Click here<\/a> for live odds.<\/p>\nCarolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) | 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n
It\u2019s obvious how this has to end in the NFC South \u2014 the Buccaneers beat the Panthers and then have to root for the Falcons to lose Sunday to make the playoffs because of the three-way tiebreaker. That\u2019s not going to be easy, as the Buccaneers have been bad in all three phases during their 1-7 skid.<\/p>\n
But they lost to the Panthers by only 3 two weeks ago and are otherwise 4-0 against Bryce Young. Like a horror movie monster that\u2019s been \u201ckilled\u201d several times, the Buccaneers trudge on for another day thanks to muscle memory.<\/p>\n
The pick: Buccaneers<\/p>\n
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers | 8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n
The Seahawks have a much better consolation prize than the 49ers, as they get to face the NFC South winner if they lose Saturday. They also have the better team, as their defense is No. 1 in EPA per play allowed. The 49ers stole a win in Seattle in the opener when they had Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pass rush in the league without them. Sam Darnold is averaging a league-best 9.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket.<\/p>\n
The pick: Seahawks <\/p>\n
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
The Packers are locked into the seventh seed in the playoffs and will rest starters, while the Vikings\u2019 defense is coming off a dominating performance against the Lions, and Minnesota has won four games in a row. Though the Packers should drop to 0-4 since Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they have enough pride to keep it close.<\/p>\n
The pick: Packers <\/p>\n
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
Joe Burrow and company have won easily as best bets for us the past two weeks, and part of the reason is that their defensive players can now look their families in the eyes after games.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, it feels like the Browns ended their season with a big win over the hated Steelers last week, and players are deciding what shirts to pack for Cancun and Las Vegas. And they\u2019re probably chuckling at reports on how coach Kevin Stefanski is a hot candidate to get a job elsewhere,<\/p>\n
The pick: Bengals <\/p>\n
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
It sounds like Jerry Jones wants Dak Prescott to go out with a bang, and that he thinks finishing 8-8-1 is important. The Giants can\u2019t stop the run (31st at 145 yards allowed per game), which will get Prescott into some comfortable down and distances. Plus, I have no interest in backing a 3-13 team exhaling after a win.<\/p>\n
The pick: Cowboys <\/p>\n
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
Trevor Lawrence became the fourth player in NFL history with 25-plus passing touchdowns and nine-plus rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Cam Newton. The Jaguars are 4-0 since defensive end Travon Walker came back from wrist and knee injuries, and they have a lot to play for, as they could still finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 7 in AFC playoff seeding.<\/p>\n
The pick: Jaguars <\/p>\n
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
Saints rookie Tyler Shough, three months older than Brock Purdy, joined Burrow (2020) and Prescott (2016) as the only rookie QBs since the 1970 merger with 300-plus passing yards and zero interceptions in back-to-back games.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Falcons\u2019 run game has improved by 28 yards per game (120 to 148) since old man Kirk Cousins took over at quarterback. Raheem Morris gets his first four-game winning streak as Falcons coach, thanks also to a defense that has stopped opponents for no gain or a loss on league-high 38 percent of snaps the past three weeks.<\/p>\n
The pick: Falcons <\/p>\n
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
Philip Rivers finishes 0-3, but oh man, was everyone entertained. The Colts brass this week: \u201cHey, Riley Leonard, never mind that we signed a grandpa to play over you. You\u2019re up \u2026 against the scariest defense in the league.\u2019 The Texans are playing for a division title, while the Colts should see past the Daniel Jones injury as an excuse and clean house.<\/p>\n
The pick: Texans<\/p>\n
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
What are we missing with this number? The 11-5 Bears are playing for the No. 2 seed and also looking to avenge a 31-point loss to the Lions back in September. The 8-8 Lions are already licking their paws, having lost three in a row and been eliminated, and their run defense has been awful (5.5 yards per rush) the past five weeks. And Jared Goff hates the cold. Hmm. We\u2019re going to trust our spidey senses \u2014 and hey, Dan Campbell is 8-1 ATS after losses as a favorite \u2014 and go against logic and take the points.<\/p>\n
The pick: Lions <\/p>\n
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
If the 49ers win Saturday, the Rams have nothing to play for. If the Niners lose, the Rams can grab the No. 5 seed and a date with the NFC South chump. (No, not a typo.) Either way, laying the points here probably comes down to your confidence in backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo against a Cardinals team that, it turns out, was much more competitive with the often maligned Kyler Murray.<\/p>\n
The pick: Rams <\/p>\n
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
It sounds like Josh Allen, who has a sore foot, and the Bills\u2019 starters will play a little bit to get the taste of last week\u2019s loss out of their mouths. Which is probably bad news for Jets coach Aaron Glenn, who already can\u2019t feel safe after losing each of the past four games by at least 23 points (-107 overall). Imagine if Mitch Trubisky and Ray Davis put up 35.<\/p>\n
