I whipped up a bit of stir in the Patriots media bubble last week.<\/p>\n
Although I was confident New England could win 10 games before pre-schedule release, I wouldn\u2019t have been stunned by nine. But following the announcement, I saw as many as 13 winnable matchups.<\/p>\n
The idea of 13 wins for a rebuilding team didn\u2019t feel realistic, and I laid out my usual caveats during our Patriots Daily live stream<\/a>. Still, it was a wild thing to see on my co-host Mike Kadlick\u2019s timeline<\/a>, and I was understandably ripped for the hot take.<\/p>\n Slightly misconstrued or not, I should\u2019ve known better! And I\u2019m not in the hot takez business, so I\u2019m not predicting 13 wins. Still, with the spread set at 8.5, I am technically reaching.<\/p>\n I can\u2019t stress enough that predictions in May mean as much as predictions in August: absolutely nothing. But I stand by my thought that, based on what we know, the Patriots winning nine or fewer games would be a disappointment.<\/p>\n To exceed expectations, teams need talent in key roles, and of course, a little bit of luck. New England still lacks an elite receiver and edge defender, but they check enough boxes to expect big change in 2025.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s why I believe the Patriots will put together their best season since 2021.<\/p>\n AN EASY SCHEDULE <\/p>\n The Patriots will face three of the league\u2019s best quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and two matchups against reigning MVP Josh Allen. However, outside of those juggernauts, New England\u2019s schedule is full of unproven teams. And while strength of schedule numbers can be deceiving, the Patriots\u2019 having the third-easiest lineup sounds about right.<\/p>\n This season\u2019s easiest strength of schedules based on last season\u2019s records: pic.twitter.com\/6LrlqRuD81<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Only four of the Patriots\u2019 opponents made last year\u2019s postseason. New England won\u2019t face a playoff team until going to Buffalo in Week 5, and won\u2019t again until visiting Tampa Bay in Week 10.<\/p>\n Non-playoff teams like the Raiders, Panthers, and Falcons could certainly surprie, but the Patriots are favored in 11 games.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to fault Vegas for favoring Miami in Week 3. The Dolphins have dominated at home since 2019, with Tua Tagovailoa still undefeated New England. But a September trip could also mean a less jarring climate change, and the Patriots not beating themselves for a change should be the difference-maker.<\/p>\n While New England winning every game in which they\u2019re favored might be a reach, so is the team losing to all of their good opponents. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins have battled injury over the years, and the Buccaneers are tested but beatable. The Patriots have also played the Bills tight the past two seasons, and they\u2019ll be coming off a bye in Week 15 while Buffalo will have just faced the Bengals.<\/p>\n Between an easy strength of schedule and a very favorable schedule, there won\u2019t be many excuses for New England in 2025. If their top passer takes the second-year jump most expect, they won\u2019t need any.<\/p>\n A POTENTIAL JUMP FROM DRAKE <\/p>\n Maye is still a relative unknown, but he blue chip showed franchise quarterback potential.<\/p>\n Silly 2-minute from Drake Maye<\/p>\n 1. Explosive gain on his signature bow concept \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n After five weeks of ineptitude, New England ranked 16th in dropback success rate after Maye took the reins. They were even better from Week 10 on, climbing to 10th.<\/p>\n Maye raised the offense\u2019s subterranean floor with his rare talent, impressive poise, and advanced IQ. After being named a starter, he led the NFL in scramble yards and ranked top 10 in adjusted completion rate under pressure.<\/p>\n Josh McDaniels on Drake Maye: <\/p>\n “I don\u2019t think he’s as big as Josh [Allen] is, but guys like that, that have those kind of attributes, you can use them to run the football, too\u2026<\/p>\n I\u2019m interested to see when he plays, if he becomes a little bit more of a dual-threat guy, or if\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/6ibgJL3JPo<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/a4DE6ZWQat<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) January 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Maye still lacks a top-tier arsenal, but he shouldn\u2019t have to carry the offense like he did in year one.<\/p>\n Gritty veterans Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins should stabilize the pass game alongside McDaniels veterans Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper. Diggs was also producing at an elite level before suffering his knee injury, and Hollins was a starter for the Bills last season. DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson are also a versatile young trio.<\/p>\n Maye has to remove down turnovers and unnecessary sacks from his game, but the team\u2019s new leadership should go a long way in improving those areas.<\/p>\n THE MIKE VRABEL EFFECT <\/p>\n After being an underdog in every 2024 matchup, the Patriots are favored in a whopping 11 games this season. