{"id":376282,"date":"2025-09-17T23:44:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T23:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/376282\/"},"modified":"2025-09-17T23:44:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T23:44:17","slug":"indianapolis-colts-week-10-offensive-rankings-and-analysis-one-drive-wonders-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/376282\/","title":{"rendered":"Indianapolis Colts Week 10 Offensive Rankings and Analysis: One drive wonders"},"content":{"rendered":"

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts<\/a> game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of \u201cwhat happened\u201d narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats<\/a>. Thanks to Pro Football Reference<\/a>, NFL.com<\/a>, Football Outsiders<\/a>, and the nflFastR project<\/a> for being awesome sources of weekly data.<\/p>\n

For the second week in a row, the Colts\u2019 offense had no trouble moving the ball down the field. Their 26 first downs and 78.8% Drive Success Rate ranked 6th best of the week and 1st across the first two games.<\/p>\n

The only two non-scoring drives stalled on failed fourth-down conversion attempts at midfield. Six others drives reached the red zone for 26 points and the final drive ended with a missed 60-yard field goal successful 45-yard field goal.<\/p>\n

One weakness that carried over from last week is that while the Colts have no problem reaching the red zone, they continue to struggle punching it in. On the season, they are tied for the 2nd-most red zone drives but also rank 7th-worst in red zone touchdown rate.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\nMouseover for definitions:
\nPPD,
\nAdj PPD,
\nW-L,
\nPyth Wins,
\nPPG,
\nYds,
\nDSR,
\nStrt Fld,
\nyds\/ply,
\nEPA\/ply,
\nadj TSR,
\n1st\/ply,
\nPen 1st\/ Yds,
\n3DC,
\n3rd ytg,
\nExpl Plys,
\nTO,
\nTOP%\n<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Their 29 points translate to 2.9 points per drive (8th best), while both total yards and yards per play ranked 4th-highest in Week 2. That\u2019s further evidence that they\u2019re struggling a bit to turn yardage into touchdowns, settling instead for chip shot field goals.<\/p>\n

No turnovers kept their EPA efficiency strong (9th highest), while a 4th-ranked success rate shows they are consistent in executing positive plays.<\/p>\n

The offense committed a lot of penalties that made first downs harder to come by, but they still managed the 5th-best conversion rate overall. Their third-down conversion rate this week was nearly identical to last week\u2019s (46.2% vs. 46.7%), but the average distance to convert actually increased from 4.7 to 5.8 yards. So, accounting for difficulty, they were slightly better.<\/p>\n

On the season, the offense is still #1 in points per drive and Drive Success Rate.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\nMouseover definitions:
\nEPA\/db,
\nAdj EPA\/d,
\nPSR,
\nCmp,
\nAtt,
\nYds,
\nTD,
\n Int,
\nSck,
\nSck Y,
\nSck Fum,
\nScrm,
\nScrm Yds,
\nScrm TD,
\nScrm Fum,
\n1st\/db,
\nny\/d,
\ncmp %,
\naDOT,
\nCPOE,
\nAir Yd,
\nYAC,
\n20+ #\/Yd\n<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Another stong passing week for Daniel Jones with the 8th highest EPA per play and the 3rd best Success Rate. He had the 6th most yards per play, which easily translated to the 2nd highest conversion rate.<\/p>\n

He didn\u2019t turn the ball over and he limited sacks. Basically, the only negative is that he isn\u2019t throwing touchdowns.<\/p>\n

On the season, his accuracy has given him the 4th-highest completion rate in the league despite attempting the 8th-longest passes on average. This has helped him post the league\u2019s 2nd highest success rate\u2014essentially the opposite of what Anthony Richardson provided.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\nMouseover definitions:
\nwgt RSR,
\nadj RSR,
\nYDS,
\nCAR,
\nTD,
\n1st,
\nFum Lost,
\nRSR,
\n1st\/c,
\nYPC,
\n10+ #\/Yd,
\n3rd,
\nEPA\/c,\n<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The run game took a step back this week, finishing 15th in weighted Rush Success Rate. While their fourth-highest yards per carry may look impressive, it doesn\u2019t account for down and distance. EPA per carry, which measures that more accurately, ranked just 16th.<\/p>\n

The run game also went 0-for-3 on third-down conversions and ranked 26th in overall conversion rate, which is a clear weakness. Still, on the season, they grade out as the sixth-best rushing team so far.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Overall, it was a great passing performance supported by an adequate run game against what I believe will ultimately prove to be a good defense. Red zone efficiency remains a concern, but at this point the positives far outweigh the negatives.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s strange to say, but so far the Colts offense is one of the best in the league.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>0 Comments<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":376283,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2059],"tags":[2005,7,2004,392,7711,20123,2381,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-376282","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-indianapolis-colts","8":"tag-colts","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-indianapolis","11":"tag-indianapolis-colts","12":"tag-indianapolis-colts-roster","13":"tag-indianapolis-colts-scores-results","14":"tag-indianapoliscolts","15":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115222299724322438","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=376282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/376283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=376282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=376282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=376282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}