{"id":648072,"date":"2026-01-02T12:36:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T12:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/648072\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T12:36:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T12:36:14","slug":"detroit-lions-vs-chicago-bears-preview-6-keys-to-victory-in-week-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/648072\/","title":{"rendered":"Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears preview: 6 keys to victory in Week 18"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Detroit Lions (8-8) and Chicago Bears (11-5) will square off in a Week 18 NFC North battle to close out the regular season. Because the Lions and Bears have already played this season, this week\u2019s Honolulu Blueprint will look a bit different. Instead of starting from scratch, we will revisit the keys to victory from Week 2<\/a>, examine what worked and what didn\u2019t, then identify what the Lions need to adjust in Week 18.<\/p>\n

If the Lions want to end their season on a positive note, they\u2019ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week\u2019s Honolulu Blueprint.<\/p>\n

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions (from Week 2) Preview: Breaking down Bears\u2019 offensive and defensive schemes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Notable changes from Week 2<\/p>\n

Lions coach Dan Campbell on how the Bears have changed since Week 2:<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re more polished. They\u2019re a better team. Really, since that time, they have led the league in takeaways on defense. I mean, they\u2019re getting them. It\u2019s like we talk about, it\u2019s contagious for them. Those guys are getting them in a good way. Got one the other night. Once again, it turned into a touchdown. And it\u2019s much more sound. (Bears Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen) D.A.\u2019s got his system in, and it\u2019s grown and developed. And they\u2019re keeping teams out of the end zone, keeping the offense ahead; that\u2019s what you\u2019ve got to do on defense, get the takeaways. That\u2019s big.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then offensively, they\u2019re more polished. (Bears Head Coach) Ben (Johnson)\u2019s done a good job. The system is in, and these little things that were there in Game 2, Game 1, they\u2019ve begun to go away. They\u2019ve got a run game. They\u2019ve found a run game, play-action pass, (Bears QB) Caleb (Williams)\u2019s playing really well, O-line\u2019s playing really well. Got a run game, (Bears RB D\u2019Andre) Swift\u2019s running well. (Bears RB Kyle Monangai) 25, he\u2019s a downhill, hard runner too. Tight end\u2019s playing good, both of them – really all three of them. So, they\u2019re playing at a high level. They\u2019re doing things well. Much more polished.\u201d<\/p>\n

Key 1: Establish the rushing attack<\/p>\n

Yes. After a dud in Week 1, the Lions rebounded with 177 rushing yards, including 94 from Jahmyr Gibbs on just 12 carries. Both Gibbs and David Montgomery scored touchdowns on the ground.<\/p>\n

The Lions\u2019 rushing attack has fallen off a cliff, and they\u2019ve run for just 153 yards in the past three games combined. Per Next Gen Stats, \u201cGibbs has gained negative rushing yards before contact in each game during the Lions\u2019 current three-game losing streak.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hee\u2019s Lions offensive coordinator John Morton with more on the Lions\u2019 recent rushing struggles:<\/p>\n

\u201cYeah, it\u2019s been difficult because then you become a passing offense, which we can do that, but you don\u2019t want to live on that. So, it\u2019s been a work in progress\u2026 it\u2019s always been a big emphasis every single week, the run game and trying to get it going. And sometimes you get behind the eight ball and you\u2019ve got to throw it and sometimes you don\u2019t get the right looks and sometimes we just aren\u2019t executing. We all have our hand in all of this, so it\u2019s just a little bit of everything. It\u2019s frustrating, yeah it is. All you can do is just keep working and just try to improve.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Lions need to get back to what\u2019s worked for them in the past, and the Bears\u2019 28th-ranked DVOA run defense could be just what Detroit needs.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Morton on Chicago\u2019s run defense:<\/p>\n

\u201cWith Chicago, I think we can get after these guys a little bit, I really do. They\u2019re giving up almost five yards a carry, so I like our chances there with this defense. So, I like the matchup here and I liked it the first game.\u201d<\/p>\n

Key 2: Improve OL communication<\/p>\n

Yes. Like with the rushing attack, the Lions\u2019 offensive communication was smooth and effective, providing the foundation for their early-season success.<\/p>\n

The offensive line has worn down. Taylor Decker\u2019s season-long injury has taken its toll, Penei Sewell has been playing through an injury for the past month and a half, Christian Mahogany is still working back from injured reserve, Graham Glasgow has not played the past two weeks, and Tate Ratledge has hit the rookie wall.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Next Gen Stats on the Lions\u2019 offensive line:<\/p>\n

\u201cWith injuries to Taylor Decker, Christian Mahogany, Graham Glasgow, and Penei Sewell at different points in the year, the Lions have played eight different combinations on the offensive line at least 50 snaps (tied-3rd-most).\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Morton on the Lions\u2019 recent offensive line struggles:<\/p>\n

\u201cWell, the number one thing you want is continuity. And when you don\u2019t have that on the offensive line, that\u2019s part of the problem. It isn\u2019t all of the problem, it\u2019s a little bit of everything, it really is. But it does start up front. If you can control the line of scrimmage and do that, it just makes everything a lot easier, which you guys have kind of done here in the last few years. But continuity is the biggest thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

