It may be Week 18, but there\u2019s plenty of meat left on the bones of the 2025 season. Two playoff spots are on the line, four division titles are still open, both byes are up for grabs and nearly every playoff team can still help or hurt their first-round draw.<\/p>\n
Before we preview the relevant games, check out our updated look at the playoff picture.<\/p>\n
On both sides of the bracket, six teams have clinched playoff berths. There are two division-winners still to be decided to fill out the remaining playoff spots: the AFC North and NFC South.<\/p>\n
Denver currently holds the AFC\u2019s top seed, but both New England and Jacksonville have a chance to steal it. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are playing for the final playoff spot.<\/p>\n
In the NFC, the winner of Seattle-San Francisco will claim the NFC West and the No. 1 seed. Tampa Bay and Carolina are fighting for the last seat on the bus, and everybody but them and Green Bay is playing for seeding.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcfa What To Watch \ud83d\udcfa<\/p>\n
With that in mind, here are the games to keep an eye on this week, stacked from most to least consequential.<\/p>\n
Win or go home<\/p>\n
Panthers at Buccaneers<\/p>\n
Carolina leans heavily on zone coverage to protect against its inability to pressure quarterbacks, two facts that should favor Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield is excellent with time and has picked apart zone for much of the season, throwing nine touchdowns and one pick against it.<\/p>\n
But he\u2019s fading, losing 27 points off his passer rating since Week 11. His 72.6 over the last seven games \u2014 which included a stretch of four sub-200-yard performances in a row \u2014 is worse than every passer but Shedeur Sanders and Brady Cook. The Bucs haven\u2019t won a game in a month, and Mayfield\u2019s last five picks have come when he was fooled by zone coverage.<\/p>\n
For all of Carolina\u2019s flaws, the moment finds the Panthers far more lively and pugnacious than their NFC South counterparts. They have alternated wins and losses since Week 8, countering ugly defeats with victories against the NFC\u2019s best. They run well, and Bryce Young\u2019s shortcomings are not new. More important to Week 18, the Panthers play with the freedom of a team that knows its limitations and channels that into a gladiatorial approach to each game: playing win-or-die football unclouded by future concerns.<\/p>\n
Sitting at the final table, Carolina is playing with money they found lying on the ground outside the casino, while Tampa is trying desperately to win back the mortgage payment. These aren\u2019t serious playoff teams, but Week 18 has the feel of importance, given the respective states of the franchises. A win for either team can be framed as portentous of a brighter future. A loss feels like a referendum on their limitations, turning \u201clook how far we came\u201d into \u201clook how far we have to go.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ravens at Steelers<\/p>\n
Do we have to? This division race matters to exactly two groups of people, so can we skip the faux drama of it all and flip a coin or something?<\/p>\n
Watching the fourth-down decisions in Week 17, it felt like Mike Tomlin was engineering this exact scenario. Winning the division at home, on Sunday Night Football against their biggest rival, plays way better than doing it on a cold and windy day in Cleveland, and splashy public victories are the primary export of declining administrations.<\/p>\n
The Ravens are road favorites, however, meaning this could be the biggest, loudest letdown in a long string of them for Steelers fans.<\/p>\n
Derrick Henry has risen from his slumber, running for 444 yards and six touchdowns in the last three games and increasing his carries and yardage each time. He\u2019s averaging 6.8 yards per run over that stretch, and 70 percent of his yards were after contact. After forcing just 18 missed tackles through Week 13, he\u2019s picked up 22 in the last four games, beginning with a season-high eight against the Steelers in Week 14.<\/p>\n
The Ravens are the better team on paper, especially when Henry is in All-Pro form, and Lamar Jackson, even with his running limitations, is a far more dynamic threat than Aaron Rodgers under center.<\/p>\n
But neither of these teams is doing much in January. This game will be dressed up as the dramatic final showdown in the battle for the AFC North; the latest thread woven into the quilt of a historic rivalry. In reality, the focus is on Tomlin. Better than .500 or not, he\u2019s under review, and the profile of this game is high enough that a win could save his job, and a loss could bring about its end.<\/p>\n
No. 1 on the line<\/p>\n
Seahawks at 49ers<\/p>\n
San Francisco is winning by embracing the chaos, leaning on Brock Purdy to make plays out of structure while praying the defense holds back the enemy long enough to escape.\u00a0The 49ers lack any real offensive-line push, which means pocket integrity isn\u2019t a thing and running the ball is a chore. These problems are mitigated by having Christian McCaffrey in the backfield and Purdy\u2019s otherworldly (of late) abilities as an improviser, but all of it feels uncomfortably fragile.<\/p>\n
