Let\u2019s look at just how and why the Giants are struggling.<\/p>\n
The unproductive hitters have been\u00a0very unproductive<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve watched the Giants this season, you are not surprised by this factlet. But you might be surprised by just how extreme it\u2019s been.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s compare the Giants to their preseason projections from ZiPS<\/a>, which was actually a little bullish on the lineup. We\u2019ll use wRC+ because it accounts for league and park. Don\u2019t be intimidated by the nerd stats. Grab them by the lapels and make them work for you. All you need to know is that 100 is average, and that a player with a 95 wRC+ is 5 percent worse than the league-average hitter. A 105 wRC+ is 5 percent better, and so on.<\/p>\n The Giants had a lot of hitters who were expected to provide league-average production or better. Several of them have actually matched or outpaced their projections, and we\u2019ll start with them:<\/p>\n Giants compared to ZiPS (good)<\/p>\n These players represent the good news, and there are a lot of them. That\u2019s six regulars this season who are doing even better than expected, which is generally where you want a team to be. There\u2019s nobody on an MVP pace, and nobody is wildly outpacing their expectations, but if two-thirds of the lineup is doing what you want them to, the offense should be doing fine.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the other third.<\/p>\n Giants compared to ZiPS (bad)<\/p>\n The Giants have several hitters performing better than expected, but none on an MVP pace. The Giants have several hitters performing worse than expected, but a few of those are on an LVP pace. There have been 226 batters in baseball this season with at least 100 plate appearances. Here\u2019s where these hitters rank in wRC+ among those 226:<\/p>\n 166. Willy Adames If it makes you feel better, Joc Pederson and Tommy Pham are right next each other, between Wade and Bailey. None of them are slapping anything right now.<\/p>\n This does not make you feel better. Adames\u2019 numbers are below average and worse than projected, but they\u2019re also a standard kind of unproductive. A lineup with as many over-performing hitters as the 2025 Giants have so far can handle players with Adames\u2019 numbers.<\/p>\n Wade and Bailey have been two of the very worst hitters in baseball, and they\u2019ve been getting a lot of plate appearances. And while Adames hasn\u2019t been nearly as ineffective, only 12 players in baseball have had more PA, so his subpar numbers reflect outcomes that have been happening more often compared to other players.<\/p>\n It\u2019s all been enough to drag the offense down. It doesn\u2019t help that Tyler Fitzgerald was doing well, and his at-bats while on the injured list have been replaced by hitters who aren\u2019t doing nearly as well, but if there\u2019s one thing the 2025 Giants shouldn\u2019t complain about, it\u2019s injuries. Even with Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt and Jerar Encarnaci\u00f3n on the IL, this has been a healthier team than most.<\/p>\n They\u2019re not hitting the ball hard<\/p>\n There\u2019s no way to gussy up these numbers. The Giants are last in the NL and 29th in baseball in hard-hit percentage<\/a>, which is defined as a ball that leaves the bat at 95 mph or faster. The marine layer at Oracle Park isn\u2019t thick enough to affect the speed of the ball off the bat, so this isn\u2019t a ballpark thing.<\/p>\n Hard-hit percentage doesn\u2019t correlate perfectly with runs, with Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez being famous examples of hitters who have been successful without a ton of 95-mph batted balls. It doesn\u2019t even correlate that well for entire teams, although it does correlate a bit. Here\u2019s every team this season:<\/p>\n Still, it\u2019s better to hit the ball hard than not. Right now, the Giants are not.<\/p>\n They\u2019re hitting the ball in the air \u2026 but not in a good way<\/p>\n Statistically, it\u2019s better for pitchers to keep the ball on the ground. This is a baseball truism that helps explain why Logan Webb and Tyler Rogers are excellent major-league pitchers. The next grounder that goes over the fence will be the first one, and if you\u2019re eliminating that outcome, you\u2019re keeping more runs off the board.<\/p>\n The reverse is true for hitters. On average, it\u2019s preferable to get the ball in the air. Only two teams have a lower ground-ball percentage than the Giants: the Braves and Dodgers. They hit more balls in the air than the Yankees and the Cubs, two of the most potent offenses in baseball. That\u2019s a good sign, right?<\/p>\n Except not all balls in the air are created equal. The Giants also rank second in baseball in pop-up percentage and first in the NL.<\/p>\n This is tied to the hard-hit percentage from the last section, as it\u2019s hard to hit a ball 95-mph straight into the air. This is how the Giants can get the ball in the air just as much as the Dodgers (good), but not score as many runs (bad).<\/p>\n The Giants are getting dominated by four-seam fastballs<\/p>\n Only the Rockies have seen a higher percentage<\/a> of four-seam fastballs than the Giants this season, too, and that\u2019s not great company to keep. Pitchers aren\u2019t bothering with trickery or subterfuge. They\u2019re saying \u201chere, hit it.\u201d The Giants have a .284 wOBA on the 2,229 four-seamers they\u2019ve seen this season, and that\u2019s the worst mark in baseball. It\u2019s the worst in the National League by 23 points.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve seen more four-seam fastballs (206) right down the middle than most teams, and they\u2019re in the bottom third of baseball against them, with a .312 batting average and a .339 wOBA. For comparison, the Diamondbacks have a .500 BA and .614 wOBA on the 192 four-seamers they\u2019ve seen down the middle. That\u2019s an extreme level of success, but 12 teams have a wOBA higher than .400 against fastballs down the middle. Probably because they\u2019re fastballs down the middle.<\/p>\n Four-seam fastballs that are in the strike zone but not down the middle, though? The Giants are especially bad there, with a .249 wOBA, which is 57 points worse than the league average. You can get the Giants out with fastballs, even if they\u2019re down the middle, but you can really get them out if they\u2019re strikes around the perimeter of the strike zone.<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, the Giants aren\u2019t great against four-seam fastballs that are thrown harder than 95 mph, ranking dead last against them<\/a>, which suggests they\u2019re flummoxed by velocity even more than most teams. However, they\u2019re also dead last against fastballs thrown\u00a0slower than 95 mph.<\/a> They\u2019re the third-worst team against four-seam fastballs slower than 92 mph<\/a>. They\u2019re bad against them when they\u2019re ahead in the count<\/a>, and they\u2019re bad against them when they\u2019re behind in the count<\/a>. On a boat, with a goat, et cetera, et cetera. They just hate four-seam fastballs!<\/p>\n
220. LaMonte Wade, Jr.
224. Patrick Bailey<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Frx2iacg21e2d1.jpeg\")
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