{"id":598680,"date":"2025-12-14T00:33:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T00:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/598680\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T00:33:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T00:33:27","slug":"nfl-postseason-odds-after-week-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/598680\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL postseason odds after Week 14"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"play\"<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions Jared Goff on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery<\/p>\n

Jared Goff praised Detroit Lions running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery after a 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025.<\/p>\n

There’s good news and bad news regarding the Detroit Lions’<\/a> chances to make the NFL playoffs.<\/p>\n

The good news is the simplest path to the NFC playoffs for the Lions is very clear following Sunday’s results, after the Green Bay Packers<\/a> defeated the Chicago Bears<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The bad news: The Lions’ odds of making the playoffs decreased due to Sunday’s results \u2013 but only by a little bit.<\/p>\n

The Lions are coming off a 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys<\/a> on Thursday, a game that essentially knocked the Cowboys from playoff contention (7% to make it), and kept the Lions in the heat of the race. Had they lost, the Lions chances of making the playoffs would have gone down to 19% per NFL Next Gen Stats. Instead, they rose to 54%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After Sunday’s games, however, the Lions’ chances fell to 53% according to Next Gen Stats<\/a>, and fell to 39% according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator<\/a> (down from 45% after the Thursday win).<\/p>\n

The reason why Detroit’s playoff odds fell likely had nothing to do with the outcome of the Packers-Bears game, however, even if that NFC North tussle was the weekend’s most impactful game for the Lions.<\/p>\n

NFC playoff standings<\/p>\n

Only the top seven teams make the playoffs in each conference. Here are the NFC standings entering Monday night of Week 14, with playoff odds<\/a> from The Athletic:<\/p>\n

Rams: 10-3, 99%Packers: 9-3-1, 95%Eagles<\/a>: 8-4, 96%Bucs: 7-6, 70%Seahawks: 10-3, 98%49ers: 9-4, 94%Bears: 9-4, 70%*Lions: 8-5, 39%*Panthers: 7-6, 31%*Cowboys: 6-6-1, 7%<\/p>\n

*Currently out of the playoffs<\/p>\n

As we mapped out earlier<\/a>, the Lions were hoping for wins from the Atlanta Falcons against the Seattle Seahawks<\/a>, the Arizona Cardinals<\/a> against the Los Angeles Rams<\/a> and the New Orleans Saints<\/a> against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Only one of those three outcomes happened (the Saints beating the Buccaneers, the least meaningful since one of Tampa Bay or Carolina will win the NFC South), meaning the Rams and Seahawks both strengthened their playoff odds.<\/p>\n

But let’s get back to the good news.<\/p>\n

Lions odds to win NFC North<\/p>\n

By beating the Bears, the Packers are now in first place in the NFC North and have the best chance of winning the division at 68%, according to The Athletic’s model<\/a>. That’s advantageous for the Lions since Detroit does not hold a head-to-head tiebreaker against Green Bay, but would get one against the Bears should the Lions win in Chicago in Week 18.<\/p>\n

Odds to win the NFC North after Week 14:<\/p>\n

Packers: 68%Bears: 26%Lions: 6%Vikings: <1%<\/p>\n

If the Lions win their final four games of the regular season, they will make the playoffs at 12-5 \u2013 likely as the No. 7 seed, which could set up a third game against the Packers in the wild-card round at Lambeau Field. The Lions would also need Green Bay to lose twice more in order for the Lions to win the division.<\/p>\n

What if Lions lose once?<\/p>\n

There are still paths for the Lions to make the playoffs even if they don’t win out and instead go 11-6, however, most involve finishing with an equal (or better) record than the Bears while also holding the tiebreaker, which would require a win in Chicago in the final week.<\/p>\n

There is also a very small chance the Lions could lose one game and still get in via a wild-card tiebreaker against the Rams, but that would require Los Angeles to lose at least three games, including to the Lions this Sunday on the road against the Rams.<\/p>\n

The Lions could also potentially hop the Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers for a wild-card spot depending on how the rest of the NFC West shakes out, but it would also require those teams to collapse down the stretch.<\/p>\n

If the Lions lose any of their final four regular-season games, however, their playoff odds will face a dramatic fall. That makes essentially every contest going forward a must-win game, even if that’s not mathematically the case right now.<\/p>\n

