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<\/a>As it stands, the NFC has a host of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson\u2018s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Because of their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles\u2019 Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, but the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.<\/p>\nThe Bears have not earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears have not managed a playoff win since. ESPN\u2019s Football Power Index gives the current NFC leader a 12% chance of holding the top spot. That figure sits fifth in the conference.<\/p>\n
While the Johnson hire has proven the catalyst for the Bears\u2019 climb \u2014 after four straight playoff absences \u2014 the team\u2019s decision to overhaul its offensive line<\/a> has played a big role as well. The trades for Jonah Jackson<\/a> and Joe Thuney<\/a>, along with the Drew Dalman<\/a> signing, has helped the Bears rank second in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate this season. This group powered D\u2019Andre Swift<\/a> and Kyle Monangai<\/a> to 100-yard days in Philly on Black Friday. The team also saw Jaylon Johnson<\/a> and Kyler Gordon<\/a>, whose offseason extension topped the slot cornerback market, activated from IR for the stretch run<\/a>.<\/p>\n Love has shown more growth in 2025, ranking third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft<\/a> is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed<\/a> \u2014 its leading receiver in 2023 and \u201924 \u2014 available since Week 2. Reed is in the IR-return window<\/a>, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson<\/a> \u2014 who returned midseason from an ACL tear \u2014 step forward along with Romeo Doubs<\/a>. The Pack have not seen too much from first-round pick Matthew Golden<\/a>, however, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave<\/a> gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.<\/p>\n The Packers did not exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being unreliable for most of Aaron Rodgers<\/a>\u2018 stay. But Jeff Hafley\u2018s unit ranks sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage. EPA is a bit more skeptical, slotting the Pack 14th defensively. The team\u2019s Micah Parsons<\/a> blockbuster trade\/extension sequence<\/a> has made an impact. Parsons\u2019 36 pressures trail only Myles Garrett<\/a> (39) this season; the ex-Cowboy dynamo has 12.5 sacks \u2014 already just 1.5 shy of a career high.<\/p>\n L.A. has also benefited from good injury fortune this season. Until Rob Havenstein<\/a>\u2018s setback, the Rams\u2019 O-line has rebounded from injury-plagued campaigns, with Puka Nacua<\/a> also avoiding IR. Chris Shula\u2018s defense ranks second in points, putting him on the radar to become the third Shula<\/a> appointed an NFL HC. FPI gives the Rams, who have not held the No. 1 seed since 2001, a 30% chance to do so \u2014 tops in the conference. The Rams have three games against sub-.500 teams, though they do face the Lions and Seahawks as well.<\/p>\n Seattle limited Stafford in a Week 11 loss, but Sam Darnold<\/a>\u2018s four-INT day impeded a road win. The Seahawks have otherwise seen Darnold reward them for another offseason QB gamble<\/a>, as they gave the nomadic QB a three-year, $100.5MM deal days after trading Geno Smith<\/a>. Darnold is all but certain to collect the additional $17.5MM due in February. While Kupp has stayed healthy, he only has 438 receiving yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a> has rendered that a minor concern, as his NFL-most 1,336 have him gunning for Calvin Johnson<\/a>\u2018s single-season record (1,964), setting up the 2023 first-rounder for a monster extension; he is eligible for a new deal in January.<\/p>\n Mike Macdonald\u2018s defense has surpassed expectations, ranking third in points allowed and EPA per play. Byron Murphy<\/a> has taken a major step forward, going from a half-sack as a rookie to seven this season, while the DeMarcus Lawrence<\/a> and Ernest Jones<\/a> signings have paid off as well. The Hawks will need to upend the Rams to have a realistic shot at the 1 seed, and they also have games against the 49ers, Colts and Panthers. FPI gives Seattle a 16% chance at what would be its first 1 seed since 2014.<\/p>\n Given a 15% chance at claiming what would be their third No. 1 seed of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers follow their Titans matchup with games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Only one road game (Indianapolis) remains on San Francisco\u2019s docket.<\/p>\n FPI gives the Eagles only an 8% chance at the top seed, despite the team\u2019s head-to-head Rams tiebreaker. Philly\u2019s latest OC change, installing longtime Nick Sirianni coworker Kevin Patullo in the play-calling role, has keyed an uneven Super Bowl title defense<\/a>. Saquon Barkley<\/a> has not come close to matching his stratospheric 2024 form, and QBR ranks Jalen Hurts<\/a> 19th. Top O-lineman Lane Johnson<\/a> has a Lisfranc injury, though he is not on IR<\/a>, while more A.J. Brown<\/a> drama has unfolded ahead of likely 2026 trade rumors.<\/p>\n While Vic Fangio\u2018s defense looked better following some deadline trades (most notably the Jaelan Phillips<\/a> move), it surrendered 281 rushing yards to the Bears after a collapse in Dallas. The Eagles\u2019 schedule does cooperate for a potential third No. 1 seed since 2017. After a game against a potentially Justin Herbert<\/a>-less Chargers team, two Commanders tilts await. Philly does have a Buffalo trip in Week 17, however.<\/p>\n Who will end up claiming the NFC\u2019s top seed? Vote in PFR\u2019s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.<\/p>\n<\/a>Chicago, however, closes with four games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. In addition to the two Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make along with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN\u2019s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% chance to hold the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds \u2014 in 2020 and \u201921 \u2014 but have not come especially close to such real estate during Jordan Love<\/a>\u2018s starter run.<\/p>\n<\/a>Concerns about Matthew Stafford<\/a>\u2018s summer back injury were overblown, and the 17th-year quarterback is pushing for an MVP \u2014 an accomplishment that would strengthen a Hall of Fame case light on accolades. The one-time original-ballot Pro Bowler\u2019s 32:4 TD-INT ratio has powered the Rams, who have benefited from their Cooper Kupp<\/a>-to-Davante Adams<\/a> upgrade. The NFL\u2019s active touchdown reception leader (117) has a league-high 14 this season.<\/p>\n<\/a>San Francisco is somehow 8-4 despite losing Nick Bosa<\/a>, Fred Warner<\/a> and Mykel Williams<\/a> for the season \u2014 along with Brock Purdy<\/a> for much of it. The recently extended starter has not played especially well, but he is not expected to be 100% after a turf toe injury until the offseason. Mac Jones<\/a>\u2018 two-year, $7MM contract has proven to be a bargain, as the once-maligned QB has gone 5-3 as a starter this season. Jones ranks 10th in QBR. Robert Saleh\u2018s return has also aided the 49ers, who rank eighth defensively (though, EPA is far more skeptical, slotting Saleh\u2019s crew 24th).<\/p>\n