They need to dig deep and find a way to put it on the line for one more game.<\/p>\n

Key 3: Separate and hit the target<\/p>\n

Yes. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with nine receptions for 115 yards and three touchdowns, and his average separation was 2.3 yards per play. Jameson Williams reached 4.0 (two receptions for 108 yards), Brock Wright 4.1 (three for 28), Sam LaPorta 4.2 (three for 26), Jahmyr Gibbs 4.3 (three for 10), and David Montgomery 9.0 yards of separation (one for 4).<\/p>\n

Not much, this strategy is still very much a part of what the Lions do. The only real change is that the Lions are without their top two tight ends, Laporta and Wright, which has impacted the offense more than most originally thought.<\/p>\n

Take what there is against the Bears\u2019 zone coverage scheme, try to stay in good down-and-distances, and continue to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown.<\/p>\n

No. The Lions offense converted only four of 10 third-down attempts, though they were 1-for-1 on fourth down. On defense, things weren\u2019t much better, as they allowed the Bears to convert seven of their 13 attempts (54%).<\/p>\n

Those results were close to the Lions\u2019 season average on offense, as Detroit converts 38.3% of their third-down attempts, 20th in the NFL. Too often\u2014especially of late\u2014the Lions have gotten into third-and-longs and been unable to convert.<\/p>\n

On defense, the Lions have been better this season, allowing teams to convert on fewer than 37% of their attempts, 11th-best in the NFL.<\/p>\n

Obviously, it\u2019s easy to say that the Lions offense needs to get into better down-and-distance situations and be smarter with their play calling, but unfortunately, it appears to be who they are.<\/p>\n

No. The Bears ran the ball 27 times for 134 yards (5.0 ave.) despite trailing all game.<\/p>\n

The Bears\u2019 rushing attack has gotten even stronger, while the Lions\u2019 run defense has slowly declined. The Bears average 149.4 rushing yards per game, are No. 1 in the NFL in rushing success rate (48.6%), and have earned the fourth-best rushing DVOA ranking. The Bears rush outside the tackles nearly 60% of the time (third-most in the NFL) and have leaned into that approach because of their success.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard on the Bears\u2019 rushing attack:<\/p>\n

\u201cI see a player (D\u2019Andre Swift) that\u2019s determined to run hard. He\u2019s running behind his pads right now. I think Swift\u2019s got this \u2018stigma\u2019 of this shifty, elusive running back, and people forgot how strong this player is. What I see is a two-headed monster over there, him and (Bears RB) Kyle (Monangai), the rookie that\u2019s doing a phenomenal job out of Rutgers. Like these guys are running behind their pads, they have a very sound system where they\u2019re going to try to attack you week-to-week. The run game changes week-to-week, and you see it. It\u2019s a very gameplan-specific, oriented offense in totality.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Lions will need to commit more players to stopping the run\u2014especially on the edges\u2014and force Bears quarterback Caleb Williams to beat them. Williams continues to struggle with his accuracy and is still prone to missing open receivers (Williams\u2019 57.9% completion percentage is a league low), so it\u2019s worth the gamble for Detroit.<\/p>\n

Key 6: Contain and squeeze<\/p>\n

Yes and no. The Lions did a nice job containing Williams on designed runs, but he did still manage to rush for 27 yards on scrambles. The Lions also generated pressure on 43.2% of defensive snaps, and sacked Williams four times\u2014the most he\u2019s been sacked this season.<\/p>\n

As it turns out, this was the first real sign the Lions had figured out how to contain mobile quarterbacks, and that has been something they\u2019ve hung their hat on this season. Here\u2019s how quarterbacks have run on the Lions this season:<\/p>\n

Lamar Jackson: 7 carries for 35 yardsPatrick Mahomes: 10 for 32Jalen Hurts: 10 for 31Caleb Williams: 5 for 27Marcus Mariota: 5 for 22Dak Prescott: 3 for 14Jameis Winston: 4 for 13J.J. McCarthy: 9 for 12Jordan Love 8 for 8 (two games combined)<\/p>\n

The Lions need to stay the course. Williams has averaged 4.75 rushing attempts for just over 24 yards per game, which closely mirrors what we saw in Week 2. However, that doesn\u2019t mean the Lions can let up, because Williams has the skills to chew up yards on the ground if you leave him time and allow him to escape. Williams has reached 20+ miles per hour on five scrambles this season, equal to all other NFL quarterbacks on the season combined.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Detroit Lions (8-8) and Chicago Bears (11-5) will square off in a Week 18 NFC North battle…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":648073,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2071],"tags":[146,113,52733,449,2506,7,147,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-648072","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-detroit-lions","8":"tag-detroit","9":"tag-detroit-lions","10":"tag-detroit-lions-game-preview","11":"tag-detroit-lions-analysis","12":"tag-detroitlions","13":"tag-football","14":"tag-lions","15":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115825540159745128","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=648072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/648073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=648072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=648072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=648072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}