DALLAS \u2014 To get to the Winnipeg Jets\u2019 dressing room at American Airlines Center after Tuesday night\u2019s loss, reporters shared an elevator with Jets management, navigated through members of Winnipeg\u2019s taxi squad, stepped past True North Sports & Entertainment chairman Mark Chipman, and turned down a narrow hallway, guided by Jets communications staff.<\/p>\n
Nikolaj Ehlers and Connor Hellebuyck were waiting in the visitors\u2019 room, ready to dissect Winnipeg\u2019s ninth straight road playoff loss \u2014 a streak going back to Vegas in 2023. For Ehlers and Hellebuyck, and one can assume for Jets brass as well, it was difficult to explain how Winnipeg had lost a critical playoff game on the road.<\/p>\n
Again.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf I had the answer to why, we would have gotten (a win) at some point,\u201d Ehlers said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is pretty raw,\u201d Hellebuyck said. \u201cIt\u2019s playoffs and it\u2019s been, I don\u2019t know, maybe five minutes since the end of the game. Every loss is frustrating.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ehlers praised Winnipeg\u2019s quality of play, but lamented the Jets\u2019 inability to bury their scoring chances. Hellebuyck leaned into the idea that one positive bounce could dramatically change Winnipeg\u2019s fortune in the series. The words were well felt. One can go through the game tape and find goals Winnipeg \u201cshould\u201d have scored and saves Hellebuyck \u201cshould\u201d have made.<\/p>\n
But the part of this Jets story that matters most has yet to be written.<\/p>\n
The odds are stacked against Winnipeg now. Teams down 3-1 have gone on to win 32 out of 352 NHL playoff series \u2014 a 9.1 percent success rate. The Athletic\u2019s Dom Luszczyszyn\u2019s in-house model gives these Jets a 13 percent chance of completing the comeback \u2014 essentially the same odds as flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row. Winnipeg\u2019s odds would improve further if the Stars were a paper tiger, unworthy of their postseason success, but the Dallas Stars are an excellent hockey team only getting better<\/a>.<\/p>\n This is a problem, but it\u2019s clearly not up to the Jets to care about the odds of their success. It\u2019s up to them to win a hockey game Thursday night in Winnipeg. Get that right in Winnipeg and then they can worry about Game 6 and their incomprehensible nine-game playoff losing streak on the road. Get that one \u2014 one \u2014 road game right and then there\u2019s a Game 7 waiting on home ice.<\/p>\n So the Jets are on the brink of elimination. What would it take for them to win three games in a row and become the 33rd team in NHL history to come back from a 3-1 series deficit?<\/p>\n Connor Hellebuyck needs to lock in<\/p>\n Hellebuyck isn\u2019t playing poorly in this series. He has a better save percentage at five-on-five (.918) than Jake Oettinger does (.913).\u00a0The difference is made up shorthanded: Hellebuyck has been beaten on four of eight shots while Oettinger has stopped 23 out of 24.<\/p>\n A quick review of those goals:<\/p>\n Mikko Rantanen tries to pass but banks a goal in off of Dylan Samberg\u2019s leg Blame Hellebuyck for one of those goals (as I do) or all four (as others have chosen to do). Take comfort in his five-on-five success or misery in his .884 save percentage across all situations. It doesn\u2019t matter: Winnipeg cannot come back against Dallas without Hellebuyck outplaying Oettinger. The Jets\u2019 odds of a miracle rely more heavily on their franchise goaltender than on any other player.<\/p>\n \u201cI leave it all out there every night,\u201d Hellebuyck said Tuesday. \u201cI\u2019m doing my best. Sometimes it\u2019s a heartbreak, but all it takes is one little change, one little bounce and things can start going our way.\u201d<\/p>\n The Jets\u2019 top scorers need to meet the moment<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019ll do his job,\u201d said Arniel of Hellebuyck. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to get him some run support. We\u2019ve got to get him the lead, we\u2019ve got to get out in front. Make this team chase us, instead of us chasing them like we have in the last couple of games.\u201d<\/p>\n Winnipeg has the worst shooting percentage of any playoff team.<\/p>\n The lack of finishing, after posting the third-best shooting percentage during the regular season, is a surprise. It should be a surprise in the same way that Hellebuyck sliding from best in the NHL to the second-worst save percentage in the playoffs is a surprise, but we\u2019ve spilled far more ink about the goaltender<\/a>.<\/p>\n Game 4 was the first time the Jets won the expected goals battle at five-on-five in the series, but it wasn\u2019t enough. Whether it was Gabriel Vilardi all alone in the slot three and a half minutes into the game or Kyle Connor, shorthanded, breaking in on Oettinger with the game-tying goal on his stick in the third period, Winnipeg\u2019s finishers need to finish.<\/p>\n Started with a big save from Otter \ud83e\udda6<\/p>\n Ended with a big goal from Granlund \ud83d\udea8 pic.twitter.com\/P7HpPY1mOO<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 14, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cWe had 70 shot attempts and scored one goal,\u201d Arniel said after Game 4. \u201cIf we can\u2019t find more than one goal, we\u2019re not going to win hockey games, especially against this hockey team.