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Via @data_by_faro TikTok<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Audio By Carbonatix<\/p>\n Sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry\u2014and that\u2019s just the legal kind. Of all sports betting, football\u2019s is the biggest. Accurately predicting which teams will win is a dark art that\u2019s equal parts statistics analysis and magic. One diehard football fan may have cracked the code. He\u2019s built a computer model that thus far has an 88% success rate. That\u2019s 15 right and just two wrong. And he\u2019s giving the predictions away for free.<\/p>\n Faro (@data_by_faro) has been building these models for a while. The NFL prediction<\/a> model has taken his TikTok account from the fringe to the rarefied air of an influencer seemingly overnight. As of this writing, Faro\u2019s up to roughly 120,000 followers.<\/p>\n Just a few weeks ago, most of his posts were getting roughly 1,000 views. Now some of his most popular ones have hundreds of thousands of views.<\/p>\n How Do You Predict Which NFL Team Will Win?<\/p>\n There are innumerable metrics that go into choosing a winning team. Some are semi-joking in nature, such as predicting the winner will be the team whose mascot would theoretically win a fight against the other\u2019s. Choosing winners based on whose uniform you like better is another tongue-in-cheek method.<\/p>\n Possibly the worst but most common method is to just choose your favorite of the two teams.<\/p>\n Those in the know use multiple metrics to predict winners. Common ones include the yards allowed per game in running and passing plays, offensive yards per game in the same, points per game, points allowed per game, whether the team\u2019s playing at home or away, and injuries.<\/p>\n How Did He Do It?<\/p>\n Faro has created an NFL win-predicting code using what\u2019s called predictive modeling<\/a>. It uses historical data and statistics like the ones listed above to predict the outcome.<\/p>\n Some other examples, which he\u2019s shown<\/a> in scatter plot charts<\/a>, are win percentage vs turnover margin and time of possession rate vs overall success rate running plays. He is continually tinkering<\/a> with the model to improve it.<\/p>\n Faro says that he began by \u201cthinking about upsets.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIf the team with the better stats always won, there would never be an upset. So what is this underlying factor causing upsets, or set of factors?\u201d he says he wondered.<\/p>\n This question led to others, which is key to his process.<\/p>\n \u201cYou don\u2019t need to be great at math to build these models; you just need to ask yourself the right questions,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n He\u2019s trying to figure out how much can possibly be predicted about a game in advance.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we had the absolute best prediction model, how much of a game could it actually predict?\u201d he says, then acknowledges, \u201cIt\u2019s not going to be 100% no matter what. We want the prediction accuracy to be as close to the amount of the game that\u2019s predictable as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n His model might not be perfect, but an 88% accuracy rate, even with a dataset of only 17 games, is exceedingly rare.<\/p>\n It has people clamoring for more. They\u2019re in luck. Faro says he has no plans<\/a> to charge a fee for his predictions. He even purportedly<\/a> turned down a company\u2019s offer to pay for his model because its website has a paywall.<\/p>\n Some Words Of Caution<\/p>\n Faro doesn\u2019t say if he personally bets on sports<\/a> and did not respond to BroBible\u2019s direct message seeking comment.<\/p>\n He\u2019s very open about the fact that gambling can get out of control.<\/p>\n After his account started taking off, he posted two rules for using his model: \u201c1. Always be aware of the signs of gambling addiction and open to the fact that you might have some, and that it\u2019s okay to reach out for help. 2. Put 10 to 20% of your winnings into savings as a rainy day fund.\u201d<\/p>\n Gambling<\/a> is a serious addiction that ruins lives. Finding someone like Faro with an exceptional accuracy rate picking winners can be tempting for even a casual gambler. If his model maintains its accuracy, it\u2019s only natural to consider using his bets to make picks.<\/p>\n But he could start getting games wrong at any time. Even Faro acknowledges that you can\u2019t quantify everything. There are some intangibles in any sport that do not lend themselves to prediction.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve been predicting games for years, and there\u2019s one thing I\u2019ve had to learn,\u201d Faro says<\/a>. \u201cAnd it sounds kind of stupid, but you can only predict what you can predict.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t![\"Carbonatix](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/tts-pre-loader.gif\")
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