The final main slate of the season always reminds me of the Upside Down in \u201cStranger Things.\u201d<\/p>\n
Only instead of a toxic, parallel dimension overrun with vines and murderous creatures, we get extreme unpredictability with the potential for even more variance than usual.<\/p>\n
There are teams with playoff spots locked up who plan to rest key starters. Throw in a confusing mix of \u201cincentive chasing\u201d and \u201ctanking,\u201d it usually means huge stars can become busts and backups suddenly become vital.<\/p>\n
This all means standard projections based on typical season performance are useless. They struggle to keep up with the flood of news unleashed towards the end of the week.<\/p>\n
This is where an advantage develops, because the field usually expresses significant certainty in places where it simply doesn\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n
This week\u2019s example is Jaydon Blue starting at running back for the Dallas Cowboys. Blue could get the lion\u2019s share of work against the Giants, but he has zero explosive runs in 22 carries this season, and it felt like Cowboys have gone out of their way to keep him off the field. Phil Mafah could end up being just as involved as Blue on Sunday.<\/p>\n
One place I agree with the field this week is that the Jacksonville Jaguars could be the key to unlocking the slate.<\/p>\n
The Jaguars have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, and more importantly, they still haven\u2019t locked up the division. This means they have a must-win game against a very beatable Titans\u2019 secondary.<\/p>\n
The Preamble<\/p>\n
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I\u2019m here weekly to assist.<\/p>\n
On DraftKings, it\u2019s important to remember you\u2019re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.<\/p>\n
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday\u2019s NFL $2.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.<\/p>\n
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.<\/p>\n
The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I\u2019m in the red $205 with an average score of 131.81 points through 17 weeks.<\/p>\n
Year-To-Date Results<\/p>\n
Week 1: 95.52<\/p>\n
Week 2: 124.90<\/p>\n
Week 3: 181.44<\/p>\n
Week 4: 142.88<\/p>\n
Week 5: 162.24<\/p>\n
Week 6: 117.24<\/p>\n
Week 7: 116.46<\/p>\n
Week 8: 158.26<\/p>\n
Week 9: 146.94<\/p>\n
Week 10: 114.44<\/p>\n
Week 11: 118.68<\/p>\n
Week 12: 147.58<\/p>\n
Week 13: 119.72<\/p>\n
Week 14: 137.12<\/p>\n
Week 15: 124.50<\/p>\n
Week 16: 114.90<\/p>\n
Week 17: 118.00<\/p>\n
Week 18 lineup<\/p>\n
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($6,400)<\/p>\n
Jacksonville could theoretically finish as high as the No. 1 seed or as low as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. I\u2019m expecting Lawrence\u2019s best, which has actually been great over the last six weeks.<\/p>\n
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($8,000)<\/p>\n
Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are the highest-priced running backs on the main slate, but Gibbs is expected to have far lower ownership. Even Blue is projected to be utilized at a higher rate.<\/p>\n
RB: Jordan Mason, Vikings ($5,200)<\/p>\n
Aaron Jones is out, and Mason should take on a bell-cow role. He\u2019s had at least 16 carries in six career games and produced at least 100 rushing yards in four of them.<\/p>\n
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($5,300)<\/p>\n
Thomas has been the most volatile Jacksonville receiver, but he also has the most upside this week. According to Fantasy Pros, the Titans have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, and the seventh-most receiving yards per game since Week 13.<\/p>\n
WR: Luther Burden III, Bears ($5,300)<\/p>\n
The Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and Burden looks like the top receiver in Chicago\u2019s newly explosive offense. I actually expect this to be one of the more exciting and competitive games to watch this week.<\/p>\n
WR: Parker Washington, Jaguars ($5,100)<\/p>\n
Washington has finished as the weekly WR3 and WR9 the last two weeks with a 27.4% target share. The Titans have allowed the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 13. By stacking Thomas and Washington with Lawrence, we\u2019re differentiating from the field who is projected to roster Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange at very high rates.<\/p>\n
TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals ($7,500)<\/p>\n
Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, and McBride can extend his NFL record for receptions by a tight end while also chasing Travis Kelce\u2019s receiving yards record (1,416). He needs 243 yards, so I\u2019m saying there\u2019s a chance.<\/p>\n
FLEX: Jaylen Wright, Dolphins ($4,200)<\/p>\n
De\u2019Von Achane is listed as doubtful, which should open up more opportunities for Wright (and potentially rookie Ollie Gordon). I prefer Wright. He\u2019s been the more explosive option this season. According to Fantasy Pros, the Patriots have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, fifth-highest explosive run rate and highest yards before contact per attempt since Week 13.<\/p>\n
DST: Minnesota Vikings ($3,000)<\/p>\n
The Vikings have been the best defense in the league over the last month or so and are at home against a \u201cresting\u201d Packers team with Clayton Tune under center.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The final main slate of the season always reminds me of the Upside Down in \u201cStranger Things.\u201d Only…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":652198,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2060],"tags":[4133,62223,62224,94755,96,94756,7,212,125,2401,213,1674,5660,3974,20893,446,62222,94754,67210,6,90671,8466,314,6042,10140],"class_list":{"0":"post-652197","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jacksonville-jaguars","8":"tag-brian-thomas-jr","9":"tag-dfs","10":"tag-dfs-lineup","11":"tag-dfs-week-18","12":"tag-draftkings","13":"tag-draftkings-week-18","14":"tag-football","15":"tag-jacksonville","16":"tag-jacksonville-jaguars","17":"tag-jacksonvillejaguars","18":"tag-jaguars","19":"tag-jahmyr-gibbs","20":"tag-jaylen-wright","21":"tag-jordan-mason","22":"tag-lineup","23":"tag-luther-burden-iii","24":"tag-milly-maker","25":"tag-milly-maker-week-18","26":"tag-minnesota-vikings-defense","27":"tag-nfl","28":"tag-nfl-week-18","29":"tag-parker-washington","30":"tag-trevor-lawrence","31":"tag-trey-mcbride","32":"tag-week-18"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115834525052654132","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=652197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/652198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=652197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=652197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=652197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}