\u201d<\/p>\n The Jets\u2019 power play is the source of most of the regression, with only one goal on 23 shots. The Anaheim Ducks had the worst power-play shooting percentage (8.2 percent) in the NHL this season. Winnipeg\u2019s Round 2 percentage (4.2 percent) is roughly half as good.<\/p>\n The playoffs are about getting it done when the moment presents itself.<\/p>\n Connor is the Jets\u2019 best finisher, scoring 41 goals in 82 games during the season and five more in 11 playoff games. If anyone can go on a finishing run so unsustainably good it turns around a series, it\u2019s him, but Oettinger had Connor\u2019s number in Game 4.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s skill, work, and the habits you create,\u201d Connor told\u00a0The Athletic on Tuesday. \u201cIt\u2019s the reps you take in practice over the summer to be familiar with any situation that you get to be able to score.\u201d<\/p>\n No more implosions: Careless penalties count, too<\/p>\n The Jets took the fourth-fewest penalties in the league this season. They\u2019ve taken more than any other team in the playoffs. Some of their problems are self-inflicted.<\/p>\n Granlund had been on the ice for over a minute when Dylan DeMelo took a penalty for holding his stick in Game 4. He wasn\u2019t a likely threat to score off the rush at that moment, although Granlund did exactly that on the ensuing power play.<\/p>\n There was also the matter of Haydn Fleury\u2019s accidental high-sticking penalty \u2014 the four-minute double-minor that led to Granlund\u2019s hat-trick goal. Or Nino Niederreiter\u2019s high stick to start Game 3, followed by Josh Morrissey\u2019s tripping penalty to make it a five-on-three.<\/p>\n The Stars take enough of their success into their own hands. They don\u2019t need Winnipeg\u2019s help. And the problem with going down 3-1 in a series is that a team runs out of outs. If the Stars score a controversial goal or the referees make a horrid penalty call on Thursday, the Jets will have to deal with it and move on, or call it a season.<\/p>\n The Jets\u2019 secondary scorers need to meet the moment, too<\/p>\n Winnipeg is supposed to be able to count on its elite goaltender, its dynamic power play, and its depth scorers. Look at the Jets\u2019 Game 2 win for a great example: Hellebuyck got a shutout, Vilardi got a power-play goal and Adam Lowry scored, too.<\/p>\n The Jets are down 3-1 in part because the secondary scoring has gone cold.<\/p>\n Nikolaj Ehlers leads all Jets with three goals and one assist in four games against the Stars. Niederreiter, Josh Morrissey and Gabriel Vilardi are tied with three points each.<\/p>\n Then it\u2019s Connor, Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo, and Haydn Fleury at two points each. No one on the fourth line has picked up a point this series, nor have Cole Perfetti or Vladislav Namestnikov. The Jets have no chance to come back in this series if Connor and Scheifele can\u2019t separate themselves from DeMelo and Fleury on that list \u2014 and it would help if Perfetti or Namestnikov scored or somebody bounced a goal in off a Stars\u2019 player\u2019s skate.<\/p>\n Magic. The Jets need magic.<\/p>\n The odds of a Winnipeg Jets comeback are minuscule. Realistically, there\u2019s no series win without multiple things going right \u2014 great goaltending, more control of play, great finishing and\u00a0fewer careless penalties.<\/p>\n If, somehow, the Jets pull this off, they will need all of those things and good fortune, too. Maybe a Stars player will have to make an egregious mistake. Maybe Oettinger comes crashing back down to earth.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re going to have to go home and win the next one so we come back here (to Dallas),\u201d Arniel said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to get the job done, focus in on this next game. Game 5. That\u2019s what it\u2019s all about. Work to make sure that we get ourselves back here to Dallas for a Game 6.\u201d<\/p>\n Go through the 32 of 352 teams that have pulled off a win like this before \u2014 most recently, the 2023 Florida Panthers in the first round against the Boston Bruins \u2014 and you\u2019ll find a Matthew Tkachuk superstar turn, a sudden offensive explosion from Carter Verhaeghe, and luck. Lots of luck. The Panthers scored 15 times in three games and won two of them in overtime, including Game 7, which they tied with a minute to go in the third period. Historic comebacks go hand in hand with historic collapses.<\/p>\n The Stars are not built to falter. Our post-deadline look at the Central Division gave Dallas the edge<\/a> in the Central Division playoffs. Still, Winnipeg meets a crucial criterion for pulling off the unthinkable. Despite their 3-1 deficit and the angst that comes with it, the Jets are a legitimately good team.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a start, but only a start. The rest is up to them.<\/p>\n (Data via Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick)<\/p>\n (Photo: Sam Hodde \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
\nRantanen finds Roope Hintz in the center slot for a deflection just as a 5-on-3 power play ends
\nMikael Granlund steps into the high slot and shoots through Neal Pionk
\nMatt Duchene hits the post, the Stars recover, Granlund buries a one-timer from a Miro Heiskanen pass<\/p>\n