{"id":356889,"date":"2025-09-10T13:07:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T13:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/356889\/"},"modified":"2025-09-10T13:07:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T13:07:13","slug":"college-football-playoff-traffic-report-where-each-power-four-team-sits-on-road-to-cfp-ahead-of-week-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/356889\/","title":{"rendered":"College Football Playoff Traffic Report: Where each Power Four team sits on road to CFP ahead of Week 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2025 college football<\/a> season is already shaping up to be chaotic. Heading into Week 3, few teams have separated themselves as clear national championship contenders, while upsets and uneven performances are keeping the early College Football<\/a> Playoff picture wide open. Every Power Four conference looks crowded, and what seemed like safe paths for favorites have quickly become treacherous.<\/p>\n

Throughout the season, the College Football Playoff Traffic Report will give an updated look at where each P4 team stands on the road to the playoff, separated into tiers:<\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude80 On cruise control
\ud83d\udfe2 In the driver’s seat
\ud83d\udfe1 Bumper-to-bumper
\ud83d\udd34 Sitting on the shoulder
\u26d4 Out of the race<\/p>\n

The early-season outlook will break down which 30 teams are best positioned to reach the CFP, which squads are jockeying for position and which are starting to run out of margin for error or effectively eliminated.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Let’s take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of Week 3.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

College football rankings: Miami and Oregon leapfrog Georgia, Florida plummets after upset in CBS Sports 136<\/p>\n

\n Chip Patterson <\/p>\n

\"College<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\n\ud83d\ude80\u00a0On cruise control<\/p>\n

Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error.<\/p>\n

Ohio State<\/a> (2-0): No national championship hangover for the Buckeyes. A statement win against preseason No. 1 Texas<\/a> on the r\u00e9sum\u00e9 gives Ryan Day and Ohio State a margin for error should they stumble in Big Ten play later on. New coordinator Matt Patricia has the defense looking elite already, too. The Buckeyes, at +550, are currently FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>‘s betting favorite for the national title.<\/p>\n

Miami<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0Are the Hurricanes for real? The defense looks much improved after being a liability last season that ultimately cost Miami a spot in the ACC title game and CFP. The offense should only get better as Carson Beck<\/a> gets comfortable in a new environment.<\/p>\n

Penn State<\/a> (2-0): The Nittany Lions won’t face a real test in the nonconference slate. The real challenge awaits in the Big Ten opener with a rematch of last year’s conference title game against No. 4 Oregon<\/a>. Still, it doesn’t take much to know Penn State is among the most talented rosters in the country.<\/p>\n

Oregon (2-0):\u00a0The Ducks’ schedule sets them up as a near lock to make the CFP at this point. Even with a loss at No. 2 Penn State on Sept. 27 and another stumble in Big Ten play, it would be hard to keep a two-loss Oregon team out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0In the driver’s seat<\/p>\n

Control their path, but still vulnerable — one or two unexpected hiccups could matter.<\/p>\n

LSU<\/a> (2-0): The Tigers looked a little sleepy against Louisiana Tech<\/a> in Week 2 after a statement win against Clemson<\/a> in the opener. Bad news: the road to the CFP doesn’t get any easier with five AP Top 25 teams still on the schedule. Good news: that also means LSU can bolster its r\u00e9sum\u00e9 for the committee.<\/p>\n

Georgia<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The Bulldogs haven’t exactly looked dominant out of the gate, failing to cover in their first two games against lesser opponents. Still, Georgia remains the standard in the SEC and a proven force when it matters most. The narrative will shift quickly one way or the other — Georgia’s next dates with No. 15 Tennessee<\/a> and No. 19 Alabama<\/a> this month will reveal whether this group is flying under the radar or simply not up to its usual championship level.<\/p>\n

Texas (1-1): Arch Manning<\/a> bounced back from a humbling opener against Ohio State by accounting for five touchdowns in a rout of San Jose State<\/a>. The Longhorns’ defense looks championship-caliber, but the bigger question is whether Manning can consistently deliver against elite competition.<\/p>\n

Florida State<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The offseason coordinator hires of Gus Malzahn (OC) and Tony White (DC) paid dividends immediately with the Week 1 upset of Alabama. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos<\/a> gives the Seminoles a dynamic spark, and as long as he plays within himself, FSU has the balance to make a serious run. With the ACC looking top-heavy beyond No. 12 Clemson and No. 5 Miami, the Seminoles shouldn’t face many hurdles on their path to the playoff.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The Sooners needed\u00a0that win over Michigan<\/a> in Week 2 to boost their playoff r\u00e9sum\u00e9, especially with all eight of their SEC opponents now ranked in the AP Top 25. John Mateer<\/a> looks like the spark at quarterback Oklahoma hoped for, but his margin for error is razor thin in a league this unforgiving.<\/p>\n