The pick: Bills<\/p>\n
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
The Eagles are going to rest players, as coach Nick Sirianni noted how important a week of rest was for the Super Bowl teams of 2022 and 2024. They\u2019re still a mess offensively \u2014 Jalen Hurts didn\u2019t complete a pass in the second half last week and is somehow 2-0 when doing that this season \u2014 but their defense is coming around. It has allowed a league-low 1.0 points per drive during the three-game win streak. That\u2019s good enough for me and my Tanner McKee.<\/p>\n
The pick: Eagles <\/p>\n
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n
Either Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford is deserving of the MVP award. How\u2019s that for a hot take? Maye might have had the easiest schedule this century, but he does take care of business. He leads the league with a 71.7 completion percentage, and this week, he gets a Dolphins defense that\u2019s allowed the highest completion percentage to opposing QBs this season. Plus, the Patriots might get a stud back on each side of the trenches in Will Campbell and Milton Williams.<\/p>\n
The pick: Patriots<\/p>\n
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-12.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
Jim Harbaugh is smart. Resting his players Sunday locks up the No. 1 seed for the Broncos and gives Harbaugh two weeks to scout the Patriots, the likely first-round opponent for the healthiest version of his team. Does that mean the Broncos are the obvious bet here? Well \u2026 they\u2019re 2-8 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this season, and while R.J. Harvey helped your fantasy team, the Broncos sorely miss J.K. Dobbins in games like this. Give me Trey Lance and the backdoor cover.<\/p>\n
The pick: Chargers <\/p>\n
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n
Pete Carroll said he wants a \u201cspecial\u201d win to end the season, never mind that Raiders fans are coveting the first pick in the draft. Maybe he thinks a meaningless win will convince owner Mark Davis to let him stay another year, but Davis isn\u2019t making those decisions anymore.<\/p>\n
Anyway, I do think some players like Carroll enough to give the Chiefs and Raiders fans a scare. It doesn\u2019t hurt that Geno Smith is out \u2014 his -0.1 EPA per dropback ranks 38th among qualified QBs. Take the points.<\/p>\n
The pick: Raiders\u00a0<\/p>\n
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n
This one just seems too easy, which might mean trouble. But \u2026 the Ravens are 7-3 and sixth in defensive EPA per play since their Week 7 bye.<\/p>\n
Without the suspended DK Metcalf last week, Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed a season-low 38 percent of his pass attempts to wide receivers (8 of 21), including 1 of 9 passes thrown to wideouts at least 10 yards downfield. Metcalf, out again, has more receptions from Rodgers on 10-plus-yard throws (17) than all other Pittsburgh wide receivers combined (15). And then, the whole \u201cKing\u201d thing.<\/p>\n
The pick: Ravens<\/p>\n
Best bets: All favorites. The Bengals and Ravens keep it rolling against the Browns and Steelers, respectively. And coaches say \u201cnext man up\u201d so often that we\u2019ve been brainwashed \u2014 the Bills, Eagles and Rams\u2019 backups carry us home against the Jets, Commanders and Cardinals.<\/p>\n
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We took only four underdogs this week. Of those, we\u2019re gonna hope Malik Willis plays and the Packers cash in at +280 against the Vikings.<\/p>\n
\u2014 TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Long live the king! That\u2019s what Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh will be yelling Sunday night when \u201cKing…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":645671,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2052],"tags":[390,254,184,117,2282,53,260,391,256,54,257,258,113,7,345,253,392,125,110,393,262,58,251,259,249,55,56,255,6,109,57,169,252,261,5433,250,394,111],"class_list":{"0":"post-645670","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-baltimore-ravens","8":"tag-arizona-cardinals","9":"tag-atlanta-falcons","10":"tag-baltimore","11":"tag-baltimore-ravens","12":"tag-baltimoreravens","13":"tag-buffalo-bills","14":"tag-carolina-panthers","15":"tag-chicago-bears","16":"tag-cincinnati-bengals","17":"tag-cleveland-browns","18":"tag-dallas-cowboys","19":"tag-denver-broncos","20":"tag-detroit-lions","21":"tag-football","22":"tag-green-bay-packers","23":"tag-houston-texans","24":"tag-indianapolis-colts","25":"tag-jacksonville-jaguars","26":"tag-kansas-city-chiefs","27":"tag-las-vegas-raiders","28":"tag-los-angeles-chargers","29":"tag-los-angeles-rams","30":"tag-miami-dolphins","31":"tag-minnesota-vikings","32":"tag-new-england-patriots","33":"tag-new-orleans-saints","34":"tag-new-york-giants","35":"tag-new-york-jets","36":"tag-nfl","37":"tag-philadelphia-eagles","38":"tag-pittsburgh-steelers","39":"tag-ravens","40":"tag-san-francisco-49ers","41":"tag-seattle-seahawks","42":"tag-sports-betting","43":"tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","44":"tag-tennessee-titans","45":"tag-washington-commanders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/645670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=645670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/645670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/645671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=645670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=645670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=645670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}