Last week\u2019s record<\/a>: 3-2, +0.73 units
Season record: 18-24-1, -8.44 units, -17.9% ROI<\/p>\nSurprisingly large card for this late in the week. Whether that\u2019s a good or a bad thing remains to be seen. A lot of spreads that I think have some value, so let\u2019s hope for some winners. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!<\/p>\n
Week 9 best betsCalifornia +6.5 (-114) at Virginia Tech<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Cal +6 (-110)<\/p>\n
Cal is a little banged up right now, but I cannot get close to this price. My model thinks both of these offenses are pretty similar, but Cal has a significantly better defense. Sure, traveling across the country won\u2019t be easy, but Virginia Tech winning by margin here seems like a tall task.<\/p>\n
Buffalo -9.5 (-120) vs. Akron<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Buffalo -10 (-110)<\/p>\n
You\u2019ll have to shop around for this price, but my model makes this number closer to two touchdowns. Akron is absolutely dreadful at running the ball this season, and Buffalo\u2019s pass defense is pretty good for MAC standards. If Akron\u2019s poor offense has to become more one-dimensional, I don\u2019t like their ability to go around on the road and keep this one close.<\/p>\n
Fresno State +3 (-110) vs. San Diego State<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Fresno State +3 (-115)<\/p>\n
The San Diego State defense has been nails this year, and you\u2019ll likely find the Aztecs performing pretty well in efficiency metrics like EPA per play and success rate on both sides of the ball. But Fresno State hasn\u2019t been too shabby either, especially when it comes to throwing the ball on offense and stopping the run. I think these teams are a lot closer than we want to believe, and Fresno State gets to play at home.<\/p>\n
Houston +7.5 (-120) at Arizona State<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Houston +7.5 (-120)<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t factor in a favorable spot into my model or anything like that, but you will not find me complaining about the spot Houston is in against the Sun Devils. Arizona State just took down Texas Tech last week in a thriller and could come out a little slow this week. Willie Fritz has Houston playing great, and the defense has been awesome so far this year by virtue of being a top-25 team in EPA per play on early downs. If Houston can force Arizona State into some third-and-longs, I like their chances to keep this close.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) vs. NC State<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-115)<\/p>\n
The matchup I really like in this game is NC State\u2019s offense trying to get into third-and-manageable against a Pitt defense that loves to get you into third-and-long. Pitt\u2019s defense this year forces opponents in an average yards to go of 8.9 on third downs, according to gameonpaper.com. That\u2019s the fourth-best mark in the country. As for NC State\u2019s offense, they face an average of 7.8 yards to go on third down. If Pitt can force NC State into third and longs all game, they can run away with this one.<\/p>\n
SMU -2.5 (-124) at Wake Forest<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: SMU -2.5 (-125) or SMU -3 (-110)<\/p>\n
Again, you\u2019ll have to shop around for this price, and it\u2019s a bit juicy, but we track the juice, and I\u2019m not scared of it. On the road here, I\u2019m happy to pay the price to get under a field goal. Wake Forest has played a very easy schedule this year, and I think it\u2019s inflating their defense a bit. On top of that, their offense hasn\u2019t been all that impressive. I have SMU significantly better on offense and comparable on defense.<\/p>\n
Washington -4 (-108) vs. Illinois<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Washington -5.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
I think Washington is a little undervalued after their loss to Michigan last week, but there were a couple of factors that went against them that I\u2019m not sure are repeatable. First, it was a noon game in the Eastern Time Zone, which is a 9 a.m. body-clock game. Second, Michigan broke tendency with its defense for the first time all year, which caught the Washington offense off-guard, it seems. In a much more favorable matchup against an overrated Illinois team at home, I think Washington can win big.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2025 college football regular season is humming right along as Week 9 is here. My College Football…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":472132,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3577,4221,331,7,11360,5042,49,48,3861,4710,5433,671],"class_list":{"0":"post-472131","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-buffalo-bulls","9":"tag-california-golden-bears","10":"tag-college-football","11":"tag-football","12":"tag-fresno-state-bulldogs","13":"tag-houston-cougars","14":"tag-ncaa","15":"tag-ncaa-football","16":"tag-pittsburgh-panthers","17":"tag-smu-mustangs","18":"tag-sports-betting","19":"tag-washington-huskies"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115429709078377755","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=472131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/472132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=472131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=472131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=472131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}