{"id":372945,"date":"2025-09-16T15:21:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T15:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/372945\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T15:21:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T15:21:11","slug":"nfl-futures-2025-proven-models-best-bets-to-make-playoffs-win-super-bowl-after-week-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/372945\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL futures 2025: Proven model’s best bets to make playoffs, win Super Bowl after Week 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

Josh Allen<\/a> and Jalen Hurts<\/a> did not put up big statistical numbers in Week 2 of the 2025 NFL<\/a> season, but they did enough to guide their respective teams to victories and 2-0 records.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The reigning NFL MVP, Allen threw for only 148 yards without a touchdown and didn’t even run for a score, but he helped lead the Buffalo Bills<\/a> to points on their first four possessions en route to a 30-10 road triumph over the New York Jets<\/a>. Hurts, who was the MVP in the Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>‘ rout of the Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> in Super Bowl<\/a> LIX, finished with just 101 passing yards but ran for what proved to be the decisive touchdown in the fourth quarter as the defending champions posted a 20-17 victory in the rematch at Arrowhead Stadium.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, two teams that won division titles last year and were among the favorites to win the championship in 2025 bounced back from season-opening road losses with convincing wins at home in Week 2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Baltimore Ravens<\/a>, who squandered a 15-point lead with less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter against Buffalo and dropped a 41-40 decision in Week 1, cruised past the Cleveland Browns<\/a> on Sunday. And the Detroit Lions<\/a> rebounded from a 27-13 setback against the Green Bay Packers<\/a> to trounce the Chicago Bears<\/a> 52-21 in a matchup of NFC North clubs.<\/p>\n

Baltimore and Buffalo entered the season as the top AFC teams to win Super Bowl<\/a> LX at most of the major sportsbooks<\/a>. The Ravens were favored at FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>\u00a0and the Bills held that distinction at Caesars Sportsbook<\/a>. The teams were co-favorites at both DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> and BetMGM Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Bills’ comeback victory in Week 1 made them slight favorites over the Ravens at all four sportsbooks, and they maintained the edge at three of them after Week 2 with odds ranging from +425 to +500. Thanks to its dominant win on Sunday, Baltimore isn’t far behind (from +500 to +550), and the teams are even at +600 at FanDuel. The Chiefs’ 0-2 start has seen their odds rise from the +1000-1200 range to +1200-1400.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia, which was the preseason favorite among NFC teams to win the Lombardi Trophy, remains the top choice at FanDuel with +650 odds. The Packers have pulled even with the Eagles at BetMGM (+650) and Caesars (+700) and are +650 at DraftKings, where Philadelphia is +750. The Lions are +1700 at FanDuel and +1400 at the other three sportsbooks.<\/p>\n

According to SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team model, the Bills have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. The ITL team sees Buffalo celebrating at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Cal. in February in well over 26% of its proven model’s simulations. It has the Packers capturing the championship more than 17% of the time, while the Ravens and Eagles both win in about 14.5% of the simulations.<\/p>\n

When it comes to making the playoffs, the ITL team believes the Bills (99.9%) and Ravens (94.5%) are virtual locks in the AFC, while the 2-0 Indianapolis Colts<\/a> (78.7%) and Los Angeles Chargers<\/a> (75.9%), who visit the Las Vegas Raiders<\/a> on Monday Night Football in Week 2, are good bets. And despite a loss to the Colts on Sunday, the Denver Broncos<\/a> (66.3%) reach the postseason the majority of the time.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, the top teams to qualify for the postseason in the NFC, according to the ITL team, are the Packers (97.3%) and Eagles (92.4%). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/a> (86.6%), who visit the Houston Texans<\/a> on Monday Night Football, and 2-0 San Francisco 49ers<\/a> (77.2%) also are good bets, while the Lions (64.1%) make it in the majority of the simulations.<\/p>\n

The ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks<\/a> since its inception, continues to crunch the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has adjusted its projections on each team’s playoff probability after Week 2’s games, as well as their chances to win the division, the conference and the Super Bowl. Based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Below, we’ll take a look at the model’s five biggest movers in both directions in each conference from Week 1 to Week 2, regarding their chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising AFC teams in playoff projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals<\/a><\/p>\n

