{"id":653086,"date":"2026-01-04T11:15:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T11:15:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/653086\/"},"modified":"2026-01-04T11:15:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T11:15:14","slug":"20-patriots-predictions-for-the-2026-nfl-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/653086\/","title":{"rendered":"20 Patriots predictions for the 2026 NFL season"},"content":{"rendered":"

A belated happy New Year!<\/p>\n

The Patriots are playoff-bound to start 2026 and could not have asked anything more of 2025.<\/p>\n

Drake Maye should be bound to win the next MVP award, and Mike Vrabel might snag Coach of the Year. In a month\u2019s time, the Patriots could be preparing for a return to the Super Bowl. All of that felt like pure fantasy at this time last year.<\/p>\n

Well, welcome to the NFL.<\/p>\n

So what might the rest of 2026 hold for the Pats?<\/p>\n

Here are 26 predictions for what lies ahead in the new year:<\/p>\n

1. Better team, worse record<\/p>\n

After coasting through a historically soft schedule \u2014 and yes, it\u2019s been that easy \u2014 the Pats will return to Earth in 2026, and their return should come with a light thud.<\/p>\n

Bet on 11 or 12 wins next year, rather than 13 or 14. That drop will mask improvement defensively (currently ranked 25th by DVOA) and running the ball. Maye, by all accounts, should continue to ascend.<\/p>\n

But with nine games scheduled against teams currently in the playoff picture, the Patriots are bound for some hard times. Not to mention, Lady Luck might not look as favorably on Maye and Co. Start with their 6-2 record in one-score games this season, and the fact they recovered most of their own fumbles and their opponents\u2019 fumbles this season. None of those bounces are guaranteed next year.<\/p>\n

2. Patriots repeat as AFC East champs<\/p>\n

Despite their drop, the Pats won\u2019t fall far from their perch in the division. In fact, they won\u2019t fall at all.<\/p>\n

The Jets and Dolphins need more time and talent to threaten. Buffalo is facing problems down the middle of its defense and with its weapons around Josh Allen. The Pats have fewer roster holes, and more power to fill them.<\/p>\n

According to Over the Cap, the Patriots currently rank 10th by most cap space for the 2026 season. Expect them to use that to plug holes in their defensive front and continue to maximize the room provided by Maye\u2019s cost-controlled rookie contract. Despite facing a second-place schedule, the Bills won\u2019t catch many breaks while also facing the entirety of the AFC West and NFC West next year.<\/p>\n

3. Maye doesn\u2019t repeat as MVP<\/p>\n

What a leap for me. What a fall for Drake!<\/p>\n

Again, this comes down to a tougher schedule, and the fact so many elite quarterbacks were hurt or down this season: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, to name a few.<\/p>\n

\"NewNew England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye scores despite defended by Carolina Panthers’ DJ Johnson during the second quarter of a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane\/Boston Herald)<\/p>\n

Still, Maye is too good to exit the conversation all together. He\u2019ll be in the mix until the end and finish somewhere in the top five of MVP voting next year.<\/p>\n

4. DeMario Douglas is traded<\/p>\n

This one hurts.<\/p>\n

Douglas may be the most well-liked player in the locker room and is certainly a joy to cover. But he\u2019s entering a contract year with a clear replacement behind him on the depth chart. Efton Chism may not be ready for a full-time job in 2026, but he\u2019s a hand-in-glove fit for the slot receiver role in this system and can split snaps with Stefon Diggs.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the Pats flip Douglas for a late-round pick, and entertain extension talks with another 2023 draft selection: Kayshon Boutte. But back to Diggs \u2026<\/p>\n

5. Stefon Diggs gets a raise<\/p>\n

The 32-year-old is owed less than $2 million guaranteed over the next two seasons. Don\u2019t expect that to sit well with him, as a team leader and the first No. 1 receiver the Patriots have fielded in years.<\/p>\n

Assuming Diggs\u2019 legal troubles fade the way the team apparently expects them to, they\u2019re likely to revisit the dressed-up flier contract they signed him to last year. And that means more money for Diggs in the coming months.<\/p>\n

6. Patriots draft 1st-round edge rusher<\/p>\n

No premium position on this roster is in greater need of young talent than edge rusher.<\/p>\n

