<\/p>\n
Seattle remains on top of the DVOA ratings after this week\u2019s big 44-22 win over Arizona. Surprisingly, the Seahawks drop a little bit despite the big win. They had two strip-sack touchdowns, and DVOA only looks at the fumble and does not account for the recovery and the return, both of which are mostly random. Seattle is now the No. 9 team in DVOA through nine games since 1978.<\/p>\n
Best Teams by DVOA Through 9 Games, 1978-2025<\/p>\n
Year
\nTeam
\nW-L
\nDVOA
\nOff
\nRk
\nDef
\nRk
\nST
\nRk<\/p>\n
2007
\nNE
\n9-0
\n71.4%
\n40.3%
\n1
\n-22.8%
\n2
\n8.3%
\n4<\/p>\n
1991
\nWAS
\n9-0
\n51.7%
\n19.0%
\n3
\n-20.4%
\n3
\n12.2%
\n1<\/p>\n
2023
\nBAL
\n7-2
\n49.0%
\n19.1%
\n4
\n-28.8%
\n2
\n1.1%
\n14<\/p>\n
2018
\nKC
\n8-1
\n47.9%
\n40.3%
\n1
\n0.7%
\n17
\n8.2%
\n1<\/p>\n
1996
\nGB
\n8-1
\n47.8%
\n16.7%
\n4
\n-26.7%
\n1
\n4.4%
\n6<\/p>\n
1985
\nCHI
\n9-0
\n47.7%
\n21.2%
\n3
\n-20.5%
\n1
\n6.0%
\n1<\/p>\n
2003
\nKC
\n9-0
\n47.6%
\n26.8%
\n1
\n-7.3%
\n8
\n13.5%
\n1<\/p>\n
1995
\nDAL
\n8-1
\n45.9%
\n35.6%
\n1
\n-7.5%
\n9
\n2.8%
\n7<\/p>\n
2025
\nSEA
\n7-2
\n45.9%
\n20.0%
\n4
\n-16.4%
\n3
\n9.4%
\n2<\/p>\n
1994
\nDAL
\n8-1
\n45.5%
\n26.0%
\n1
\n-16.2%
\n3
\n3.3%
\n6<\/p>\n
1992
\nDAL
\n8-1
\n45.3%
\n29.5%
\n1
\n-15.8%
\n4
\n0.0%
\n14<\/p>\n
1998
\nDEN
\n9-0
\n44.5%
\n34.5%
\n1
\n-9.3%
\n6
\n0.7%
\n12<\/p>\n
1990
\nNYG
\n9-0
\n44.3%
\n15.3%
\n3
\n-21.1%
\n4
\n7.8%
\n1<\/p>\n
The Los Angeles Rams also had a big win, 42-26 over the 49ers, and they move ahead of the Indianapolis Colts as our No. 2 team. This sets up the DVOA BOWL between our top two teams this Sunday! This game will be the 26th DVOA Bowl since 1978 where the top two teams meet in the regular season. There have also been 17 meetings between the top two teams in the playoffs. Rams-Seahawks is the fourth DVOA Bowl in the last three seasons. Here\u2019s a list of all the DVOA Bowl games since the year 2000:<\/p>\n
DVOA Bowl: No. 1 vs. No. 2 in Regular Season Since 2000<\/p>\n
Year
\nWeek
\nTeam
\nW-L
\nDVOA
\nRk
\nTeam
\nW-L
\nDVOA
\nRk
\nHome
\nScore<\/p>\n
2007
\n9
\nNE
\n8-0
\n71.9%
\n1
\nIND
\n7-0
\n48.3%
\n2
\nIND
\nNE, 24-20<\/p>\n
2008
\n10
\nNYG
\n7-1
\n35.7%
\n1
\nPHI
\n5-3
\n31.4%
\n2
\nPHI
\nNYG, 36-31<\/p>\n
2008
\n14
\nNYG
\n11-1
\n35.7%
\n1
\nPHI
\n6-5-1
\n26.6%
\n2
\nNYG
\nPHI, 20-14<\/p>\n
2009
\n6
\nNO
\n4-0
\n53.5%
\n1
\nNYG
\n5-0
\n48.9%
\n2
\nNO
\nNO, 48-22<\/p>\n
2015
\n17
\nARI
\n13-2
\n36.9%
\n1
\nSEA
\n9-6
\n29.5%
\n2
\nARI
\nSEA, 36-6<\/p>\n
2017
\n11
\nLAR
\n7-2
\n32.1%
\n1
\nMIN
\n7-2
\n31.8%
\n2
\nMIN
\nMIN, 24-7<\/p>\n
2017
\n14
\nPHI
\n10-2
\n31.5%
\n1
\nLAR
\n9-3
\n31.5%
\n2
\nLAR
\nPHI, 43-35<\/p>\n
2018
\n11
\nKC
\n9-1
\n47.3%
\n1
\nLAR
\n9-1
\n29.6%
\n2
\nLAR
\nLAR, 54-51<\/p>\n
2020
\n15
\nKC
\n12-1
\n27.9%
\n1
\nNO
\n10-3
\n27.3%
\n2
\nNO
\nKC, 32-29<\/p>\n
2023
\n4
\nBUF
\n2-1
\n55.5%
\n1
\nMIA
\n3-0
\n50.1%
\n2
\nBUF
\nBUF, 48-20<\/p>\n
2023
\n16
\nSF
\n11-3
\n46.7%
\n1
\nBAL
\n11-3
\n38.8%
\n2
\nSF
\nBAL, 33-19<\/p>\n
2024
\n7
\nMIN
\n5-0
\n41.0%
\n1
\nDET
\n4-1
\n34.2%
\n2
\nMIN
\nDET, 31-29<\/p>\n
2025
\n11
\nSEA
\n7-2
\n45.9%
\n1
\nLAR
\n7-2
\n35.2%
\n2
\nLAR<\/p>\n
Note that a lot of these games have been won by the No. 2 team and the Rams are the home team Sunday, so don\u2019t be surprised if the Seahawks go down and don\u2019t be surprised if they are still No. 1 next week despite a loss.<\/p>\n
Detroit and Kansas City stay in the fourth and fifth spots this week. Green Bay actually moves up a spot to No. 6 because of other teams dropping, namely the Buffalo Bills who are down from sixth to 11th. The Philadelphia Eagles climbed to seventh after their Monday night win against the Packers. Houston is eighth, Denver is ninth, and then a big surprise, Tampa Bay moving up to 10th after a 28-23 loss to the Patriots. Meanwhile, the surprising 8-2 Patriots are somehow down to 17th in DVOA despite the win.<\/p>\n
