Who said anything about a \u201cNo Fun League\u201d? The wild-card round features two coin-flip matchups, five of six games with spreads smaller than five points and the biggest possible upset has already happened once this season. The field has first-timers, redemption chances for first-round failures, two games between historic rivals and the Carolina Panthers. What\u2019s not to love?<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcfa What to Watch \ud83d\udcfaRams at Panthers\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Panthers plumbed the depths of absurdity one last time and managed to make the playoffs despite losing what should have been an elimination game. Saved by the NFC South\u2019s abhorrence of normality, Carolina heads to the postseason with a losing record, a negative turnover margin and minus-69 point differential.<\/p>\n
This team, which cannot pressure opposing passers or protect its own, faces a Los Angeles Rams team that excels at both of those things, as well as many others that the Panthers do not. But the Rams have already lost this matchup once, which is partly why they must suffer the indignity of having to travel cross-country as a wild card to face a team they\u2019re favored to beat by two possessions.<\/p>\n
But (this is the Panthers, there is always a but), Carolina has been double-digit underdogs twice this season and won both games straight up. Other teams facing those odds went 0-30. The Rams were one of those double-digit favorites, and the Panthers\u2019 recipe for miracle-making could work a second time. Or at the very least, allow them to cover.<\/p>\n
The Rams put Matthew Stafford under center more this season than any other quarterback in the past five years, using their strong run game to set up a devastating play-action attack. No team ran more play-action than Los Angeles (36.5 percent), and Stafford threw 20 touchdowns and one pick when doing so, averaging more than 100 yards passing per game from play-action passes alone.<\/p>\n
Well, wouldn\u2019t know you know it? The one thing the Panthers can do is stop play-action. Carolina has a 60 percent defensive success rate against it, leading the NFL and allowing a league-low 5.6 yards per play. Making play action a chore means more shotgun formations, and that\u2019s where Stafford makes his mistakes. Seven of his eight interceptions this season came out of the gun, including both times the Panthers picked him in Week 13.<\/p>\n
One of those was a pick-six, and combined with a 164-yard rushing day and one of the best games of Bryce Young\u2019s season, the Panthers defied the oddsmakers. But all of those things went right, and they still only won by three points. Expecting another upset is a bad bet, especially in the playoffs.<\/p>\n
The Rams live here. The Panthers got lost on the way to the offseason and ended up in a strange neighborhood.<\/p>\n
But 10 points? If Carolina can force Stafford to work out of the gun, run the ball to shorten the game, and Young posts a clean sheet, 10 points is doable.<\/p>\n
Packers at Bears<\/p>\n
Imagine going on the best first date of your life, and after the check is paid and goodbye hugs are had, you step out of the restaurant into an open manhole. If Bears fans had to choose between that and Ben Johnson\u2019s triumphant debut season ending with a first-round loss to the Packers, they\u2019d leap into the sewer before you finished the question.<\/p>\n
From a football standpoint, a third game with Green Bay is preferable for Chicago over a rematch with the 49ers. Micah Parsons is not in the picture, Josh Jacobs hasn\u2019t been healthy since Week 11, Jordan Love hasn\u2019t played since his concussion in Week 16 in Chicago and backup quarterback Malik Willis is nursing hamstring and shoulder injuries.<\/p>\n
Love will be back in action, but a maniacally hostile crowd, combined with three weeks of rust (thanks to a brain injury), could justifiably affect his rhythm. Chicago\u2019s defense feeds on quarterbacks who are off, even just a little, turning minor errors into a league-leading 23 interceptions. Though Love was nearly perfect in their first meeting, his flaw has always been his pursuit of the \u201choly sh-t\u201d play, taking the kind of unnecessary risks the Bears hunt like truffle pigs. But if he ignores his lesser angels, the 27-year-old has shown there\u2019s not much Chicago can do to stop him other than try to keep up on the other side of the ball.<\/p>\n
