{"id":661424,"date":"2026-01-07T15:26:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:26:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/661424\/"},"modified":"2026-01-07T15:26:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:26:14","slug":"secs-reality-check-how-nil-flattened-the-cfp-and-indianas-future-in-mandels-mailbag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/661424\/","title":{"rendered":"SEC\u2019s reality check, how NIL flattened the CFP and Indiana\u2019s future in Mandel\u2019s Mailbag"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There was a clip going around this week from when Larry David\u2019s character said in the season 10 premiere of \u201cCurb Your Enthusiasm\u201d that the statute of limitations for wishing someone Happy New Year\u2019s is three days into the year.<\/p>\n<p>However, come the following season, while canvassing door-to-door for a mayoral candidate, he tells someone who answers the door that one of the candidate\u2019s stances is \u201cyou can\u2019t say Happy New Year\u2019s until after Jan. 7.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I assume he extended the grace period once the CFP pushed the semifinals back a week.<\/p>\n<p>What more will it take for the media and committee to accept that the SEC isn\u2019t the power it used to be? There is no need for a five-bid league, especially when the middle of the conference sure looks mediocre.\u00a0\u2014 Evan B.<\/p>\n<p>Many of you didn\u2019t love that I turned this legit question <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6930966\/2025\/12\/31\/kyle-whittingham-michigan-usc-notre-dame\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">into a one-liner last week<\/a>, so I\u2019m bringing it back. In my defense, that mailbag went up the day before the Indiana-Alabama Rose Bowl, and I wanted to hold off writing the SEC\u2019s obit lest the Tide upset the Hoosiers and vindicate Greg Sankey.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6934917\/2026\/01\/01\/indiana-alabama-rose-bowl-curt-cignetti-cfp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">the opposite happened<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The SEC is having its worst postseason since I began covering the sport. Its teams are now 2-7 in the CFP\/bowls when not facing each other.<\/p>\n<p>To the SEC apologists who say you shouldn\u2019t read anything into non-CFP bowl results, I\u2019d respond by saying, first of all, I didn\u2019t hear much of that when the league was going 8-2, but also, if we go just by the CFP, the SEC is now 2-5 in the 12-team era.<\/p>\n<p>Not great, Bob.<\/p>\n<p>While it\u2019s been clear for two years that the league was slipping, I was slow to recognize how much. For most of the season, I felt the conference, though not what it once was, is still top-to-bottom the best in the country. Hard to say anymore now that the Big Ten is 8-3 against other conferences in the 12-team era and 8-2 head-to-head against the SEC in all postseason games over the past two years.<\/p>\n<p>Ole Miss winning the national championship would save some face for the league, but it wouldn\u2019t change the bigger-picture issues.<\/p>\n<p>Bruce Feldman wrote an interesting piece earlier this week with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6938399\/2026\/01\/04\/sec-football-bowl-records-nil-transfer-portal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">opposing\/former coaches\u2019 observations about the SEC\u2019s decline<\/a>, with many correctly pointing out the trend started shortly after NIL became a factor. NIL and the portal have leveled not just the sport overall but also the SEC internally. Alabama and Georgia no longer operate in a separate tier, as shown by the fact that Ole Miss \u2014 one of the early adapters to the new landscape \u2014 is now the league\u2019s last team standing. Much like Texas last year.<\/p>\n<p>Georgia, the SEC\u2019s back-to-back champion, is still pretty darn good, but it\u2019s not as stacked as it was a few years ago. Kirby Smart remained adamant for several years that he wouldn\u2019t throw money at guys; I\u2019m guessing that\u2019s now changed. Meanwhile, you only need to listen to Nick Saban bemoan the state of things repeatedly on TV to realize that the program started falling behind even before he retired.<\/p>\n<p>The SEC\u2019s brutal postseason came at a bad time, just as the league is about to move to a nine-game schedule. Come selection time, we will hear even more than ever how their schedules are the hardest in the history of humanity and thus all their 9-3 teams should get in. But this time, no one that\u2019s not employed by SEC Network will believe them.<\/p>\n<p>How long can Indiana stay good? Before I was an Indiana alum my family was big Michigan State fans because my sister in-law is a Sparty grad. But after Mark Dantonio, the program imploded. Is a similar fall to be expected from the Crimson and Cream? \u2014 Randell M.<\/p>\n<p>Early returns are promising. Starting with the fact Indiana is spending the money to keep this thing going.<\/p>\n<p>Within days of the Penn State job opening in October, IU made sure to lock in Curt Cignetti with a new contract worth $11.6 million annually, which at the time made him the third-highest coach in the sport behind only Kirby Smart and Ryan Day. Lane Kiffin\u2019s LSU deal bumped him to fourth, but that might not last long. The Hoosiers reaching the semifinals touched off a unique clause in Cignetti\u2019s contract that requires the school to renegotiate the deal and get him back into the top 3, or else his buyout to leave drops to $0. The number to beat is Day\u2019s $12.