{"id":571242,"date":"2025-12-02T21:07:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T21:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/571242\/"},"modified":"2025-12-02T21:07:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T21:07:00","slug":"college-football-bowl-projections-how-alabamas-fate-could-reshape-the-postseason","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/571242\/","title":{"rendered":"College football bowl projections: How Alabama\u2019s fate could reshape the postseason"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic as live coverage of the latest release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings.<\/a><\/p>\n

All eyes are on Alabama this weekend, and it\u2019s not just because the Tide currently occupy the final at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. What happens to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game could impact up to 30 other bowl matchups, most of which have nothing to do with the game itself.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at it from three different angles. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, then only the slotting within the current CFP rankings changes. Two, if Alabama loses a one-score game, it\u2019s difficult to imagine the Tide falling from their current spot. (If that were to happen, conference\u2019s desire to keep staging championship games will disintegrate faster than an ice cube at a summer picnic.)<\/p>\n

But a third outcome could have major ramifications. If Georgia beats Alabama soundly \u2014 say, 31-17 \u2014 will the Tide remain in the CFP lineup? If not, will Miami or BYU (if it loses to Texas Tech) replace Alabama?\u00a0 Let\u2019s ride this scenario for a minute.<\/p>\n

If Miami jumps ahead of Alabama and BYU, then its head-to-head result with Notre Dame will come into focus, and the Hurricanes could sneak past the Irish. Meanwhile, Alabama would fall into the SEC\u2019s non-CFP bowl pool. It probably wouldn\u2019t head to the Citrus Bowl, which wouldn\u2019t want to match it up with Michigan for the third straight bowl cycle. The ReliaQuest Bowl, where it played last year, hasn\u2019t had a repeat participant since Tennessee in 2007-08.<\/p>\n

So, if Alabama falls, does it go to the Gator Bowl or the Music City Bowl? The answer impacts the rest of the conference. But the SEC projects to have two vacancies in its lineup, and many Group of 6 teams would love to get a crack at an SEC bowl with a vacancy \u2014 right now, that projects to be the Liberty and Duke\u2019s Mayo bowls. The ripple effect for other bowls would be felt from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n

For now, we\u2019ll keep projecting the Tide in the CFP, considering they won at Georgia during the regular season. Here are a few other noteworthy projections:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Should BYU lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the Cougars are likely headed back to the Alamo Bowl for the second straight season. BYU would play a Pac-12 legacy team, most likely USC, which has never played in the Alamo Bowl.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Michigan-Texas in the Citrus Bowl on New Year\u2019s Eve would approach CFP-level television ratings. It also could serve as a 2026 Heisman Trophy springboard between Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Michigan\u2019s Bryce Underwood.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Iowa State and Minnesota\u2019s campuses are located just three hours apart, and the teams constantly recruit against one another, but they\u2019ve played just five times in the last 101 years. A duel in the desert would entertain both fan bases.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Pittsburgh vs. Penn State at Yankee Stadium for their 101st meeting would have Pinstripe Bowl officials dancing in the Bronx.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia battling Iowa\u2019s defense under coordinator Phil Parker in Tampa would kick off New Year\u2019s Eve in fine fashion.<\/p>\n

This year, all 82 bowl slots can be filled without turning to Academic Progress Rates among 5-7 squads. If a team drops out due to player attrition like Marshall did last year, then Auburn would be the first alternate.<\/p>\n

A few evergreen notes:<\/p>\n

The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls. Teams seeded 5-8 host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. The next-highest ranked squad heads to the closest remaining bowl site to its campus.<\/p>\n

The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference\u2019s old agreements. It\u2019s possible to see current in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.<\/p>\n

ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl and will move it to a different location, which has yet to be announced. It will take place.<\/p>\n

BowlMatchup<\/p>\n

LA
\n Dec. 13, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 6 Arizona State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC 1 Boise State<\/p>\n

Salute to Veterans
\n Dec. 16, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Southern Miss<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Toledo<\/p>\n

Cure
\n Dec. 17, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Old Dominion<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5\/Open Kennesaw State<\/p>\n

68 Ventures
\n Dec. 17, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Louisiana<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Missouri State<\/p>\n

Myrtle Beach
\n Dec. 19, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Georgia Southern<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Delaware<\/p>\n

Gasparilla
\n Dec. 19, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/AAC NC State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open USF<\/p>\n

Famous Idaho Potato
\n Dec. 22, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC Utah State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Central Michigan<\/p>\n

Boca Raton
\n Dec. 23, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Coastal Carolina<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Florida International<\/p>\n

New Orleans
\n Dec. 23, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Troy<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA Jacksonville State<\/p>\n

Frisco
\n Dec. 23, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Texas State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Fresno State<\/p>\n

Hawai’i
\n Dec. 24, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC Hawaii<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American\/Other California<\/p>\n

GameAbove Sports
\n Dec. 26, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 8 Northwestern<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Ohio<\/p>\n