For that, the Bears will need a bounce-back from their run game after Week 18. Chicago leads the NFL in rushing success rate (48.5 percent) and trails only Buffalo and Baltimore in explosive runs (67). Caleb Williams has come a long way, but his inexplicable accuracy lapses can be crippling if the passing game has to carry the entire load. Luckily for the Bears, the Packers have allowed nearly 100 more rushing yards per game without Parsons, in addition to sacking quarterbacks less than half as often. If the ground game gets going early, it could very well carry Chicago into the second round, helped by a crowd ravenous for back-to-back wins over the Packers for the first time in nearly 20 years.<\/p>\n
Bills at Jaguars<\/p>\n
This lines up to be the most entertaining game of the slate, thanks to the following mixture:<\/p>\n
An immovable object\/unstoppable force setup: The Bills are the only NFL team to run for more than 200 yards four different times this season, averaging a league-leading 159.6 yards per game. The Jaguars allow the fewest rush yards per game (85.6), held 12 of their 17 opponents under 100 yards and allowed more than 130 once. These types of standoffs are always fun, like watching the two biggest guys in the room arm wrestle.<\/p>\n
Chaos quarterbacks: Josh Allen needs no introduction, but this version of Trevor Lawrence does. He hit 4,000 yards again, this time throwing a career-high 29 touchdowns and closing the season with 19 total scores to one turnover in the last six games. His 359 rushing yards and nine rushing scores are both career bests, and with more than 300 scramble yards, he\u2019s frustrated defenses by extending plays and scampering for 18 first downs. As for Allen, his fourth-quarter performance this season has been legendary. In the final frame, the MVP leads all quarterbacks in passing yards (1,114), rushing yards (222) and total touchdowns (14). He has 20 fourth-quarter completions of at least 20 yards, another league best. No player does more damage down the stretch, and it has resulted in the Bills delivering thrilling finishes all year.<\/p>\n
Odd x-factors: For the Jaguars, it\u2019s penalties. Jacksonville has been flagged 128 times this season for more than 1,000 yards. The bulk of those are on the offense, with false starts and holding accounting for nearly half, but the defense is responsible for more than 400 penalized yards. If there\u2019s one thing you cannot do in the playoffs, it\u2019s undermine your own offense. If there\u2019s one person you should not give free yardage or second chances to, it\u2019s Allen.<\/p>\n
Speaking of Allen, it\u2019s time to talk about the road again. The Bills have been to seven straight postseasons, but Allen has never won a playoff game outside of Buffalo. Since returning to the postseason in 2017, the Bills have scored five fewer points and allowed nearly 10 more points on the road.<\/p>\n
49ers at Eagles<\/p>\n
If you watched Week 17 and wondered why the 49ers weren\u2019t Super Bowl favorites, Week 18 showcased their flaws. San Francisco couldn\u2019t run the ball (53 yards), allowed a 47 percent pressure rate, failed to stop the run (180 yards allowed) and struggled to make plays in the secondary. And the reason, once again, was injuries. Trent Williams was absent from the offensive line, and Ricky Pearsall was missing in the receiver corps. They lost three linebackers during the game, including Tatum Bethune for the season.<\/p>\n
Granted, Seattle is an elite team, but the Niners will face similar challenges against an Eagles defense with a muscular front and creative blitz packages. Vic Fangio has mastered the art of sending extra rushers, getting pressure on blitzes 46.2 percent of the time while calling them at the lowest rate in the league. Williams is expected to return, which should help protect Brock Purdy, but running the ball won\u2019t be any easier against the Eagles. For all of Kyle Shanahan\u2019s creativity, if the Niners don\u2019t have the preferred personnel available, Philly can lean on their tried-and-true strategy of letting the defense smother opponents while the offense plods along, chewing clock.<\/p>\n
At their best, the 49ers play loose, creative football that leans into improvisation. It\u2019s necessitated by a depleted roster (220 games missed by players on IR this year), but it certainly seems like they have fun doing it. The Eagles don\u2019t do any of that, and haven\u2019t seemed to enjoy much of their time together this year. If Shanahan can outscheme Fangio early, his Niners could take the momentum and ride their never-say-die adrenaline to a lead. If they force Jalen Hurts to throw, they even the odds considerably. But if the Eagles can stifle that offensive joy, they\u2019ll run Saquon Barkley on repeat and let the defense sit on S.F.\u2019s chest until the clock hits zero. That\u2019s the Philadelphia way, and while it leaves everyone kind of sad, it\u2019s undeniably effective.<\/p>\n