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the Vrabel effect.<\/p>\n The head coach touched on three team goals during his introductory presser. He wants New England to take advantage of bad football, minimize mistakes, and focus on the little things. These aren\u2019t novel concepts, but Vrabel\u2019s proven he can both execute and coach them at a high-level.<\/p>\n As a player, Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a co-founder of\u00a0 \u201cThe Patriot Way\u201d. He was a hallmark of versatility, playing every linebacker spot and catching 12 touchdowns after starting his career on special teams.<\/p>\n As a coach, Tennessee made the playoffs in three of his six seasons. He was also named Coach of the Year in 2021 after leading a 12-5 campaign with a record 91 players on injuries reserve. His Titans were known for dragging teams into the mud and punching above their weight, notably ending Tom Brady\u2019s Patriots career with a home loss in Vrabel\u2019s first playoff appearance.<\/p>\n Part of his success stems from a uniquely hands-on approach, which has made an impression on Patriots players early in his tenure.<\/p>\n Mike Vrabel working 1-on-1 with DT Joshua Farmer during a drill pic.twitter.com\/orFpOCG8XQ<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) May 9, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cI love that, because it shows you how much he cares about the rookies and their development \u2013 everybody, not just the drafted guys,\u201d said rookie center Jared Wilson. \u201cAnd he\u2019s hands-on with everything. It\u2019s great to see him out there actually running around with us.\u201d<\/p>\n Former Patriot and Titan Logan Ryan was also \u201cblown away\u201d by Vravel\u2019s intelligence<\/a>, noting the strategic advantage the coach provides in critical moments.<\/p>\n One of the most iconic moments of Vrabel\u2019s coaching career in Tennessee. <\/p>\n \u2026Sticking it to Belichick with a taste of his own medicine and ending Brady in NE. #NFL<\/a> #Titans<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/VPthWJoW4H<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/04hVyKDKJf<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor S Hurst (@TitansMan97) February 6, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cYeah, he beat Bill at his own game with the punt rule. He used it against Bill to ice a game,\u201d Ryan recalled from the 2020 AFC Wild Card game. \u201cAnd he beat a lot of coaches at the game like that. Stuff you guys didn\u2019t see while I was there\u2026 He gives you a true advantage on the sideline.\u201d<\/p>\n Philosophical differences, poor offense, and personnel hits led to the Titans moving on in 2023, but that\u2019s beginning to look like a blessing in disguise for Vrabel and the Patriots.<\/p>\n The head coach is finally empowered, not inhibited, by his quarterback. The Patriots\u2019 roster also improved filled major holes in free agency before unanimously acing the draft.<\/p>\n Outside of Tennessee\u2019s roster, the biggest question mark surrounding Vrabel was his taste in offensive coordinators, which soured on Titans fans late in his tenure. Fortunately for the Patriots, that\u2019s spot appears to be filled for the foreseeable future\u2014and possibly forever?<\/p>\n JOSH McDANIELS\u2019 RETURN <\/p>\n McDaniels is an elite coordinator\/play-caller who can mentor any offensive position, and if he goes the Steve Spanguolo route, Maye could have the same coordinator for his entire career.<\/p>\n That should be a terrifying thought for NFL defenses, who\u2019s had more success away from Brady than he gets credit for. The six-time Super Bowl champion helped rookie Mac Jones make the Pro Bowl nod, thrived with an inexperienced Matt Cassel (albeit on a stacked offense), and produced an elite option run game with the husk of Cam Newton. McDaniels also orchestrated Davante Adams\u2019 second-best season with Derek Carr and Jarrett Stidham throwing passes.<\/p>\n There are real concerns surrounding the Patriots\u2019 offensive line. Many were shocked to see career backup Wes Schweitzer as the top left guard in team photos; Will Campbell and Garrett Bradbury might not hold up on islands against elite rushers; and Morgan Moses is a quality pass protector and people-mover, but the 34-year-old may struggle to stay on the field.<\/p>\n This could be a rocky recipe for a green coordinator, but no one has proven more adaptable than McDaniels. The guru works with multiple positions, excels at covering blemishes, and consistently puts players in positions to succeed. And between McDaniels, Vrabel, line coach Doug Marrone, and his assistant coaches, there will be several options for players to get extra attention.<\/p>\n Doug Marrone putting LT Will Campbell and G Jack Conley through drills while Josh McDaniels watches on pic.twitter.com\/yz4irrzaML<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) May 9, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n McDaniels may be a miracle worker, but his offense still isn\u2019t putting up 30 a game anytime soon. But if Terrell Williams lives up to his reputation, they won\u2019t have to.