36.6%<\/p>\n

50.6%<\/p>\n

+14.0%<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

68.4%<\/p>\n

78.7%<\/p>\n

+10.3%<\/p>\n

New England Patriots<\/a><\/p>\n

6.1%<\/p>\n

14.1%<\/p>\n

+8.0%<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers*<\/p>\n

71.6%<\/p>\n

75.9%<\/p>\n

+4.3%<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n

90.8%<\/p>\n

94.5%<\/p>\n

+3.7%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining AFC teams in playoff projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/a><\/p>\n

63.3%<\/p>\n

50.8%<\/p>\n

-12.5%<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins<\/a><\/p>\n

18.5%<\/p>\n

9.6%<\/p>\n

-8.9%<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

62.3%<\/p>\n

56.2%<\/p>\n

-6.1%<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

71.5%<\/p>\n

66.3%<\/p>\n

-5.2%<\/p>\n

New York Jets<\/p>\n

12.1%<\/p>\n

7.5%<\/p>\n

-4.6%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising AFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n

23.6%<\/p>\n

26.4%<\/p>\n

+2.8%<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars<\/a><\/p>\n

0.2%<\/p>\n

0.3%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

———-<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

———-<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

———-<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

—–<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining AFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

2.8%<\/p>\n

1.9%<\/p>\n

-0.9%<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n

2.0%<\/p>\n

1.4%<\/p>\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

2.9%<\/p>\n

2.4%<\/p>\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n

Houston Texans*<\/p>\n

0.7%<\/p>\n

0.5%<\/p>\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

0.8%<\/p>\n

0.7%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

New York Jets<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising NFC teams in playoff projectionsModel’s top five declining NFC teams in playoff projectionsModel’s top five rising NFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions<\/p>\n

3.4%<\/p>\n

5.8%<\/p>\n

+2.4%<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n

15.4%<\/p>\n

17.4%<\/p>\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers<\/p>\n

1.9%<\/p>\n

4.7%<\/p>\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

0.2%<\/p>\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams<\/a><\/p>\n

1.2%<\/p>\n

1.3%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n

0.4%<\/p>\n

0.5%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n

0.2%<\/p>\n

0.3%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints<\/a><\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining NFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 1<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders<\/p>\n

4.1%<\/p>\n

1.7%<\/p>\n

-2.4%<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers*<\/p>\n

4.7%<\/p>\n

3.5%<\/p>\n

-1.2%<\/p>\n

Minnesota Vikings<\/p>\n

2.1%<\/p>\n

1.0%<\/p>\n

-1.1%<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n

14.8%<\/p>\n

14.4%<\/p>\n

-0.4%<\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals<\/p>\n

0.4%<\/p>\n

0.3%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

(Teams playing on Monday Night Football in Week 2 are noted with an asterisk)<\/p>\n

While -500 at DraftKings on the Eagles to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model’s projection of 92.4%, a bettor still has to wager $500 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Broncos and Colts.<\/p>\n

We’ll take a closer look at three of the model’s top plays to make the 2025 NFL postseason.<\/p>\n

1. Indianapolis Colts (-130, DraftKings)Playoff probability model projection: 78.7%<\/p>\n

In the weak AFC South, a moderate winning streak could be enough to propel a team to the division title. The Colts are in the midst of doing just that after having spent the last four seasons on the outside looking in regarding the postseason.<\/p>\n

Daniel Jones<\/a> has been a godsend for Indianapolis thus far this year, leading the club to a dominant victory over the Miami Dolphins in the season opener and guiding it to a 29-28 comeback win over the Broncos in Week 2. Signed as a free agent in March, Jones beat out Anthony Richardson<\/a> for the Colts’ starting quarterback job and hasn’t disappointed, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a pair of scores against Miami before racking up 316 passing yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing score against Denver.<\/p>\n

The Colts enter Week 3 with a one-game lead in the AFC South and have a number of winnable games coming up on the schedule, including two meetings with the division-rival Tennessee Titans<\/a> and home matchups against the Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals. Jones has yet to throw an interception and if he can maintain his high level of play before Indianapolis’ bye in Week 11, there’s a strong chance he can help the team end its playoff drought.<\/p>\n

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+160, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 50.8%<\/p>\n