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>But IU\u2019s investment extends beyond the head coach. The school also gave defensive coordinator Bryant Haines a raise from $2 million to $3 million, the same amount Penn State paid Jim Knowles last year, which makes him the highest-paid coordinator in the country. Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, who was earning $1.2 million previously, has also signed a new deal, though that number hasn\u2019t been disclosed yet.<\/p>\n<p>All told, Indiana, which even two years ago was paying coach Tom Allen closer to the bottom of the Big Ten than the top, is now spending more on its head coach and two coordinators than any school in the Big Ten besides Ohio State. Wild.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Cignetti is already off to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6941050\/2026\/01\/05\/transfer-portal-updates-brendan-sorsby-sam-leavitt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">hot start in the portal<\/a>. He\u2019s landed TCU\u2019s Josh\u00a0Hoover \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6906445\/2025\/01\/04\/college-football-transfer-portal-qb-rankings-brendan-sorsby-dj-lagway-and-the-best-available\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">The Athletic\u2019s No. 4 QB in the portal<\/a> \u2014 as Fernando Mendoza\u2019s successor. Based on the current market, Hoover is likely getting $4 million to $5 million. Also: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6929115\/2025\/12\/31\/college-football-transfer-portal-player-rankings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">The Athletic\u2019s No. 2 receiver<\/a>, Michigan State\u2019s Nick Marsh; Boston College running back Turbo Richard; and Kansas State edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi.<\/p>\n<p>This is what roster-building looks like for a new-age power.<\/p>\n<p>None of this guarantees the Hoosiers will be back in national title contention next year. But Cignetti is a tremendous coach who\u2019s being given all possible resources to compete at the highest level.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-6948214 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/GettyImages-2254288466-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Fernando Mendoza lines up behind the offensive line. \" width=\"2560\" height=\"1706\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      Fernando Mendoza became the first Indiana player to win the Heisman Trophy after transferring from Cal. (Sean M. Haffey \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>How incompetent does the committee look now? They spent a month telling us Miami was a borderline Playoff team at best or not in and now they are in the semifinal. Couple that with Alabama getting in as a three-loss team that got completely destroyed. \u2014 Brian S.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not a big fan, in either football or basketball, of using postseason results as a referendum on the selections, good or bad. The committees select the fields based on how the teams performed in the regular season. They can\u2019t predict how the teams will perform in what is then essentially a brand-new season.<\/p>\n<p>I got deluged post-Rose Bowl with Notre Dame fans claiming, \u201cNotre Dame would have been more competitive with Indiana,\u201d while ignoring that Alabama had to win a game first to get there. Should Oklahoma have been out too? Also, you do realize if both Miami and Notre Dame had been in, the Canes would have been the 9 seed and the Irish the 10 seed? You\u2019re just assuming Notre Dame would have won at Texas A&amp;M \u2013 a team it previously lost to.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, I said at the time Notre Dame should have been in and Alabama out. And the main reason was the Tide\u2019s backslide over the last month of the season, losing at home to the Sooners, getting outgained by Auburn and getting killed by Georgia. Meanwhile, Notre Dame was on a 10-game winning streak and Miami had rebounded from its Louisville and SMU losses to crush its last four opponents.<\/p>\n<p>The committee isn\u2019t \u201cincompetent,\u201d but I think it should put more emphasis on how teams perform at the end of the season. I understand every game needs to matter, and it did send that message by finally moving Miami above Notre Dame, but a team\u2019s performance over the last month is much more representative of the version you\u2019re going to see in the Playoff than the one that struggled early.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart \u2014 if Ole Miss goes on to win the national championship, does Lane Kiffin get \u201cNational Champion Head Coach\u201d associated with his name? \u2014Michael M.<\/p>\n<p>Absolutely not. But I have no doubt he\u2019ll add it to his Twitter bio.