{"id":581506,"date":"2025-12-06T21:26:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T21:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/581506\/"},"modified":"2025-12-06T21:26:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-06T21:26:34","slug":"buffalo-bills-trending-up-down-ahead-of-week-14-vs-cincinnati-bengals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/581506\/","title":{"rendered":"Buffalo Bills trending up\/down ahead of Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The Buffalo Bills are riding high into Week 14, fresh off a gritty 26-7 demolition of the Pittsburgh Steelers that snapped a mini-skid and boosted their record to 8-4. In a game that saw the Bills flip the script after a sloppy first half \u2014 trailing 7-3 at the break \u2014 they unleashed a second-half shutout, piling up 249 rushing yards and forcing turnovers that turned Acrisure Stadium into a house of horrors for the struggling Steelers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Quarterback Josh Allen wrote his name in the record books yet again with his 76th career rushing touchdown, breaking quarterback Cam Newton\u2019s mark, while running back James Cook III bulldozed for 144 yards on 32 carries. Defensively, cornerback Christian Benford\u2019s 17-yard fumble return for a score off quarterback Aaron Rodgers ignited the rout.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">With a pivotal AFC clash against the 4-8 Bengals looming \u2014 where quarterback Joe Burrow\u2019s aerial assault could exploit any cracks \u2014 the Bills\u2019 momentum hinges on key contributors heating up. But not everyone\u2019s firing on all cylinders. As always, we\u2019ve dissected the tape, stats, and advanced metrics to spotlight the heroes surging into Cincinnati and the head-scratchers who need a reset. Let\u2019s break it down.<\/p>\n<p>Trending Up: Heroes Heating the Engine<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">These three Bills have helped spark Buffalo\u2019s recent surge, blending solid Week 13 performances with season-long growth that could result in filling the stat sheet against Joe Burrow\u2019s Bengals.<\/p>\n<p>1. LB Shaq Thompson: \u201cI\u2019m the Captain now\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249563945.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0.0032008194097628,100,99.99359836118\" data-pswp-height=\"5206.666666666667\" data-pswp-width=\"7810\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 30: Shaq Thompson #45 of the Buffalo Bills leads a huddle prior to an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1765056351_47_gettyimages-2249563945.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>PITTSBURGH, PA &#8211; NOVEMBER 30: Shaq Thompson #45 of the Buffalo Bills leads a huddle prior to an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Linebacker Shaq Thompson has been a revelation since suiting up for Buffalo, making the most of every opportunity and becoming an indispensable piece in the middle of Buffalo\u2019s defense. In Week 13, Thompson led the team with nine tackles (five solo) and added much-needed physicality to the unit against the run game, earning a stellar 85.2 Pro Football Focus (PFF) overall grade \u2014 his highest since arriving. Over the season, Thompson\u2019s amassed 41 total tackles (24 solo), one sack, one forced fumble, and 2.5 tackles for loss. Still, it\u2019s his elite coverage that shines: an 82.9 PFF coverage grade (2nd among 84 qualifiers) and allowing just 2.9 yards per route run in man coverage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Advanced metrics highlight his impact \u2014 Thompson\u2019s 73.7 run-defense grade (30th) paired with a 63.5 pass-rush grade has him at an 83.1 overall PFF mark (6th at LB), a bounce-back year after his Panthers injury struggles. He\u2019s been everything that\u2019s been expected from defensive captain Terrel Bernard, on and off the field, where he\u2019s taken the leadership role and has been fundamental with his leadership qualities and knowledge of the game. Shaq\u2019s presence should be crucial to help the Bills\u2019 defense stop the run game and contain Burrow\u2019s quick-passing game efficiency (68.4% completion rate).<\/p>\n<p>2. WR Tyrell Shavers: The Emerging Two-Way Threat<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249242195.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0.012345679012341,100,99.975308641975\" data-pswp-height=\"2699.3333333333335\" data-pswp-width=\"4049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 30: Tyrell Shavers #14 and head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills high five in the second quarter of a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249242195.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA &#8211; NOVEMBER 30: Tyrell Shavers #14 and head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills high five in the second quarter of a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers has evolved from a practice-squad hopeful into a versatile contributor for the Bills, stepping up following Mack Hollins\u2019 departure in free agency and taking over his previous role. His standout blocking in the run game has been a key factor in Buffalo\u2019s ground dominance, particularly evident in Week 13 against the Steelers, where he logged a 78.2 PFF run-blocking grade while helping pave lanes for James Cook\u2019s 144-yard outburst. On the season, Shavers boasts a 72.6 overall PFF run-blocking grade (top-25 among WRs with 200+ snaps), with 14 positive-graded blocks and just two negatives, per PFF \u2014 directly contributing to the Bills\u2019 league-leading 5.1 yards per carry on outside zones.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Shavers\u2019 hard-nosed playing style has earned him expanded opportunities in the offense: He\u2019s played 294 offensive snaps through 12 games (36.9% share), including a team-high 61% among wideouts in the win against Pittsburgh and over 50% in four of the last five contests. This consistent field time \u2014 far exceeding his depth chart label \u2014 shows the trust coaches have in him, setting the stage for more targets as defenses key on wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid (when healthy).