The Pats simply need more juice here beyond Harold Landry and K\u2019Lavon Chaisson, who can soon leave in free agency. Better yet \u2026<\/p>\n

7. Patriots trade up for a 1st-round edge rusher<\/p>\n

That\u2019s better.<\/p>\n

The Pats have an extra 2026 fourth-round pick and three extra sixth-rounders. All of those selections won\u2019t be enough to make a major move up in the first round, but they should give Vrabel and Eliot Wolf enough confidence to part with their 2026 third-rounder or a future pick in a deal and then replenish that selection(s) in a separate trade later in the draft.<\/p>\n

Initial names to know: Miami\u2019s Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, Texas Tech\u2019s David Bailey, Auburn\u2019s Keldrick Faulk Clemson\u2019s T.J. Parker and Missouri\u2019s Zion Young.<\/p>\n

8. Christian Gonzalez becomes NFL\u2019s highest-paid corner
\n\"NewNew England Patriots Christian Gonzalez chases down Cleveland Browns’ Quinshon Judkins during the second quarter of a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane\/Boston Herald)<\/p>\n

Gonzalez might finish the season with zero interceptions, but his advanced numbers are still near the top of the league at his position. As soon as he\u2019s extension eligible this March, expect a deal to follow.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s good business to extend elite players at premium positions who won\u2019t turn 25 for another year as soon as possible. The only real question is if the Patriots beat the Seahawks to extend their own first-round corner from the 2023 draft: Pro Bowl cover man Devon Witherspoon.<\/p>\n

One or both of them should top Sauce Gardner\u2019s position-leading $30.1 million average annual salary or Derek Stingley Jr.\u2019s $89 million guaranteed, the most ever paid to a cornerback. Both of those deals were struck last offseason.<\/p>\n

9. Two position coaches leave<\/p>\n

None of these assistants should be rushing out the door, but tight ends coach\/passing game coordinator Thomas Brown seems primed to fly the Foxboro nest.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s a two-time former offensive coordinator with interim head-coaching experience who\u2019s sure to draw interest on the coaching carousel this season. Vrabel is sure to give him a glowing review, be it as a coordinator again or a head coach. He\u2019s young, hungry and well-liked around the league.<\/p>\n

For the fifth year in a row, the Patriots should have a new tight ends coach in 2026.<\/p>\n

And the other assistant? How about Doug Marrone hanging them up?<\/p>\n

The counter to a potential Marrone retirement is he\u2019ll only turn 62 this summer, and is a football lifer dating back to his days as a journeyman player in the late \u201980s and early \u201990s. But Marrone spent last year as an analyst for his good friend, Boston College coach Bill O\u2019Brien; a lower stress role than a full-time position coach.<\/p>\n

He also has two assistants under him now as the Patriots\u2019 offensive line coach. Do the Patriots need three offensive line coaches? Maybe. Maybe not.<\/p>\n

10. TreVeyon Henderson becomes RB1<\/p>\n

In 2026, Henderson irons out his issues in blitz pickup and runs more patiently, posting a 1,000-yard season as the Patriots\u2019 new full-time back. He might even push for a top spot on the franchise\u2019s all-time single-season rushing board (Corey Dillon leads with 1,645 yards in 2004).<\/p>\n

\"NewNew England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) pushes New York Giants safety Dane Belton (24) as he runs for extra yards during the second half of an NFL game at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone\/Boston Herald)<\/p>\n

The talent has always been. He just needed time.<\/p>\n

11. Patriots \u2018disappoint\u2019 in free agency<\/p>\n

Compared to past years, this is a lackluster free-agent class. The top 10 players include, in some order, Trey Hendrickson, Daniel Jones, Packers offensive tackle Rasheed Walker, Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum, Eagles edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who was just traded and Cowboys receiver George Pickens, who may not reach the market. Why not?<\/p>\n

Lately, all the best players at every premium position \u2014 quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher, offensive tackle and cornerback \u2014 re-sign or are traded before they hit the open market. Big-time free-agent splashes just aren\u2019t there to be made.<\/p>\n

That means the best wide receiver available should be the Colts\u2019 Alec Pierce, who\u2019s never had a 1,000-yard season. Assuming the Pats don\u2019t land Pierce or a big-name veteran like Hendrickson, March will feel like a failure to fans.<\/p>\n