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart, there are tons of fans who understandably complain about the current state of college football with NIL and transfers, but there are obviously plenty of fans who are fine with it as well. So I\u2019ve been wondering, which teams do these fans root for who are so vehemently opposed, or fine with it? \u2014 Ben<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes I feel like I\u2019m living in a twilight zone, because to me, as a neutral observer, it\u2019s so plainly obvious that NIL and the portal have improved college football as a product. Who wouldn\u2019t want a sport with more parity? Where Vanderbilt can win 10 games and Indiana and Ole Miss can go farther in the Playoff than Ohio State and Georgia?<\/p>\n<p>And yet, almost everything I hear about those subjects is overwhelmingly negative.<\/p>\n<p>But again, I\u2019m neutral. I get why these issues are more divisive if they negatively impact your own school. If I\u2019m an Alabama fan, I don\u2019t love that a program we used to thumb our nose at can now beat my school for a five-star recruit. If I\u2019m an Iowa State fan, I\u2019m pretty distraught that my coach can leave for a blue blood and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6943831\/2026\/01\/06\/college-football-transfer-portal-winners-losers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">take double-digit players with him<\/a>. And if I\u2019m a James Madison fan, I\u2019m pretty frustrated that our whole starting lineup left for a P4 payday.<\/p>\n<p>But for every school that suffers from the new system, someone else is gaining from it. Schools like Indiana\/Ole Miss\/Texas Tech\/Vanderbilt, which have spent most of their histories trapped under a low-hanging ceiling, now have a path to upward mobility. For schools that have fallen on hard times, your new coach no longer needs four years of his own recruiting classes to turn it around. And while G5 and FCS schools have to deal with P4 schools poaching their best players, they also benefit from the trickle-down of displaced P4 players.<\/p>\n<p>One thing I find fascinating about the new model is that it has introduced a whole new Moneyball-esque element of strategy. No longer is recruiting just about the logo on a coach\u2019s quarter-zip or his ability to smooth-talk a guy\u2019s mom. Now it\u2019s about which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6939168\/2026\/01\/05\/transfer-portal-nil-revenue-sharing-pay\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">coaches and GMs are the shrewdest in how they value specific personnel<\/a> and how they deploy their budgets.<\/p>\n<p>No question, it\u2019s harder than before to keep up with who\u2019s staying and who\u2019s going. But it\u2019s also kind of fun. Unless of course your favorite team is getting raided.<\/p>\n<p>I have been proposing for years that players who transfer be required to reimburse schools they leave a certain amount to reflect the sunk costs such as recruiting expenses, training, meals, etc. The House settlement payments put my idea on a better legal footing. Are you hearing that UGA will have experts lined up for its litigation against <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6946649\/2026\/01\/06\/damon-wilson-transfer-missouri-georgia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Damon Wilson<\/a> to justify its position along these lines? \u2014 Tom W.<\/p>\n<p>No, I don\u2019t think anyone\u2019s bringing receipts from Wilson\u2019s training table breakfasts. But Georgia will presumably have experts lined up to assert why losing a stud pass-rusher after he\u2019s already re-upped caused $390,000 in damage to this year\u2019s team.<\/p>\n<p>I heard they\u2019re just going to show the jury tape of the Sugar Bowl.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024, Indiana came out of nowhere to make the Playoff, but then got outclassed once they got there. This year, the Hoosiers got a top QB and are back and better than ever. With Texas Tech <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6933542\/2026\/01\/04\/brendan-sorsby-texas-tech-transfer-portal-quarterback\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">getting Cincinnati\u2019s Brendan Sorsby<\/a>, could you see the Red Raiders making a similar jump next season?\u00a0 \u2014 Andrew G.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s an interesting comparison because Texas Tech is almost in the exact opposite situation as Indiana\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>While Mendoza is the face of Indiana\u2019s ascendence from \u201cgood\u201d in 2024 to \u201celite\u201d in 2025, it\u2019s not like predecessor Kurtis Rourke was holding the Hoosiers back. Last year\u2019s 11-2 team was not lacking for explosiveness on offense and was very good on the back end of its defense. It got exposed in the losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame on the offensive and defensive lines. This year\u2019s Hoosiers upgraded along the lines considerably, and it\u2019s shown in top-10 wins over Oregon, Ohio State and Alabama.<\/p>\n<p>Whereas Texas Tech\u2019s 2025 team was purposefully built along the lines of scrimmage. Its D-line in particular was dominant all season, even in that 23-0 quarterfinal loss to Oregon. But that game exposed its offensive limitations, especially at quarterback. The Red Raiders addressed that immediately in the portal by landing Sorsby, but now they have to replace all those studs on defense (David Bailey, Lee Hunter, Romello Height, Jacob Rodriguez) who helped get them to the CFP in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a tall order, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6821329\/2025\/11\/20\/texas-tech-gm-james-blanchard-portal-bio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">GM James Blanchard<\/a> had a high hit rate with this year\u2019s portal class and could well do it again. If nothing else, we know Texas Tech won\u2019t be hurting for money.