{"id":573037,"date":"2025-12-03T15:20:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T15:20:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/573037\/"},"modified":"2025-12-03T15:20:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T15:20:12","slug":"houston-texans-path-to-the-playoffs-heading-into-week-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/573037\/","title":{"rendered":"Houston Texans Path to the Playoffs Heading into Week 14"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Houston Texans have won four straight games but still can\u2019t sniff the playoffs due to a competitive AFC race. While their chances to make the playoffs haven\u2019t budged since last week\u2019s article<\/a>, their likelihood to win the division has never been higher. The leaders in the division, Indianapolis and Jacksonville, face off this week for the outright lead.<\/p>\n

The knife\u2019s blade that is the playoff race got even more sharp this week as seven of the top 10 teams remaining won. Realistically, Houston can only afford to lose one more game<\/a> and confidently make the playoffs. The Texans face a Chiefs team whose playoff odds fell 20% after losing to the Cowboys. Conversely, the Jags saw their chances spike by 9% by crushing the Titans.<\/p>\n

Houston is not out of the playoffs yet and still control their own destiny. To track their progress toward the playoffs, I will be providing a weekly update on the greater playoff picture and their chase of a third AFC South title in a row.<\/p>\n

Playoff Spot9%RecordWeek 14 OpponentPlayoff Probability %FIRST ROUND BYEAFC East winnerNEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS11-2BYE99%AFC West winnerDENVER BRONCOS10-2at Las Vegas99%AFC South winnerJACKSONVILLE JAGUARS8-4vs Indanapolis83%AFC North winnerBALTIMORE RAVENS6-6vs Pittsburgh64%Wild Card SpotLA CHARGERS8-4vs Eagles (MNF)61%Wild Card SpotINDIANAPOLIS COLTS8-4at Jacksonville68%Wild Card SpotBUFFALO BILLS8-4vs Cincinnati91%In the HuntHOUSTON TEXANS7-5at Chiefs (SNF)60%In the HuntPITTSBURGH STEELERS6-6at Baltimore30%In the HuntKANSAS CITY CHIEFS6-6vs Texans (SNF)37%<\/p>\n

Current AFC South Picture<\/p>\n

AFC SouthMake PlayoffsWin DivisionFirst Round ByeJACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4)83%42%3%INDANAPOLIS COLTS (8-4)68%34%1%HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5)60%24%0%TENNESEE TITANS (1-11)Eliminated0%0%<\/p>\n

Texans only improve to a 60% chance for a playoff birth according to The Athletic, up from 53%. Their likelihood to win the AFC South improved by 5%, which feels low considering they are one game out and have four wins in the division.<\/p>\n

Texans at Chiefs Playoff Implications<\/p>\n

HIGH. Houston could deliver a body blow to the Chiefs\u2019 playoff chances on Sunday Night Football with a win over the refs\u2026 I mean the Chiefs. I can\u2019t imagine the league would want Kelce and Taylor and Mahomes out of the playoff picture with four weeks to go, but frankly, they should have won more.<\/p>\n

Houston winning would increase their chances to make the playoffs from 60% to 85% according to the Athletic.<\/a> However, a loss would decrease their changes to 46%.<\/p>\n

Week 13 Matchups to Watch<\/p>\n

Pittsburg Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 EST)<\/p>\n

While Houston\u2019s chances don\u2019t improve with either team winning, any NFL fan can attest that they do not want their team to face Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. The 6-6 Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling on offense and lack a true passing game. The Ravens snapped their five-game winning streak against the Bengals who convincingly beat them in Joe Burrow\u2019s first game back.<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1;00 EST)<\/p>\n

Texans fans should root for the Colts. Indianapolis has a more difficult schedule down the stretch. Plus, Houston still has one game left against the Colts where they can secure the head-to-head tie breaker over their rival. The Texans broke even against the Jags this year. Whoever wins this game will have sole possession of the AFC South.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday, 8:15 EST)<\/p>\n

Los Angeles faces a brutal gauntlet down the stretch that includes the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Broncos. If the Eagles can muster a victory over the Chargers, it alone improves our chances by 2%. The Chargers hold one of the wild card spots and will face Houston in four weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Houston Texans have won four straight games but still can\u2019t sniff the playoffs due to a competitive…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":550533,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2056],"tags":[7,221,253,80647,2368,6,222],"class_list":{"0":"post-573037","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-houston-texans","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-houston","10":"tag-houston-texans","11":"tag-houston-texans-analysis","12":"tag-houstontexans","13":"tag-nfl","14":"tag-texans"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115656315759342595","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=573037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/573037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=573037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=573037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=573037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}