<\/p>\n ELITE PASS RUSH POTENTIAL <\/p>\n Vrabel has stressed the importance of protecting the quarterback, but he\u2019s been just as adamant about affecting opposing passers.<\/p>\n That must\u2019ve been music to the ears of Christian Barmore and Keion White, who\u2019ve carried the pass rush with minimal help since Matt Judon\u2019s last snap. They\u2019ve proven to be elite interior rushers with the potential for more, but outside factors have slowed their growth.<\/p>\n The first step in shoring up the Patriots\u2019 front was adding defensive coordinator Terrell Williams. One of the league\u2019s premier defensive line coaches, Williams led Tennessee\u2019s trenches throughout Vrabel\u2019s time as head coach. He\u2019s mentored several All Pros and Pro Bowlers, including Jeffery Simmons, Cameron Wake, and, briefly, Aidan Hutchinson.<\/p>\n Williams served as the Lions\u2019 run game coordinator\/defensive line coach last season, earning heavy praise from head coach Dan Campbell<\/a>. He led a top defensive front despite significant personnel losses, including Hutchinson, who also had great things to say about the coach<\/a>.<\/p>\n New England\u2019s front office gave Williams plenty to work with this offseason, headlining their free agent class with reigning Super Bowl champion Milton Williams. The elite pass rusher broke out last season, but he was known as a top-notch run-stopper before 2024.<\/p>\n What a #Patriots<\/a> DL led by Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, and Keon White is capable of pic.twitter.com\/ZYUjb4wrhR<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) May 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Harold Landry\u2019s best days are likely behind him, but he\u2019s a great run defender and opportunistic rusher. Fellow edge K\u2019Lavon Chaisson also finished his Raiders career strong.<\/p>\n The rookie class could feature as many as three defensive line steals. Bradyn Swinson should be a day-one situational rusher who could start toward the end of his rookie deal.<\/p>\n LSU EDGE Bradyn Swinson is going to outperform several of the EDGE rushers taken before him.<\/p>\n The South Carolina game was one of my favorite tapes of any prospect in the class.<\/p>\n High-side finesse rushes, converting speed to power, looping finishes. It was an absolute bloodbath. pic.twitter.com\/EPQ3XWy3z4<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Derrick (@Steelers_DB) April 21, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Joshua Farmer is a fierce run defender<\/a> with every-down upside, and undrafted edge Elijah Ponder is also a potential gem<\/a>.<\/p>\n For the first time in years, the Patriots can send waves of capable pass rushers. That depth, paired with mentorship from Vrabel, Williams, and longtime assistant Clint McMillan, has the makings of a top-tier unit and anchor of the defense.<\/p>\n MORE PLAYMAKERS ON DEFENSE <\/p>\n Disruptive fronts create turnover opportunities, which could mean another All Pro nod for Christian Gonzalez. But for the first time in years, New England has several consistent playmakers on the backend.<\/p>\n Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Christian Elliss, and Jahlani Tavai have flashed possession-stealing instincts, but they\u2019ve been slowed by injury and inconsistency. This left Gonzalez as the defense\u2019s only difference-maker, but offseason additions should raise the unit\u2019s floor and ceiling.<\/p>\n New faces Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis deflected a lot of passes last season, and both projects as an impactful starter.<\/p>\n Robert Spillane (#41) making plays on the ball pic.twitter.com\/abNN8BbiiT<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) March 11, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Rookie Craig Woodson proved to be a versatile leader in Cal\u2019s secondary, and he could at least see significant snaps as a rookie.<\/p>\n Marcus Jones has struggled against better slots, and most of the team\u2019s veteran safeties are coming off injury, but the back end lacks glaring weak spots. Jack Gibbens also told Patriots.com<\/a> the linebackers are ahead of schedule, which is a far cry from last year\u2019s group.<\/p>\n WRAP UP <\/p>\n Like any rebuilding team, New England will take time to gel, but this ain\u2019t your kid nephew\u2019s Patriots.<\/p>\n Look no further than the Commanders, who improved by eight games after adding proven difference-makers ahead of 2024. A stale offensive scheme and trench woes grounded last year\u2019s Texans\u2019, but their 2023 success followed a similar blueprint. In both of these meteoric rises, fortunes quickly changed when quality players met equipped leadership.<\/p>\n The Patriots have a potential great quarterback, a univerally-respected head coach, the league\u2019s most accomplushed offensive coorfinator, a pass rush with big-time upside, and at least one shutdown corner.<\/p>\n Most teams with a soft schedule and that makeup are penciled in for the playoffs. Why not the Patriots?<\/p>\n
2. Passes midfield and preserves time hitting a quick out
3. Exploits a gap in the pocket for an explosive scramble
4. Draws a defender offsides and gives Pop a chance to make a ridiculous catch pic.twitter.com\/OwX0UFD8d9<\/a><\/p>\n