But just like last spring, when smaller deals that netted K\u2019Lavon Chaisson, Khyiris Tonga and Mack Hollins helped fortify a true contender in New England, free-agent success can again be mined outside of the top of their board.<\/p>\n

12. Jaylinn Hawkins re-signs<\/p>\n

Hawkins is currently headed for free agency after a breakout season with 69 tackles, 1.5 sacks and a career-high three interceptions.<\/p>\n

But the bet here is that the Patriots don\u2019t let him leave, inking a strong locker-room presence and culture driver to a multi-year deal around $10 million annually. Hawkins represents the type of veteran Vrabel wants in New England, and the Patriots reward him for his leadership and on-field performance.<\/p>\n

13. K\u2019Lavon Chaisson walks<\/p>\n

Speaking of breakout seasons, how about Chaisson?<\/p>\n

\"NewNew England Patriots linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson celebrates a sack during the first quarter of a game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane\/Boston Herald)<\/p>\n

Still only 26, the former first-rounder has tallied 6.5 sacks, 16 QB hits and two forced fumbles this season, all career highs. He\u2019s in his physical prime and at worst a rotational edge rusher on any NFL roster. Having finally realized his draft potential, Chaisson lands a massive free-agent contract elsewhere and leaves New England a rich man.<\/p>\n

14. Rob Gronkowski is elected to Patriots Hall of Fame<\/p>\n

Adam Vinatieri and Logan Mankins will be named finalists for a second straight year and have to wait their turn behind arguably the greatest tight end of all time.<\/p>\n

Gronkowski will be eligible for the Hall for the first time this spring. And he will win the fan vote by a landslide.<\/p>\n

15. Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick elected to Pro Football Hall of Fame<\/p>\n

Induction is long overdue for Kraft, and Belichick should be a unanimous selection, barring some voter still salty over Spygate, Deflategate or both.<\/p>\n

Either way, the greatest coach of all time, and the owner who presided over the greatest dynasty in NFL history, get their due. But make no mistake, as they smile for the cameras come August, the awkwardness on that stage will be palpable.<\/p>\n

16. The Patriots play in the Hall of Fame game<\/p>\n

With Kraft and Belichick entering the Hall, this is an easy call.<\/p>\n

The Patriots are selected to open the NFL preseason by playing the first exhibition in Canton on Hall of Fame weekend.<\/p>\n

Fun fact: the last time the Pats played in the Hall of Fame game, Tom Brady attempted his first NFL passes as a rookie in 2000.<\/p>\n

17. Patriots-Bills open Week 1<\/p>\n

Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen. Who could resist this ratings machine?<\/p>\n

The only question is: do they meet on Thursday night with one team hosting as the reigning Super Bowl champion?<\/p>\n

Or do they clash on Sunday Night Football in Buffalo\u2019s brand-new stadium?<\/p>\n

18. Another win in Miami<\/p>\n

The South Florida curse is broken. At least for now.<\/p>\n

The Dolphins should be an unholy, rebuilding mess in 2026, and as poorly as the Patriots have played down there historically, this is a new era.<\/p>\n

Put down another W next season, one far less stressful than the 33-27 victory back in Week 2.<\/p>\n

19. A Detroit Thanksgiving<\/p>\n

It will have been 16 years since the Patriots played the Lions on Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n

That streak ends Nov. 26, 2026.<\/p>\n

20. The Patriots lose in the AFC Championship Game<\/p>\n

So close.<\/p>\n

The good news: with Vrabel and Maye, there will always, always, be next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A belated happy New Year! The Patriots are playoff-bound to start 2026 and could not have asked anything…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":653087,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2050],"tags":[833,7,6441,838,1167,249,2326,2094,6,835,832,208,836,834,831,837],"class_list":{"0":"post-653086","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-england-patriots","8":"tag-drake-maye","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-josh-mcdaniels","11":"tag-mike-vrabel","12":"tag-new-england","13":"tag-new-england-patriots","14":"tag-newengland","15":"tag-newenglandpatriots","16":"tag-nfl","17":"tag-nfl-news","18":"tag-nfl-rumors","19":"tag-patriots","20":"tag-patriots-2025","21":"tag-patriots-news","22":"tag-patriots-rumors","23":"tag-robert-kraft"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115836546460805114","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=653086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653086\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/653087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=653086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=653086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=653086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}