{"id":63498,"date":"2025-05-19T23:26:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T23:26:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/63498\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T23:26:23","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T23:26:23","slug":"indianapolis-colts-week-10-offensive-rankings-and-analysis-one-drive-wonders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/63498\/","title":{"rendered":"Indianapolis Colts Week 10 Offensive Rankings and Analysis: One drive wonders"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thanks to Pro Football Focus<\/a>, Pro Football Reference<\/a>, NFL.com<\/a> and the nflFastR project<\/a> for being awesome sources of weekly data.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve spent the offseason enhancing my data and created a new graph I\u2019m excited about. To test it out, I\u2019m comparing Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones.<\/p>\n

The graph offers a focused look at quarterback efficiency\u2014one of the best ways to evaluate performance and project future success. Of course, as I\u2019ve been told once or twice, no single stat tells the full story\u2014which is why I use a range of metrics to paint a more complete picture.<\/p>\n

The graph presents a progression of efficiency metrics, starting with simple measures and gradually incorporating more elements of quarterback play, ending with a comprehensive final stat. It\u2019s similar to what I do in my weekly QB dashboards, but with a sharper focus and a few new measures to fill in some gaps.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll take it step by step. <\/p>\n

PASSING DEPTH<\/p>\n

This is the graph with just the beginning and ending numbers for Anthony Richardson\u2019s 15 career starts.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The ending metric is overall EPA efficiency. I\u2019ve typically used EPA per dropback, but with the rise of running quarterbacks, most analysts now include designed QB runs \u2014 shifting the metric to EPA per play (EPA\/p). I could write a thousand words on why designed runs shouldn\u2019t be part of QB stats, but it\u2019s not a hill I\u2019m willing to die on. Since everyone else is including them, fine\u2014I\u2019ll throw them in too (although I really shouldn\u2019t). Unfortunately, Richardson ranks 25th out of 32 by that measure. <\/p>\n

My starting metric is air yards per completion on passes under 20 yards. I know that\u2019s an obscure thing to measure, but the desire is to capture passing depth without explosive plays. Richardson\u2019s fourth-ranked depth shows he isn\u2019t simply checking the ball down. Despite this, he has still struggled to consistently translate other aspects of his play into overall value. <\/p>\n

As I add more stats, the blue line beomes an efficiency curve that highlights the underlying causes of those struggles and explains why he\u2019s been one of the league\u2019s least efficient quarterbacks thus far in his career. To that end, I\u2019ll now layer on the remaining air yards from his deep completions.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Richardson gets 9.5% of his completions on passes of 20+ yards, the fifth-highest rate among all quarterbacks. That contributes to a league highest 7.7 air yards per completion (ay\/c), meaning no one throws deeper completions.<\/p>\n

Next, I\u2019ll add the complement to air yards\u2014 yards after the catch (yac). <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Not only does Richardson throw deep on his completions, but he also benefits from the second-highest yards after the catch, leading to the most yards per completion (yd\/c) in the league.<\/p>\n

COMPLETION RATE<\/p>\n

For a graph meant to measure a drop in efficiency, it looks like I\u2019m going in the wrong direction. Let\u2019s fix that by adding incompletions\u2014you can probably guess where this is headed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ooph. Richardson is dead last in completion rate. I even adjusted it by removing the bias of drops and throwaways (ac%) \u2014 still dead last. Given the depth of his throws, a lower completion rate is expected, but even with that context, the number is far too low. I know this because he also ranks dead last in \u2018completion percentage over expected\u2019, though that stat isn\u2019t shown here.<\/p>\n

Multiplying his 57.0% adjusted completion rate by 13.7 yards per completion yields 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt (aypa), plunging him to 21st in the rankings. Keep in mind, this metric excludes drops\u2014so for those who argue his numbers would look fine without dropped passes, think again.<\/p>\n

His trouble completing passes explains much of his efficiency decline, but not all of it. To account for the remaining incompletions, let\u2019s now factor in both drops and throwaways.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Richardson faced the second-highest drop rate (drp%) and had an average throwaway rate (ta%). These two factors somewhat offset each other, bringing his rank down to 23rd in yards per attempt (ypa). <\/p>\n

RUNNING ABILITY<\/p>\n

Up to this point, I\u2019ve accounted for his arm, but not his legs. Next, I\u2019ll incorporate sacks and scrambles.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