Rate
\n Dec. 26, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 7 Minnesota<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 6 Iowa State<\/p>\n

First Responder
\n Dec. 26, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Washington State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Arkansas State<\/p>\n

Military
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Navy<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 8 Louisville<\/p>\n

Pinstripe
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 6 Penn State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Fenway
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 9 Duke<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Army<\/p>\n

Arizona
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC San Diego State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC 2 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Pop-Tarts
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 3 TCU<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech<\/p>\n

New Mexico
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC New Mexico<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open UTSA<\/p>\n

Gator
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Miami<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Missouri<\/p>\n

Texas
\n Dec. 27, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 4 Houston<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 LSU<\/p>\n

Birmingham
\n Dec. 29, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC\/SEC\/Open East Carolina<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/Open UConn<\/p>\n

Independence
\n Dec. 30, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 7 Kansas State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA\/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech<\/p>\n

Music City
\n Dec. 30, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 5 Illinois<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Tennessee<\/p>\n

Alamo
\n Dec. 30, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 2 BYU<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 2 USC<\/p>\n

ReliaQuest
\n Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 3 Iowa<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt<\/p>\n

Sun
\n Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Clemson<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 5 Arizona<\/p>\n

Citrus
\n Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 2 Michigan<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 2 Texas<\/p>\n

Las Vegas
\n Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 3 Utah<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 4 Nebraska<\/p>\n

Armed Forces
\n Jan. 2, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open UNLV<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American North Texas<\/p>\n

Liberty
\n Jan. 2, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 5 Cincinnati<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Memphis<\/p>\n

Duke’s Mayo
\n Jan. 2, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 James Madison<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Wake Forest<\/p>\n

Holiday
\n Jan. 2, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 SMU<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 4 Washington<\/p>\n

Bahamas\/TBD
\n undefined NaN, NaN<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Miami (OH)<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA Western Kentucky<\/p>\n

BowlMatchup<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 19, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

7 Ole Miss<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

10 Alabama<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

6 Texas A&M<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

11 Virginia<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

5 Oregon<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

12 Tulane<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

8 Oklahoma<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

9 Notre Dame<\/p>\n

Cotton
\n Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

3 Indiana<\/p>\n

A&M\/UVA winner<\/p>\n

Orange
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

4 Texas Tech<\/p>\n

ORE\/Tulane winner<\/p>\n

Rose
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

1 Ohio State<\/p>\n

ND\/OU winner<\/p>\n

Sugar
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

2 Georgia<\/p>\n

Ole Miss\/Bama winner<\/p>\n

Fiesta
\n Jan. 8, 2026<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

Peach
\n Jan. 9, 2026<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

Championship
\n Jan. 19, 2026<\/p>\n

SF winner<\/p>\n

SF winner<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic as live coverage of the latest release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings. All eyes…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":571243,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[9436,4715,4707,843,331,4706,7643,4709,4713,7,4716,5042,4728,4725,1286,4720,4719,4722,577,1868,3364,2972,2549,71,22805,4727,4712,4604,6,84,4714,4717,8243,69,1787,4723,2743,3861,4729,4726,4710,4431,3862,4724,5041,1078,4721,4711,22804,4708,4718,3863,3201,1300,2785],"class_list":{"0":"post-571242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-baylor-bears","9":"tag-boston-college-eagles","10":"tag-cincinnati-bearcats","11":"tag-clemson-tigers","12":"tag-college-football","13":"tag-connecticut-huskies","14":"tag-duke-blue-devils","15":"tag-east-carolina-pirates","16":"tag-florida-state-seminoles","17":"tag-football","18":"tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","19":"tag-houston-cougars","20":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","21":"tag-indiana-hoosiers","22":"tag-iowa-hawkeyes","23":"tag-iowa-state-cyclones","24":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","25":"tag-kansas-state-wildcats","26":"tag-louisville-cardinals","27":"tag-maryland-terrapins","28":"tag-memphis-tigers","29":"tag-miami-hurricanes","30":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","31":"tag-michigan-wolverines","32":"tag-middle-tennessee-blue-raider","33":"tag-minnesota-golden-gophers","34":"tag-navy-midshipmen","35":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","36":"tag-nfl","37":"tag-nfl-playoffs","38":"tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","39":"tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","40":"tag-northwestern-wildcats","41":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","42":"tag-oklahoma-sooners","43":"tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","44":"tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","45":"tag-pittsburgh-panthers","46":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","47":"tag-rutgers-scarlet-knights","48":"tag-smu-mustangs","49":"tag-south-florida-bulls","50":"tag-syracuse-orange","51":"tag-tcu-horned-frogs","52":"tag-temple-owls","53":"tag-texas-longhorns","54":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","55":"tag-tulane-green-wave","56":"tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","57":"tag-ucf-knights","58":"tag-virginia-cavaliers","59":"tag-virginia-tech-hokies","60":"tag-wake-forest-demon-deacons","61":"tag-west-virginia-mountaineers","62":"tag-wisconsin-badgers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571242\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}