Welcome back to my weekly AFC West check-in \u2013 a quick, data-driven power ranking that tracks how the divisional shifts from Sunday to Sunday. Rankings aren\u2019t box-score trophies \u2013 they\u2019re context-adjusted judgments on where these teams are at and who\u2019s sitting pole week to week. Here\u2019s how \u2013 along with the why \u2013 I stack the AFC West heading into the last full slate of the season (sigh).<\/p>\n
4. Raiders![\"Maxx](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/USATSI_27867574_168396005_lowres-1024x683.jpg\")
Dec 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) and defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) in the tunnel against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
The Raiders are 2-14 and playing like they\u2019re trying to clinch the No. 1 pick by halftime every week. The Maxx Crosby drama didn\u2019t just remove pass rush \u2013 it sucked the identity out of the room, and the on-field product has matched the vibes: flat, sloppy, and allergic to momentum. Even when someone like Michael Mayer flashes, it feels like a lone bright bulb in a power outage. This is what \u201ccooked\u201d looks like.<\/p>\n
Week 18 Lookahead (Chiefs at Raiders): This is a \u201cget 2025 over with\u201d game for both teams, and Vegas should treat it like an audition tape for 2026 roles. If Geno can\u2019t go, the QB spot becomes a circus assignment while the staff tries to find any functional offense on the fly.<\/p>\n
3. Chiefs![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/USATSI_27865703_168396005_lowres-1024x674.jpg\")
Dec 21, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun (19) scrambles against Tennessee Titans defensive tackle James Lynch (97) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Kansas City being 6-10 doesn\u2019t even feel real, but losing your entire offensive engine (Mahomes) turns dynasty into daycare fast. The offense has been limping, uninspired, and basically living on empty calories \u2013 short drives, bad spacing, and no plan once the script gets punched. The defense is the one unit that still looks like it has pride, which is both admirable and kind of depressing. At this point, I\u2019m still surprised we haven\u2019t seen more Brashard Smith, because the few times he touches it, he actually injects life into a dead room.<\/p>\n
Week 18 Lookahead (Chiefs at Raiders): KC should lean into defense, field position, and whatever run game they can manufacture \u2013 because this is actually a reasonable chance for a win. The goal is simple: end the skid and go out with some pride.<\/p>\n
2. Chargers![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/USATSI_27864981-1024x683.jpg\")
Dec 21, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) returns to the bench with running back Omarion Hampton (8), tight end Will Dissly (89) and quarterback Justin Herbert (10) after catching a touchdown pass from Herbert against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
The Chargers are 11-5, playoff-bound, and still maddening because the offense can drift in and out of rhythm. Herbert continues to impress with his legs, but that\u2019s also a tell \u2013 when your QB scramble game is your most reliable rushing button, the structure doesn\u2019t sustain winning. Defensively, the Achilles\u2019 heel is still the same: you can\u2019t give up back-breaking chunk plays and expect to outscore the damage every week. They\u2019re good, they\u2019re dangerous, but they\u2019re still one slow start away from getting bounced early.<\/p>\n
Week 18 Lookahead (Chargers at Broncos): The chess move is whether the Chargers rest starters while Denver plays for seeding. Either way, this matchup is going to be physical because it\u2019s division football. If LA sits guys, it becomes a stress test of depth; if they don\u2019t, it\u2019s a playoff-intensity tune-up against the best team in the division (maybe the NFL).<\/p>\n
1. Broncos![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/USATSI_27885704-1024x683.jpg\")
Dec 25, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after scoring during the third quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Denver is 13-3, just ended the Arrowhead curse, and has finally become the adult in the AFC West again (Elway rejoices!). Bo Nix is a late-game closer, and the offense has learned how to win without needing perfect conditions or a 40-point script. The defense is steady, disciplined, and ruthlessly boring in the best way. Sean Payton has this team looking organized, confident, and consistent\u2026 which is exactly how contenders behave.<\/p>\n
Week 18 Lookahead (Chargers at Broncos): Denver should treat this like a playoff dress rehearsal \u2013 start fast, control the trenches, and don\u2019t let intensity slip just because the opponent\u2019s motivation might be different. If the Chargers rest starters, it\u2019s still a trap game unless Denver plays with the same urgency they had at Arrowhead.<\/p>\n