Their inability to dictate the terms of the ground game (on either side of the ball) and their rash of defensive injuries prevent them from establishing a safe base of operation. They are guerrilla fighters whose success is predicated on McCaffrey remaining healthy and Mr. Irrelevant staying perfect under duress.<\/p>\n
But San Francisco has held together for six straight wins, and the rematch with Seattle comes with the NFC\u2019s top seed attached as the prize. The first meeting in Week 1 was a rock fight, with a 17-13 score that indicates how different the two teams were then. San Francisco has scored 30 or more points in five of its last eight contests, and Seattle is the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.4 points per game.<\/p>\n
The Seahawks\u2019 pass protection has improved with the return of center Jalen Sundell, and while Sam Darnold is not the gunslinger he was in the first half of the season, he\u2019s still among the best deep ball passers in the league, especially off play-action. San Francisco is particularly vulnerable to the play-action deep ball, posting bottom-10 numbers in EPA per pass and allowing the fourth-most touchdowns on those throws.<\/p>\n
On paper, the Seahawks\u2019 defense is perfectly built to undo the Niners. They pressure quarterbacks nearly 40 percent of the time, have a top-three sack rate when blitzing, allow the lowest yards per carry in the NFL and aren\u2019t particularly vulnerable to passes out of the backfield.<\/p>\n
The Seahawks are a machine built to operate according to the laws of the football universe, and the Niners are built to bend those rules to a breaking point. The NFC\u2019s top spot will be determined by which team dictates the terms of engagement.<\/p>\n
Chargers at Broncos<\/p>\n
If the Broncos win, as they have every home game but one, they earn a bye. If they lose, they\u2019re the two seed unless the Patriots and Jaguars follow suit.<\/p>\n
Denver\u2019s pass rush is still terrifying, bringing down passers at the highest rate of any team in the last 30 years, but the overall pass defense has softened somewhat in recent weeks. Over the first 10 weeks, the Broncos allowed 179.5 yards and less than a touchdown per game through the air. Until playing what\u2019s left of Kansas City last week, Denver allowed 245.2 yards and nearly two touchdowns a game from Week 11 on.<\/p>\n
Injuries to every part of the Chargers\u2019 passing game have reduced its potency, but Justin Herbert can still punish mistakes, and L.A.\u2019s defense has surrendered more than 20 points just once since Week 8. Still, all the problems that Houston\u2019s defense created for L.A. will be matched or exceeded by Denver\u2019s, and the Broncos will bring their full force to bear with a chance to clinch the bye at home.<\/p>\n
A Chargers loss locks them into the seven seed, and the best they can do is fifth. Is there any sense in risking their fragile roster for a modest reward?<\/p>\n
Dolphins at Patriots\u00a0<\/p>\n
The worst New England can do is the three seed, which is a victory in and of itself, given their status last season. A win means they either get the first-round bye (if Denver loses) or the two seed (if Denver wins).<\/p>\n
Miami doesn\u2019t present a challenge to the Patriots in any real sense, limited by a rookie quarterback, injured wideouts and a defense that, while improved after leaning into zone coverage, isn\u2019t capable of stopping New England\u2019s polished attack. They are headed into a rebuild, and ownership has likely already decided on Mike McDaniel\u2019s tenure one way or another.<\/p>\n
This should be an easy win for the Pats at home, with most of the drama coming from the Broncos-Chargers game happening simultaneously.<\/p>\n
Titans at Jaguars<\/p>\n
The Jaguars not only have the luxury of playing the Titans in the final week, but they get to watch the other AFC action from the comfort of home, thanks to an earlier kickoff.<\/p>\n
A win over Tennessee means Jacksonville could still get the bye if both the Pats and Broncos lose, but the more likely outcome is they finish third (which happens if either team wins). Liam Coen\u2019s first season at the wheel was an unmitigated success, and given that the Jaguars are playing their best ball of the season, the playoffs are more than just a happy accident.<\/p>\n
Sorting out the rest<\/p>\n
Cardinals at Rams<\/p>\n
If the Rams win, they\u2019ll get the No. 5 seed if the Seahawks take the division, No. 6 if the Niners do. A loss means they are locked into sixth. A loss doesn\u2019t help the Cardinals\u2019 draft slot by itself, so this one is really meaningless for Arizona.<\/p>\n
Lions at Bears<\/p>\n
Chicago gets the second seed with a win or an Eagles loss, which they\u2019d very much prefer over slipping to third. At No. 2, they\u2019d host the Packers, who are without Micah Parsons and have a quarterback coming off a significant concussion. Alternatively, they\u2019d play a member of the NFC West. Losing in the playoffs to Green Bay may sting more, but drawing a hobbled Packers team provides better odds at escaping the first round.<\/p>\n
Commanders at Eagles<\/p>\n
Philadelphia would also much rather put off facing football\u2019s best division as long as possible. The Eagles need to win and have Chicago lose.<\/p>\n
Jets at Bills<\/p>\n
This is more complicated, but the easiest way to organize it is this:<\/p>\n
If the Bills lose, they are the No. 7 seed.
\nIf they win, the outcome of the Jags, Texans and Broncos games will slot them anywhere from fifth to seventh.<\/p>\n