<\/p>\n<p>One note on Sorsby, though. The two-year Big 12 starter is unquestionably talented and earned The Athletic\u2019s No. 1 QB rating for a reason. Statistically, he got a lot better this season (27 TDs, 5 INTs, 8.3 YPA passing, plus 580 yards and 9 TDs rushing). But I\u2019m a bit concerned that both his Cincinnati teams collapsed over the last month of the season, going a combined 0-8 in November. Obviously, that\u2019s not all the QB\u2019s fault, but his three worst performances this season were in the opener against Nebraska, and then late-season losses to Top 25 Utah and Arizona teams.<\/p>\n<p>But Mendoza himself went 9-11 as a starter at Cal. Better coaching and better supporting cast go a long way.<\/p>\n<p>Was Nebraska\u2019s decision to extend Matt Rhule a mistake in hindsight? Would Nebraska have struggled to find a replacement with this year\u2019s competition in the coaching carousel? \u2014 Mitch<\/p>\n<p>Nebraska wouldn\u2019t have fired Rhule after this season even if the buyout was $0. But that midseason extension the school gave him because \u2026 uh oh, Penn State\u2019s AD is buddies with Rhule \u2026 might be the most extreme example of a school negotiating against itself.<\/p>\n<p>I get why AD Troy Dannen was feeling bullish about Rhule at the time. Coming off the miserable Scott Frost era and Rhule\u2019s own rough first season, he ended Nebraska\u2019s eight-year bowl drought in Year 2, going 7-6, and had the Huskers off to a 6-2 start in Year 3. Losing him after the season would have been less than ideal, but nor had he reached irreplaceable status. At the time, he was still 0-7 against Top 25 foes (after going 0-11 at Baylor) and was barely a week removed from losing 24-6 at Minnesota.<\/p>\n<p>That did not stop Dannen from giving him a two-year extension through 2032 that was celebrated in Lincoln at the time for bumping Rhule\u2019s<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6763702\/2025\/10\/30\/nebraska-matt-rhule-contract-extension-penn-state\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\"> buyout to leave from $5 million to $15 million<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But that didn\u2019t tell the full story. The contract is heavily backloaded, with Rhule going from making $7.5 million this year to $12.5 million by the end, and 90 percent of it is guaranteed. So those two extra years added another $22.5 million in guaranteed money, pushing next year\u2019s buyout number above $60 million. For a coach who was 18-15 at the time, and now 19-19, after QB Dylan Raiola was lost for the season and the Huskers\u2019 defense imploded down the stretch in three blowout losses.<\/p>\n<p>Adding insult to injury, it turned out that Rhule <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6883042\/2025\/12\/12\/penn-state-search-james-franklin-matt-campbell\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">was never a serious candidate at Penn State<\/a>, based on my colleague Ralph Russo\u2019s reporting. And Raiola, once the great hope, went in the portal.<\/p>\n<p>Rhule, now coming off back-to-back 7-6 seasons, would ordinarily enter Year 4 on the hot seat, but I don\u2019t see Nebraska paying $60 million-plus to fire its coach even if the bottom falls out. All it can do is hope Rhule signs one heck of a portal class and gets over the seven-win hump.<\/p>\n<p>I recall a leading sports pundit opine in his seminal treatise entitled \u201cBowls, Polls, and Tattered Souls\u201d that college football is inherently cyclical. I imagine that some \u2014 perhaps even the pundit himself \u2014 wondered whether that was still true in the modern game, but I also imagine that the current season reinforces the original argument. \u2014 Mo H.<\/p>\n<p>Yes indeed, way back in 2007, I assured everyone the SEC\u2019s dominance would not continue indefinitely because college football is cyclical.<\/p>\n<p>It only took a decade and a half to prove I was right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There was a clip going around this week from when Larry David\u2019s character said in the season 10&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":661425,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[930,331,7,450,4725,7211,2972,49,48,4604,4732,7207,4721],"class_list":{"0":"post-661424","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-alabama-crimson-tide","9":"tag-college-football","10":"tag-football","11":"tag-georgia-bulldogs","12":"tag-indiana-hoosiers","13":"tag-lsu-tigers","14":"tag-miami-hurricanes","15":"tag-ncaa","16":"tag-ncaa-football","17":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","18":"tag-notre-dame-fighting-irish","19":"tag-ole-miss-rebels","20":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115854520071774178","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/661424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=661424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/661424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/661425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=661424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=661424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=661424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}