I discussed the Tampa Bay-New England game with guest Bryan Knowles on Monday\u2019s Schatz and Tanier NFL Podcast, which you can watch on YouTube here<\/a>. The Patriots had a Post-Game Win Expectancy of just 4.5% because they were so heavily dependent on three explosive plays: a 72-yard pass touchdown from Drake Maye<\/a> to Kyle Williams<\/a>, a 55-yard touchdown run by TreVeyon Henderson<\/a>, and a 69-yard touchdown run by Henderson. Overall, the Tampa Bay offense had a 52% success rate compared to just 33% for the Patriots, and the Buccaneers were also ahead in the turnover margin. Explosive plays are important, but success rate tends to be more predictive of future success, which is why keeping the chains moving will be weighted a little stronger in DVOA than the added yards from big plays.<\/p>\n Overall for the season, the Patriots are now ninth in offensive DVOA despite being 15th in success rate. Things are different on the other side, where the Patriots are just 29th in DVOA despite being 14th in success rate allowed, but this is where we really see New England\u2019s easy schedule come into play. Without a schedule adjustment, the Patriots defense would rank 18th in VOA. The average offense faced by the Patriots has an offensive DVOA of -11.8%. The Colts have the next-easiest schedule on defense at -8.2%. (Tennessee has had the toughest schedule on defense at 6.0%.)<\/p>\n The Patriots are only the second 8-2 team to ever have a negative DVOA. They are way ahead of the other one, which was the completely insane 2022 Minnesota Vikings at -12.1%. The good news for the Patriots is that their record means a lot more than their DVOA when it comes to the playoff chase, and they still have one of the league\u2019s easiest remaining schedules. So we have the Patriots now making the playoffs in 94% of our simulations and they win the division 69% of the time over Buffalo<\/a>. The Patriots have a 1.5-game lead on the Bills plus the head-to-head tiebreaker with the second game between the two teams coming in Foxborough in Week 15.<\/p>\n (Flex alert: Sunday night is currently the 4-5 Vikings at the 3-5-1 Cowboys that week. Would NBC actually move the Cowboys out of prime time? That week is actually filled with great Sunday afternoon games that could move including the second Chargers-Chiefs game, the Colts at the Seahawks, and the Lions at the Rams.)<\/p>\n * * * * *<\/p>\n Week 10 is also a good time to split the season in two and look back on which teams have been improving or declining over the last few weeks. There are some really big gaps between DVOA in the first five weeks compared to the last five weeks, and some of them are rather shocking, in particular the Cincinnati offense. How good has Joe Flacco<\/a> been since coming to Cincinnati? The Bengals are No. 1 in offensive DVOA since Week 6! They were 29th in Weeks 1-5 with Joe Burrow<\/a> and Jake Browning<\/a>.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a look at more of the biggest changes.<\/p>\n Offensive improvement since Week 6<\/p>\n Cincinnati from -22.1% (29) to 32.8% (1) Offensive decline since Week 6<\/p>\n Washington from 13.8% (8) to -17.4% (26) Defensive improvement since Week 6<\/p>\n Tampa Bay from 2.7% (21) to -28.8% (1) Defensive decline since Week 6<\/p>\n Atlanta from -12.4% (3) to -3.8% (14) The defensive decline for Green Bay and Philadelphia over the last five weeks is surprising to see given how well those teams played last night on defense, so it\u2019s obviously more about Weeks 6-9 rather than Week 10.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n * * * * *<\/p>\n
\nNew York Giants from -21.7% (28) to 11.3% (12)<\/p>\n
\nTampa Bay from 11.3% (10) to -10.8% (23)
\nHouston from 1.8% (15) to -11.6% (24)<\/p>\n
\nMiami from 24.4% (32) to -11.6% (7)
\nBaltimore from 14.0% (27) to -11.2% (8)
\nLos Angeles Chargers from -1.0% (19) to -10.2% (9)<\/p>\n
\nGreen Bay from -12.2% (4) to -4.5% (13)
\nPhiladelphia from -10.2% (7) to 2.0% (20)
\nWashington from -6.3% (13) to 22.9% (31)<\/p>\n