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">When the ball does come his way, Shavers has proven he can make defenses pay: 11-for-17 for 172 yards and a touchdown this season (15.6 YPC), with a 12.6 aDOT (top-20 among WRs with 15+ targets), 19.4 air yards per route, 5.4 YAC\/reception (best on the team), zero drops, and a 75% contested-catch rate. Add his 2025 preseason explosion (6-123-1, 20.5 YPC, 58-yard long) and it\u2019s clear \u2014 Shavers has earned more looks and can become a big-play threat waiting to happen.<\/p>\n<p>3. RB Ray Davis: The Power-Back Spark<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249561563.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"5138\" data-pswp-width=\"7707\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 30: Ray Davis #22 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249561563.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>PITTSBURGH, PA &#8211; NOVEMBER 30: Ray Davis #22 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Running back Ray Davis\u2019 2025 season had been quiet, but he was showing glimpses of what he could do with some big kickoff returns recently. In the rout of the Steelers, Davis erupted for 62 yards on nine carries (6.9 YPC), including a 15-yard burst that chewed clock in the fourth, earning a 77.9 PFF run grade (3rd on offense). His season line \u2014 33 carries for 106 yards (3.2 YPC), plus four catches for 18 yards and one score \u2014 remind us of his limited opportunities (as the third back in the rotation) in a year where James Cook has established himself as one of the top workhorses in the NFL. However, Davis\u2019 vision and burst are still there, as shown in Week 13, and he can certainly offer a breath for Buffalo\u2019s go-to guy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Facing a Bengals run D that\u2019s surrendered 4.7 YPC (28th) and 120+ rush yards in five of their last seven, Davis could feast if given more reps, spelling Cook and punishing a front featuring defensive tackle B.J. Hill\u2019s 3.2% stuff rate.<\/p>\n<p>Trending Down: Head-Scratchers in Need of a Fix<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">While the Bills trend in the right direction, these three players have hit skids that may hurt the team\u2019s chances in the short- and long-term.<\/p>\n<p>1. LB Terrel Bernard: Injury Concerns Mounting<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/11\/gettyimages-2246060218.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0.0046023564064797,0,99.990795287187,100\" data-pswp-height=\"3621\" data-pswp-width=\"5431.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 2: Terrel Bernard #8 of the Buffalo Bills runs onto the field prior to an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 2, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2246060218.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK &#8211; NOVEMBER 2: Terrel Bernard #8 of the Buffalo Bills runs onto the field prior to an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 2, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Linebacker Terrel Bernard has officially been ruled out for Week 14 against the Bengals with a lingering pectoral\/shoulder issue, the latest chapter in a 2025 season plagued by injury. After missing three games earlier with an ankle sprain and now sidelined again, Bernard has appeared in only eight contests, routinely listed as questionable and clearly laboring when on the field. The results when playing hurt have been rough: a career-low 58.7 PFF overall grade, a 52.3 tackling grade, zero sacks, and opponents averaging 4.8 yards per carry when running at him \u2014 well below the standard he set in 2023 and 2024 as Buffalo\u2019s green-dot wearer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">At a listed 6\u20191\u201d, 224 pounds, Bernard has always looked smaller than those numbers and has relied on instincts and quickness rather than bulk. That profile has made him vulnerable to the weekly pounding of NFL run fits and pass-rush collisions, and the injury history is starting to pile up faster than anticipated for a 26-year-old in his fourth season. Long-term durability questions are fair when a linebacker built like a safety keeps landing on the injury report, and the Bills refuse to adjust their defensive schemes to keep him freer (getting bigger at defensive tackle, using more base 4-3 defense and less nickel, etc).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">To make things worse for Bernard, Shaq Thompson, at 6\u20192\u201d and 230 pounds with a decade of starting experience in the league, has brought the same leadership, communication, and green-dot responsibilities Bernard once owned \u2014 while adding a more physical presence against the run. At 31 years old, Thompson is no long-term answer, but I can see a world where he could be viewed as the guy in the middle for a couple of years more (if he can stay healthy on his own), especially in head coach Sean McDermott\u2019s defense.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">For now, it\u2019s good to have options at a very important position. However, going forward, Thompson\u2019s renaissance could make the Bills consider moving on from Bernard, as the league\u2019s offenses have become bigger and have relied more on the ground game recently. Time will tell.<\/p>\n<p>2. TE Dalton Kincaid: Fragility Undermining Potential<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/11\/gettyimages-2247377925.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0.0047605446063059,100,99.990478910787\" data-pswp-height=\"3500.6666666666665\" data-pswp-width=\"5251\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 16: Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills looks on prior to the NFL 2025 game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2247377925.