Yes, the Steelers had a disappointing showing after their season-opening 34-32 road triumph over the Jets as they were defeated 31-17 at home by the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. But the outlook for the club in the AFC North got better due to the misfortune of a division rival.<\/p>\n

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow<\/a> exited the team’s Week 2 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a turf toe injury, and the Bengals announced on Monday that he will require surgery and reportedly miss at least three months. That means the club will be relying on Jake Browning<\/a> until late in the season, which opens the door for the Steelers.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh’s schedule does include tough opponents such as Green Bay, Buffalo and Detroit – not to mention a pair of meetings with Baltimore – later in the season. But the Steelers’ next four contests are against the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings (possibly with backup Carson Wentz<\/a> at QB), Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati. If they’re able to run the table, their chances of earning a postseason berth should improve dramatically.<\/p>\n

3. Detroit Lions (-134, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 64.1%<\/p>\n

The sky was falling in Detroit after just one week, as the Lions were thoroughly defeated 27-13 on the road by the Packers in their season opener. The pundits were quick to point out that losing their offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason would cause the team to take a step back.<\/p>\n

The Lions put that theory on pause in Week 2, racking up 511 total yards while annihilating Chicago 52-21 at home. Jared Goff<\/a> threw for 334 yards and five touchdowns, with three going to star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/a>, as Detroit fell three points shy of matching the franchise record for most points in a regular-season game.<\/p>\n

Detroit still has difficult matchups on the horizon, including one on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football next week. But with Minnesota turning to Wentz due to a high-ankle sprain that is expected to sideline J.J. McCarthy<\/a> for 2-4 weeks, the Lions have an opportunity to move ahead of the Vikings in the standings and strengthen their playoff chances as they face Cleveland and Cincinnati after their meeting with Baltimore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts did not put up big statistical numbers in Week 2 of the 2025…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":372946,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[4566,1504,390,254,117,1107,53,1763,391,256,54,257,2772,258,113,7,345,253,392,1519,125,19907,492,1029,1577,872,110,393,262,58,251,259,249,55,255,6,6020,35209,65760,51130,51938,35547,65757,65756,65758,61067,109,57,65755,252,261,65759,18902,250,394,111],"class_list":{"0":"post-372945","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-amon-ra-st-brown","9":"tag-anthony-richardson","10":"tag-arizona-cardinals","11":"tag-atlanta-falcons","12":"tag-baltimore-ravens","13":"tag-betting","14":"tag-buffalo-bills","15":"tag-carson-wentz","16":"tag-chicago-bears","17":"tag-cincinnati-bengals","18":"tag-cleveland-browns","19":"tag-dallas-cowboys","20":"tag-daniel-jones","21":"tag-denver-broncos","22":"tag-detroit-lions","23":"tag-football","24":"tag-green-bay-packers","25":"tag-houston-texans","26":"tag-indianapolis-colts","27":"tag-j-j-mccarthy","28":"tag-jacksonville-jaguars","29":"tag-jake-browning","30":"tag-jalen-hurts","31":"tag-jared-goff","32":"tag-joe-burrow","33":"tag-josh-allen","34":"tag-kansas-city-chiefs","35":"tag-las-vegas-raiders","36":"tag-los-angeles-chargers","37":"tag-los-angeles-rams","38":"tag-miami-dolphins","39":"tag-minnesota-vikings","40":"tag-new-england-patriots","41":"tag-new-orleans-saints","42":"tag-new-york-jets","43":"tag-nfl","44":"tag-nfl-betting","45":"tag-nfl-futures","46":"tag-nfl-futures-best-bets","47":"tag-nfl-futures-bets","48":"tag-nfl-futures-odds","49":"tag-nfl-gambling","50":"tag-nfl-playoffs-best-bets","51":"tag-nfl-playoffs-odds","52":"tag-nfl-super-bowl-best-bets","53":"tag-nfl-super-bowl-odds","54":"tag-philadelphia-eagles","55":"tag-pittsburgh-steelers","56":"tag-playoffs-odds","57":"tag-san-francisco-49ers","58":"tag-seattle-seahawks","59":"tag-super-bowl-best-bets","60":"tag-super-bowl-odds","61":"tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","62":"tag-tennessee-titans","63":"tag-washington-commanders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=372945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372945\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/372946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=372945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=372945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=372945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}