Illinois<\/a> (2-0): The Fighting Illini won’t sneak up on anyone this season. They’ve already positioned themselves ahead of a manageable Big Ten slate to be in the mix again come November. Illinois does host No. 1 Ohio State in October, but avoiding both Oregon and Penn State gives Bret Bielema and Co. a clearer path than most to stay in contention.<\/p>\n

Utah<\/a> (2-0): This is the version of the Utes most expected to see last season before Cam Rising went M.I.A. New quarterback Devon Dampier<\/a> gives Utah the offensive balance it needed to complement a defense that’s always strong under Kyle Whittingham. Several preseason Big 12 contenders already look shaky, further clearing the path for the Utes to assert themselves.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame<\/a> (0-1):\u00a0The Fighting Irish put themselves behind the 8-ball with the Week 1 loss to Miami, and as an Independent, they don’t have many r\u00e9sum\u00e9-building opportunities left. Beating No. 16 Texas A&M<\/a> this Saturday is crucial to stay in the playoff chase — without it, Notre Dame may run out of chances to impress the committee.<\/p>\n

Ole Miss<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0Lane Kiffin survived another tough test against Kentucky<\/a> in Week 2. The injury to quarterback Austin Simmons<\/a> doesn’t appear serious, which is notable. If Ole Miss reaches its Sept. 27 clash with No. 3 LSU undefeated, a defining moment awaits Kiffin. The Rebels must capitalize on every opportunity to prove they belong among the SEC elite and validate their playoff credentials so Kiffin doesn’t have to make his case to the committee again.<\/p>\n

Tennessee (2-0): The Volunteers certainly don’t miss Nico Iamaleava<\/a>. The pseudo trade with UCLA<\/a> for Joey Aguilar<\/a> seems to have paid off for Tennessee. But a stiff test awaits with No. 6 Georgia visiting Neyland Stadium this Saturday. The defense hasn’t been as dominant as it was last year, so the Volunteers will need a complete effort on both sides of the ball. A win against the Bulldogs would put Tennessee squarely in the driver’s seat for the CFP.<\/p>\n

South Carolina<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The Gamecocks haven’t been consistent offensively, which is surprising given the talent at quarterback with LaNorris Sellers<\/a>. With a backloaded schedule, South Carolina has time to build momentum, but it must avoid another slow start to the SEC slate like last year to stay in the CFP conversation.<\/p>\n

Alabama (1-1):\u00a0It’s unclear whether that Week 1 loss to Florida State will linger. The Crimson Tide have the talent to compete with anyone in the country, but coach Kalen DeBoer hasn’t had much luck on the road, posting a 1-5 record away from Tuscaloosa since last October. That’s concerning, especially with all four of Alabama’s road SEC games this season coming against current AP Top 25 opponents.<\/p>\n

Texas A&M (2-0):\u00a0The Aggies looked like a playoff team last season until the defense broke down in November, when they dropped four of their last five after Marcel Reed<\/a> took over at quarterback. Now, with Reed entrenched and the offense looking steady, the pressure shifts to the defense to hold up its end. By the end of September, Texas A&M’s playoff credentials will be tested — starting with a trip to No. 8 Notre Dame this Saturday before hosting No. 24 Auburn<\/a> after a bye.<\/p>\n

Clemson (1-1):\u00a0Disaster avoided in Death Valley. Clemson was on upset watch for much of its game against Troy<\/a> in Week 2 before scoring 27 unanswered. An 0-2 start would have thrown early-season title hopes into chaos. Quarterback Cade Klubnik<\/a> has looked awful at times early. Several potential trap games loom before Florida State visits on Nov. 8, making each matchup critical for the Tigers’ playoff r\u00e9sum\u00e9 and ACC title hopes.<\/p>\n

LSU running back Harlem Berry (22) picks up yardage in the Tigers’ win over Louisiana Tech on Saturday.
\n Getty Images
\n \ud83d\udfe1 Bumper-to-bumper<\/p>\n

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others.<\/p>\n

Auburn (2-0): Hugh Freeze has been here before — breezing through September only to fade once the SEC grind hits. The road win at Baylor<\/a> is a quality early boost, but sustaining that momentum will be the real test. Freeze is just 5-11 against SEC opponents since arriving, a reminder of how steep the climb still is.<\/p>\n

USC<\/a> (2-0): Soon enough we’ll learn whether the Trojans are simply piling up stats against overmatched opponents or if quarterback Jayden Maiava<\/a> is playing his way into early Heisman Trophy contention. The offense has been sizzling, but Lincoln Riley still hasn’t shown he can guide USC to a Big Ten road win outside Los Angeles — the kind of result they’ll need to stay in the CFP mix come November.<\/p>\n

