with a wide receiver corps headlined by a healthy Puka Nacua and veteran Davante Adams, who is an upgrade over Cooper Kupp.<\/p>\n

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J.J. McCarthy +7500<\/p>\n

The Vikings\u2019 J.J. McCarthy is a Hail Mary MVP longshot. Remember, though, head coach Kevin O\u2019Connell\u2019s not only resurrected Sam Darnold in 2024, he got 14 wins and an MVP-quality season out of the former No. 1 pick. McCarthy, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, takes over a loaded offense. Also, his coach is one of the league\u2019s best play-callers. In other words, McCarthy has the potential to put up huge numbers for a legit playoff contender.<\/p>\n

Related: The Spun by Athlon Sports\u2019 2025 Football Betting Guide Available Now<\/a><\/p>\n

Related: 2025 NFL MVP Favorites<\/a><\/p>\n

These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value<\/a> first appeared on The Spun on Aug 19, 2025<\/p>\n

This story was originally reported by The Spun<\/a> on Aug 19, 2025, where it first appeared.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value originally appeared on The Spun. (Editor\u2019s note: This…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":301804,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[220,1842,184,228,2644,1081,5430,146,7,1519,1029,1577,872,895,32,6,499,1088,424,1878,1161,116],"class_list":{"0":"post-301803","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-49ers","9":"tag-baker-mayfield","10":"tag-baltimore","11":"tag-bengals","12":"tag-brock-purdy","13":"tag-cooper-kupp","14":"tag-davante-adams","15":"tag-detroit","16":"tag-football","17":"tag-j-j-mccarthy","18":"tag-jared-goff","19":"tag-joe-burrow","20":"tag-josh-allen","21":"tag-lamar-jackson","22":"tag-matthew-stafford","23":"tag-nfl","24":"tag-patrick-mahomes","25":"tag-puka-nacua","26":"tag-rams","27":"tag-sam-darnold","28":"tag-san-francisco","29":"tag-the-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115058022200478560","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=301803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/301803\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/301804"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=301803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=301803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=301803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}