Chargers at Patriots<\/p>\n
The relatively narrow spread here can be explained by the fact that a lot of the Patriots are headed to the playoffs for the first time.<\/p>\n
Granted, the Chargers\u2019 experience hasn\u2019t been positive, but experienced rosters tend to play more composed in such games, even if held together by surgical screws and athletic tape. Budding MVP or not, Drake Maye is still 23 years old and carrying the expectations of a fan base used to unmitigated success when they have a star quarterback.<\/p>\n
Los Angeles is free from all that, since their recent postseason work engenders no expectations at all. In their defense, they shared a division with the dynastic Chiefs, so the tunnel never really had much light at the end of it. Still, Justin Herbert has been atrocious in the playoffs the two times he\u2019s made it.<\/p>\n
Regular seasonPlayoffs<\/p>\n
Completion rate<\/p>\n
67%<\/p>\n
52%<\/p>\n
Passer rating<\/p>\n
96.3<\/p>\n
60.7<\/p>\n
EPA\/dropback<\/p>\n
0.09<\/p>\n
-0.18<\/p>\n
In last year\u2019s appearance, he threw more picks in the wild-card game (four) than he threw all season (three), so it\u2019s safe to say he doesn\u2019t have the pressure of outsized projections. The Patriots provide an avenue for redemption, as their pass defense is in the bottom 10 in opponent passer rating and completion percentage, and they\u2019re in the bottom half of the league in converting pressure into sacks. The Chargers have played without an offensive line for much of the season, and are good at working around it, so if Herbert shows up, their offense should be fine.<\/p>\n
A quick punch to the mouth could stun the young Pats, and L.A.\u2019s best shot is to force New England to keep up rather than dictate terms.<\/p>\n
Texans at Steelers<\/p>\n
Home-field advantage seems to be doing a lot of work, since the Steelers appear outmatched to a degree that warrants a bigger spread. While Pittsburgh has done an excellent job of protecting 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, the Houston pass rush has more ferocity than any they\u2019ve experienced to date. Will Anderson Jr. has generated 47 pressures on third down alone, more than any player in the last seven years. He\u2019s paired with Danielle Hunter, and the duo leads the NFL with more than 150 pressures by themselves. The Texans turn 22.5 percent of their pressures into sacks, allowing a paltry 2.8 yards of separation when quarterbacks are under duress (third-best).<\/p>\n
Rodgers faces the least amount of pressure by a wide margin, but when he does, he\u2019s sacked 25 percent of the time. For comparison, Caleb Williams saw 201 pressures compared to Rodgers\u2019 116, and took five fewer sacks.<\/p>\n
The Steelers have no downfield threat outside of DK Metcalf, subsisting instead on quick runs and passes to their running back tandem of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. While that has been the best strategy available, the Texans have the third-stingiest run defense and a linebacking group allowing -.31 EPA per pass to backfield targets.<\/p>\n
On the other side of the ball, C.J. Stroud is hunting a 3-0 record in wild-card games, having posted a 66.7 and 76.2 percent completion rate in the previous two. He\u2019ll have to be sharp because of Houston\u2019s terribly inefficient run game, but given Pittsburgh\u2019s preference for man coverage and their tendency to miss tackles (third-highest rate in the league), Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz should be more than viable options all game.<\/p>\n
Wild-card picks<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Who said anything about a \u201cNo Fun League\u201d? The wild-card round features two coin-flip matchups, five of six…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":663563,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2075],"tags":[235,260,2567,7,6,236,5433],"class_list":{"0":"post-663562","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-carolina-panthers","8":"tag-carolina","9":"tag-carolina-panthers","10":"tag-carolinapanthers","11":"tag-football","12":"tag-nfl","13":"tag-panthers","14":"tag-sports-betting"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115859085409959848","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}