TCU<\/a> (1-0): In their opener, TCU embarrassed Bill Belichick and North Carolina<\/a>, making a statement right out of the gate. With experienced quarterback Josh Hoover<\/a> leading the way and one of the Big 12’s softer schedules in 2025, the Horned Frogs have a clear opportunity to stack wins. The challenge is that their margin for error is thin with the Big 12 certainly looking like a one-bid league again.<\/p>\n

Missouri<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0Eli Drinkwitz said it best after the Border War win in Week 2 — Beau Pribula<\/a> was “nails” under pressure. Missouri paid big to land the Penn State transfer, and so far he’s delivered the steady hand they needed. With back-to-back double-digit win seasons, the Tigers have shown they can contend, but a 2-5 mark against ranked SEC opponents is the ceiling they still have to crack. <\/p>\n

Texas Tech<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0It’s too early to measure the potential of the Red Raiders’ expensive roster after beating FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff<\/a> and Kent State<\/a> by a combined 129-21. The real test comes with the Big 12 opener at No. 20 Utah on Sept. 20.<\/p>\n

Indiana<\/a> (2-0): Last season, the Hoosiers benefitted from a softer Big Ten slate to make a playoff push. That luxury won’t exist in 2025, with matchups against No. 9 Illinois, No. 4 Oregon, and a road trip to No. 2 Penn State. Indiana will need to play at its peak in every game just to stay in contention.<\/p>\n

Iowa State<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The Cyclones have their flaws, but they remain one of the few Big 12 teams with a realistic shot at the conference crown. With wins already over rivals Iowa<\/a> and Kansas State<\/a>, Matt Campbell<\/a>‘s squad doesn’t face another AP Top 25 opponent the rest of the way — as of now — giving them a clear path to build momentum.<\/p>\n

Michigan (1-1): The Wolverines dropped a road game to Oklahoma, with five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood<\/a> struggling. With coach Sherrone Moore serving a suspension, Michigan faces a pivotal two-week stretch, culminating in a Sept. 20 road trip to Nebraska<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nebraska (2-0): Speaking of the Huskers, the narrow season-opening win against Cincinnati<\/a> set the stage for momentum, but Nebraska hasn’t started 4-0 since 2016. Only time will tell if they can sustain it.<\/p>\n

Georgia Tech<\/a> (2-0): The Yellow Jackets have a prime opportunity in Week 3 with a home date against Clemson. A win over the Tigers — potentially their first since 2014 — would generate serious momentum, especially with arguably the easiest remaining ACC schedule looming afterward.<\/p>\n

BYU<\/a> (2-0):\u00a0The Cougars’ defense looks dominant, surrendering only a field goal through two games. BYU has cruised so far, but a challenging three-game stretch awaits later with season with a rivalry matchup against No. 20 Utah before consecutive road games at No. 14 Iowa State and No. 21 Texas Tech tests their fortitude.<\/p>\n

Washington<\/a> (2-0): Don’t sleep on the Huskies. Jedd Fisch could have Washington back in the CFP conversation sooner rather than later. The three toughest tests — No. 1 Ohio State, No. 4 Oregon and No. 9 Illinois — are all at home. Pulling off an upset in just one of those matchups, while handling the rest of the schedule, could position Washington as a potential two-loss Big Ten contender.<\/p>\n

Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb (23) celebrates a touchdown with Jackson Arnold during the Tigers’ Week 1 win over Baylor.
\n Getty Images
\n \ud83d\udd34 Sitting on the shoulder<\/p>\n

Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos.<\/p>\n

ACC: Boston College<\/a>, California<\/a>, Duke<\/a>, Louisville<\/a>, NC State<\/a>, North Carolina, Pittsburgh<\/a>, SMU, Syracuse<\/a>, Virginia<\/a>, Wake Forest<\/a><\/p>\n

Big 12: Arizona<\/a>, Arizona State<\/a>, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado<\/a>, Houston<\/a>, Kansas<\/a>, UCF<\/a><\/p>\n

Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland<\/a>, Michigan State<\/a>, Minnesota<\/a>, Purdue<\/a>, Rutgers<\/a>, Wisconsin<\/a><\/p>\n

SEC: Arkansas<\/a>, Florida<\/a>, Mississippi State<\/a>, Vanderbilt<\/a><\/p>\n

\u26d4 Out of the race<\/p>\n

Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff.<\/p>\n

ACC: Stanford<\/a>, Virginia Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

Big 12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State<\/a>, West Virginia<\/a><\/p>\n

Big Ten: Northwestern<\/a>, UCLA<\/p>\n

SEC:\u00a0Kentucky<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2025 college football season is already shaping up to be chaotic. 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