If it\u2019s true that defense wins championships, the Houston Texans should be feeling pretty good.<\/p>\n
The divisional round includes a fascinating strength vs. strength matchup. The Texans\u2019 defense is excellent. It allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this season. That group will face a New England Patriots offense led by Drake Maye, who along with Matthew Stafford are the two clear frontrunners for NFL MVP. Even if Stafford wins MVP, it doesn\u2019t take away from how good Maye has been in his second season.<\/p>\n
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The Patriots have had a huge breakout season, including their first playoff win since Tom Brady led a Super Bowl win over the Los Angeles Rams. They went 14-3 after winning just four games each of the past two seasons. For those who were reveling over the Patriots\u2019 decline after a long dynasty, their dip didn\u2019t last long.<\/p>\n
The Texans have never experienced success like those great Patriots teams. Houston has never been to the AFC championship game in its 24 seasons of existence. The Texans are 0-6 in the divisional round and each loss was by at least seven points. They\u2019re hoping this defense takes them further than they\u2019ve ever been in franchise history.<\/p>\n
Previous meeting this season<\/p>\n
The Texans and Patriots did not play this season and have faced off just once since 2021. That was a 41-21 Texans win during the 2024 season.<\/p>\n
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Health update<\/p>\n
The big name on the injury report for either team is Texans receiver Nico Collins,<\/a> who suffered a concussion on Monday night and hasn\u2019t practiced yet this week. He is unlikely to play, which is a big blow to Houston\u2019s offense. Collins had 1,117 receiving yards in the regular season and no other Texans receiver had more than 525. The other big question was Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez<\/a>, who is also coming off a concussion but returned to practice Wednesday and is expected to play.<\/p>\n The head coaches<\/p>\n This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans has completely turned around the Texans. He\u2019s 32-19 in his three seasons as Houston\u2019s head coach, and his influence is seen on the Texans\u2019 top-ranked defense. Mike Vrabel could win NFL Coach of the Year for the second time in his career. His first one came when he was coaching the Titans, and he has done a magnificent job in his first season in New England. These are two of the best motivators and defensive minds among the NFL\u2019s head-coaching ranks.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Key player for the Texans<\/p>\n Nico Collins is likely to miss Sunday\u2019s game, and the Texans aren\u2019t a top-end offense even with Collins in the lineup. Houston will need someone to step up. Last week it was rookie running back Woody Marks. Marks rushed for 112 yards in a wild-card win over the Steelers. Marks has had a solid rookie season but that was his first game of more than 74 rushing yards. The Patriots are strong against the run and the pass, but without Collins it seems likely the Texans will need to generate a run game to get their offense going. Marks will be the focal point of that effort.<\/p>\n Key player for the Patriots<\/p>\n There aren\u2019t many weak spots for the Texans\u2019 defense. But tight ends have been productive against them recently. Over the last seven weeks Houston has allowed a passer rating of 123.8 when tight ends are targeted, according to NBC Sports Boston<\/a>. That\u2019s the ninth-highest mark in the NFL over that time. Hunter Henry had already been a big part of New England\u2019s passing game. He was second on the Patriots with 768 receiving yards in the regular season and he led the team with seven receiving touchdowns. He scored the only Patriots touchdown in the wild-card round. He will be involved often on Sunday.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Betting market watch<\/p>\n The Patriots opened as 2.5-point home favorites at many sportsbooks, but the line has moved to -3 across the board, with a few -3.5s even popping up. Houston WR Nico Collins has yet to practice due a concussion suffered against the Steelers last week, and could miss the game. Drake Maye had some concerning mistakes in last week’s win against the Chargers \u2014 was it a sign of things to come or a blip in what’s been a potential MVP campaign? C.J. Stroud also didn’t inspire confidence last week against the Steelers (five fumbles), but does have more playoff experience than Maye. Houston’s defense is good enough to win this game, but I think they come up a bit short without Collins. \u2014 Ben Fawkes<\/p>\n