His ability to avoid sacks (sck%) boosts his efficiency, which is reflected in his 21st-ranked net yards per attempt (ny\/a). He also has a high scramble rate (scr%), which typically lowers efficiency\u2014but since he gains above-average yardage on his scrambles (a stat not shown here), he maintains a 21st-place rank in net yards per dropback (ny\/d).<\/p>\n

At this stage, I factor in designed runs. Woohoo!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

AR led QBs in carry rate (car%) and ranked second in yards per carry (not shown), which pushes him up one spot to 20th in net yards per play (ny\/p).<\/p>\n

NON-YARDAGE EVENTS<\/p>\n

So far, I\u2019ve accounted for every type of play a quarterback is involved in, yet I still haven\u2019t fully explained why he ranks just 25th in efficiency. That\u2019s because events in football carry more value than raw yardage alone. This hasn\u2019t been factored in yet, so the next step is to layer in first downs and touchdowns using standard \u2018yardage equivalents\u2019.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

When I add in the impact of first downs, Richardson drops to 21st in adjusted net yards per play (any\/p), and his roughly average touchdown rate does nothing to change that.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s just one key metric left: turnovers. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Richardson has the second-highest turnover rate of any quarterback over the past two years. When factoring in the yardage-equivalent impact of those plays, he drops to 24th in the final version of adjusted net yards per play (any\/p).<\/p>\n

Up to this point, all of these metrics have been measured in terms of yards\u2014an imperfect proxy for value. So, I will take one more step and convert everything to a far better value measure \u2014 Expected Points Added (EPA). This yields his final ranking of 25th in EPA per play (epa\/p).<\/p>\n

Well, almost final. I\u2019ve recently added the ability to adjust EPA for opponent defenses in my models. While this adjustment gives Richardson a modest two-percentile boost in adjusted EPA per play (adj\/p), it actually causes him to drop one spot to 26th. <\/p>\n

CONCLUSION<\/p>\n

The efficiency curve highlights Richardson\u2019s key weaknesses: completions, getting first downs, and turnovers. At the same time, his strengths are just as clear: explosive passing ability, efficient running, and good decision making using scrambles and throwaways to avoid sacks.<\/p>\n

Now that we\u2019ve broken down the chart and what it reveals about Anthony Richardson, let\u2019s apply the same analysis to Daniel Jones. Since Jones missed most of the 2023 season due to injury, I\u2019ve expanded the dataset to include his 2022 performance\u2014which remains, by far, his best year.<\/p>\n

\nmouseover definitions: ay<,
\ndp%,
\nay\/c,
\nyac,
\nyd\/c,
\nac%,
\naypa,
\ndrp%,
\naypa,
\nta%,
\nypa,
\nsck%,
\nny\/a,
\nscr%,
\nny\/d,
\ncar%,
\nny\/p,
\n1st%,
\nany\/p,
\ntd%,
\nany\/p,
\nto%,
\nany\/p,
\nepa\/p,
\nadj\/p\n<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Although Jones ends up in roughly the same spot as Richardson, he gets there by a very different path. He\u2019s much better in terms of accuracy, moving the chains, and ball security. However, he\u2019s worse at generating explosive plays, scoring touchdowns, and he takes far too many sacks for being as mobile as he is. <\/p>\n

Honestly, I have no idea why the Giants were willing to pay Jones $160 million, and I\u2019m not sure why the Colts want to chip in another $14.5 million. It\u2019s still far too early to know if Richardson can improve, but I\u2019m pretty confident Jones can\u2019t. I hope he\u2019s a good mentor, because I just don\u2019t see a world where the Colts make the playoffs with Jones under center.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Thanks to Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63499,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2059],"tags":[90,357,1205,2005,11764,816,7,29,2004,392,7711,3562,20123,2381,6,835,4773,20122,1127,3731,3775,2410,1549,20121],"class_list":{"0":"post-63498","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-indianapolis-colts","8":"tag-analysis","9":"tag-and","10":"tag-blue","11":"tag-colts","12":"tag-drive","13":"tag-events","14":"tag-football","15":"tag-front-page","16":"tag-indianapolis","17":"tag-indianapolis-colts","18":"tag-indianapolis-colts-roster","19":"tag-indianapolis-colts-news","20":"tag-indianapolis-colts-scores-results","21":"tag-indianapoliscolts","22":"tag-nfl","23":"tag-nfl-news","24":"tag-nfl-analysis-play-breakdowns","25":"tag-nflgeneral","26":"tag-offensive","27":"tag-one","28":"tag-rankings","29":"tag-stampede","30":"tag-week","31":"tag-wonders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/114537089393396997","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63498\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}