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK &#8211; NOVEMBER 16: Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills looks on prior to the NFL 2025 game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Tight end Dalton Kincaid\u2019s 2025 season has been a tale of tantalizing talent interrupted by a fragility that\u2019s turning heads for all the wrong reasons, with multiple injuries sidelining the third-year tight end and raising red flags about his long-term reliability. After missing one game with an oblique strain early on and now three straight with a hamstring tweak suffered in Week 10 against the Miami Dolphins \u2014 compounded by a resurfacing knee issue (echoing his 2024 Grade 2 PCL sprain that cost him four contests) \u2014 Kincaid has suited up in just eight of 13 games. He\u2019s questionable for Week 14 in Cincinnati, has been limited in practice, and was spotted in a knee brace. That\u2019s a far cry from the every-down mismatch the Bills envisioned when drafting him 25th overall in 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">When healthy and schemed into clear passing downs, Kincaid remains a nightmare for linebackers and safeties. His season stats are impressive \u2014 29 receptions on 36 targets for 448 yards (15.4 YPC) and 4 touchdowns \u2014 plus a 155.6 passer rating when targeted (2nd among TEs), 80.6% catch rate, zero lost fumbles on those touches, and a long reception of 47 yards. Advanced metrics glow brighter \u2014 15.4 yards per reception (5th at TE), 6.7 yards after catch per grab (2nd), 9.5 average depth of target, and just 2 drops on 152 routes run (PFF). Versus linebackers, Kincaid\u2019s torched his opponents for 12.4 yards per target; against safeties, his 6.8 YAC average creates YAC chains that Buffalo\u2019s run-after-catch game thrives on.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Yet Kincaid\u2019s inability to anchor as a blocker caps him as a low-usage specialist, not the true TE1 the Bills need to lead the room on an every-down basis. His 58.7 PFF run-blocking grade ranks bottom quartile, with frequent whiffs in gap schemes that force him off the field on early downs \u2014 limiting him to 166 pass snaps (29th at TE) and a 29% snap share overall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">This pass-game conundrum, paired with his being injury prone (five missed games already), makes him a boom-or-bust piece: explosive when targeted (13.3% team air-yard share) but so many times absent when needed, hurting Buffalo\u2019s 12th-ranked TE production. Against the Bengals, Kincaid\u2019s health roulette could make the passing attack unstoppable if he can suit up \u2014 or he could be missed badly if he can\u2019t, with his health directly impacting the team\u2019s chances in a vital matchup.<\/p>\n<p>3. EDGE A.J. Epenesa: Pressure Drought<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249254314.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0.0034244229847289,100,99.993151154031\" data-pswp-height=\"4866.666666666667\" data-pswp-width=\"7300\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 30: A.J. Epenesa #57 of the Buffalo Bills defends against the Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images)\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/gettyimages-2249254314.jpg\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>PITTSBURGH, PA &#8211; NOVEMBER 30: A.J. Epenesa #57 of the Buffalo Bills defends against the Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game at Acrisure Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Defensive end A.J. Epenesa\u2019s pass-rush regression is alarming for a rotational piece in Buffalo\u2019s defensive line group. In Week 13, he posted zero pressures on 22 pass-rush snaps, a dismal 42.4 PFF grade, and whiffed on running back Jaylen Warren twice in run support. His season totals \u2014 22 tackles (12 solo), 2.5 sacks, 20 pressures, and one interception \u2014 pale in comparison to his 2024 breakout (6 sacks), reflected in a 60.5 overall PFF grade (74th among EDGE rushers) and an 8.2% pressure rate (down from 12.1% last year).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">With just two hits and 15 hurries, his production is middling at best, though 3 batted passes offer some silver lining. Still, a 4.1% win rate ranks in the bottom 50% league-wide. Buffalo\u2019s overall team pressure rate has dipped to 39.2% (from 43.2% early in the season), and Epenesa\u2019s struggles in sub-packages (allowing 2.3 yards per carry) have compounded issues against the run. Without defensive end Joey Bosa in the lineup and facing Joe Burrow\u2019s quick game (2.45 seconds average release time), Epenesa will need to rediscover his form to avoid being exposed further.<\/p>\n<p>RB James Cook (144 yards, 4.5 YAC\/att in Week 13; 1,124 season rush yards)WR Keon Coleman (1-yard TD grab, 78.2 PFF grade)CB Christian Benford (fumble return TD, 82.1 coverage grade)WR Joshua Palmer (knee\/ankle injuries sidelined him for Week 13, just 18 catches for 272 yards on 29 targets season-long, DNP in Wednesday\u2019s practice)WR Gabe Davis (1-11 receiving line on 2 targets vs. Steelers, stopped running his route on the INT thrown by Josh Allen)DT T.J. Sanders (41.7 overall grade, zero pressures last two games, playing a lot as a DE even with Ed Oliver out)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/siQSDD7Y3vM?si=NSfczcKJQSUbpj1T\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Leading the Charge<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Buffalo Bills are riding high into Week 14, fresh off a gritty 26-7 demolition of the Pittsburgh&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":581507,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2053],"tags":[228,85590,227,256,2296,7,6,320],"class_list":{"0":"post-581506","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cincinnati-bengals","8":"tag-bengals","9":"tag-buffalo-bills-analysis","10":"tag-cincinnati","11":"tag-cincinnati-bengals","12":"tag-cincinnatibengals","13":"tag-football","14":"tag-nfl","15":"tag-opinion"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115674754843692620","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}