Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 12\u2019s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts.<\/p>\n
The early-season-maligned Chiefs are sitting 5-5 at just the right time this year, listening to the crowd ask whether the magic<\/a> is on pause or gone. Indianapolis walks in at eight and two with the league\u2019s loudest offense and a tailback playing like a metronome with teeth. Mahomes still owns the building, but Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Lou Anarumo arrive carrying momentum and receipts. Pacheco on the shelf, Sauce Gardner in horseshoe blue, and a dynasty wobbling turns this into a real referendum, not a routine home date. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11\u2019s game between the Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> and the Indianapolis Colts.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n Indianapolis gives you a statistical profile that usually lays a field goal, not takes it, even on the road. The Colts score 32.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per snap and rank No. 1 in total offensive EPA and EPA per play around +0.18. They\u2019re sitting on roughly +110 offensive EPA with about 0.54 points per play, built on a 69.1% completion rate, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and 5.3 yards per rush. Jones sits No. 1 in EPA per play and success rate with top-tier yards per attempt and deep-shot volume, plus almost 1,000 play-action yards, second in the league. His sack rate is around 6% on the year, and he adds five rushing touchdowns with a positive EPA even when pressured. Taylor averages 113.9 rushing yards at 6.0 per carry with 17 total touchdowns in 10 games and about a 69% share of the team\u2019s rush attempts. He owns 6.0 yards after contact per catch as a receiver and a red-zone touchdown rate that has turned 15 of his carries inside the 10 into scores. Tyler Warren sits around a 21% target share at 1.99 yards per route, while Michael Pittman supplies steady WR1 volume and red-zone work. Together they\u2019ve helped push Indy to a 42.0% third-down conversion rate and 81.0% on fourth down, with a low combined turnover rate around 1.8% on picks and 0.6% on fumbles. They\u2019ve cleared 30 points in six of 10 games, and the down-to-down efficiency matches the scoreboard.<\/p>\n Kansas City\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9 looks weird, not weak. They score 25.4 points per game with roughly 370 yards and 5.8 yards per snap, sitting in the top tier of offensive EPA and success rate despite the .500 record. Their offense has generated about +92 offensive EPA with 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 4.5 yards per rush, and a pass rate north of 56% on neutral downs. The defense allows only 18.1 points and just under 300 yards per game, grading top-four in EPA per snap, especially against the pass and in the red zone. They\u2019ve given up only nine passing touchdowns, hold opponents around 6.7 yards per pass, and sit in the low-40s on third-down conversions allowed with a red-zone touchdown rate near 50%. Mahomes brings 2,625 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, plus meaningful rushing into another Anarumo matchup. His QBR sits in the 70s, his sack rate is just over 5%, and his scramble production has added almost 300 rushing yards and four scores. Travis Kelce has 50 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns and just set the franchise receiving-TD record. Pacheco\u2019s knee absence removes their only true run spark; Kareem Hunt sits at 86 carries for 353 yards (4.1 per rush) while the Chiefs sit dead last in explosive rush rate over the last two seasons. That pushes even more weight onto a passing game staring at Gardner, Charvarius Ward, and Kenny Moore in a disguise-heavy structure.<\/p>\n Colts vs. Chiefs<\/a> pick, best bet<\/p>\n The best Chiefs case leans on structure, variance, and history. They are 5\u20135 straight up, 5\u20135 ATS, 0\u20135 in one-score games, and 3\u20137 to the under. That profile screams close-game variance more than systemic failure. Arrowhead still turns every third down into a communication exam, and Mahomes remains the best late-down problem in football. Anarumo\u2019s defenses have previously cracked when quarterbacks extend plays past 2.6 seconds, and Mahomes lives in that world, especially with Kelce working option space. But Gardner\u2019s arrival plus Ward\u2019s return gives Indy its best corner trio yet, while the Colts\u2019 front plays from the comfort of an offense that forces you to chase. When you add Pacheco\u2019s absence to Kansas City\u2019s explosive-run issues, it gets hard to justify laying more than a field goal.<\/p>\n Market-wise, Kansas City sits around -3.5 with a total near 49.5\u201350. My fair number feels closer to Chiefs -1, maybe -1.5 with Pacheco healthy, given Indy\u2019s No. 1 offensive EPA profile and a defense allowing 20.6 points per game. The Colts are 6\u20133\u20131 ATS and almost always live inside the number because the offense rarely vanishes for quarters at a time. Kansas City\u2019s under trend lines up with their defense but runs into a Colts attack that lives above 30 and punishes light boxes. I\u2019d rather take the points with the better balanced team than pay a premium for Arrowhead mystique and one-score regression.<\/p>\n Script-wise, I expect Shane Steichen to lean into 11 personnel, motion, and RPO, forcing Kansas City to choose between light boxes or clean play-action windows to Warren and Pittman. Anarumo should trust Gardner and Ward in press, spin late safeties, and lean on simulated pressure to chase Mahomes without emptying coverage. Kansas City will have to throw more than it wants, using Kelce and Xavier Worthy against match coverage and hoping Mahomes\u2019 legs bridge second-and-long. That flow keeps scoring healthy but tilts control toward Indianapolis, with Taylor\u2019s body shots and Jones\u2019 play-action explosives steering tempo. <\/p>\n I\u2019m on Colts +3.5 and Jonathan Taylor over his rushing yardage, with a projected landing of Chiefs 27, Colts 26.<\/p>\n Best bet: Colts +3.5 (-115) at Chiefs<\/a><\/p>\n Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here<\/a>!<\/p>\n For a prop lean, Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards at +125 is how I want to ride the Colts. He\u2019s averaging 113.9 rushing yards at 6.0 per carry with 17 total touchdowns and has already cleared 100 in five of 10 games, including that 244-yard Berlin detonation when volume tilted his way. Kansas City\u2019s front is allowing about 4.2 yards per carry and sits in the bottom third of rush EPA, and now they\u2019re playing without Isiah Pacheco to help them control script on the other side. Steichen leans into shotgun and under-center run from 11 personnel, marries it to play-action, and Taylor owns roughly 69% of Indianapolis\u2019 rush attempts, so his workload is insulated even if the game stays tight. I\u2019d rather ride Taylor\u2019s carries than a thin Chiefs backfield missing its spark, especially against a defense built to stop Mahomes, not a downhill hammer. I like 100+ at +125 and would still play it down to +110.<\/p>\n Best prop lean: Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards (+125)<\/a><\/p>\n