Lions schedule: 4 games left<\/p>\n

Here’s the Lions’ schedule from Week 15-18 to end the 2025 NFL regular season:<\/p>\n

Week 15, Sunday, Dec. 14:\u00a0at\u00a0Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 16,\u00a0Sunday,\u00a0Dec. 21:\u00a0vs.\u00a0Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.Week 17,\u00a0Thursday,\u00a0Dec. 25:\u00a0at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix.Week 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4:\u00a0at\u00a0Chicago Bears<\/a>, TBD.Bears schedule: 4 games leftWeek 15, Sunday, Dec. 14: vs Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 16, Saturday, Dec. 20: vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 17, Sunday, Dec. 28: at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.Week 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4:\u00a0vs\u00a0Detroit Lions<\/a>, TBD.Packers schedule: 4 games leftWeek 15, Sunday, Dec. 14: at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.Week 16, Saturday, Dec. 20: at Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 17, Saturday\/Sunday, Dec. 27\/28: vs Baltimore Ravens, TBDWeek 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: at Minnesota Vikings, TBD.49ers schedule: 4 games leftWeek 15, Sunday, Dec. 14: vs Tennessee Titans, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 16, Monday, Dec. 22: at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.Week 17, Sunday, Dec. 28: vs Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.Week 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: vs Seattle Seahawks, TBD.Rams schedule: 4 games leftWeek 15, Sunday, Dec. 14: vs Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.Week 16, Thursday, Dec. 18: at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video, .Week 17, Monday, Dec. 29: at Atlanta Falcons, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.Week 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: vs Arizona Cardinals, TBD.Seahawks schedule: 4 games leftWeek 15, Sunday, Dec. 14: vs Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS).Week 16, Thursday, Dec. 18: vs Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).Week 17, Saturday\/Sunday, Dec. 27\/28: at Carolina Panthers<\/a>, TBD.Week 18, Saturday\/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: at San Francisco 49ers, TBD.<\/p>\n

Need to catch up on the news during your lunch break?\u00a0Sign up for our Sports Briefing newsletter<\/a>\u00a0to get daily summaries of Detroit sports!<\/p>\n

You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Detroit Lions Jared Goff on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery Jared Goff praised Detroit Lions running backs Jahmyr…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":598681,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[247,265,240,375,390,210,374,1327,235,260,861,874,692,391,324,862,146,113,25,864,3203,7,1134,27,345,20842,147,3198,239,58,5264,248,826,267,246,206,55,88,6,35196,84,676,245,264,428,236,3197,242,109,424,397,818,238,237,261,817,829,9,266,819,3199,691,695,776],"class_list":{"0":"post-598680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-american","9":"tag-american-football","10":"tag-angeles","11":"tag-arizona","12":"tag-arizona-cardinals","13":"tag-bay","14":"tag-bears","15":"tag-cardinals","16":"tag-carolina","17":"tag-carolina-panthers","18":"tag-cbs","19":"tag-cbs-corp","20":"tag-chicago","21":"tag-chicago-bears","22":"tag-conference","23":"tag-corp","24":"tag-detroit","25":"tag-detroit-lions","26":"tag-eagles","27":"tag-exclude","28":"tag-exclude-from-paywall-logic-testing","29":"tag-football","30":"tag-from","31":"tag-green","32":"tag-green-bay-packers","33":"tag-hub","34":"tag-lions","35":"tag-logic","36":"tag-los","37":"tag-los-angeles-rams","38":"tag-mi","39":"tag-national","40":"tag-national-football-conference","41":"tag-national-sports","42":"tag-neutral","43":"tag-new","44":"tag-new-orleans-saints","45":"tag-news","46":"tag-nfl","47":"tag-nfl-hub","48":"tag-nfl-playoffs","49":"tag-orleans","50":"tag-overall","51":"tag-overall-neutral","52":"tag-packers","53":"tag-panthers","54":"tag-paywall","55":"tag-philadelphia","56":"tag-philadelphia-eagles","57":"tag-rams","58":"tag-saints","59":"tag-scores","60":"tag-seahawks","61":"tag-seattle","62":"tag-seattle-seahawks","63":"tag-sport","64":"tag-sport-scores-u0026-statistics","65":"tag-sports","66":"tag-sports-news","67":"tag-statistics","68":"tag-testing","69":"tag-trending","70":"tag-trending-news","71":"tag-u0026"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}