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A less local way to rank the remaining eight teams? By some historical facts that relate to their Super Bowl chances. In order of most to least convincing:<\/p>\n
In three tries as a top seed so far, the No. 1\u00a0Seahawks\u00a0have never missed the Super Bowl (and never made it as any other seed). Also, half of the past eight Super Bowl teams were No. 1 seeds. That all said, history doesn\u2019t play these games.<\/p>\n Next: The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0reporters explain how the teams they cover can win this weekend, plus Ted Nguyen breaks down a crucial matchup in Denver.<\/p>\n This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic\u2019s NFL newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive it directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n How each NFL team wins divisional round<\/p>\n A brutal dose of reality: After Sunday, it\u2019ll be over 230 days until more than two NFL games are played in a weekend.<\/p>\n The good news? We\u2019ve got an amazing slate.\u00a0To prep, I went directly to\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s invaluable reporters, asking how their respective teams might win this weekend. Here\u2019s what they told me, with related stories linked:<\/p>\n Bills at Broncos (-1)<\/p>\n Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Bills win if: \u201cThey help Josh Allen with a\u00a0more effective run game<\/a>\u00a0than what they showed against the Jaguars. They also need to get pressure on Bo Nix with their defensive tackles.\u201d \u2014 Joe Buscaglia<\/p>\n The Broncos win if: \u201cThey can produce consistently on the ground against Buffalo\u2019s 30th-ranked rush defense. Denver must exploit the Bills\u2019 weakness consistently enough to stay in manageable second- and third-down situations that allow Sean Payton to access a wider swath of his playbook.\u201d \u2014 Nick Kosmider, who co-authored our\u00a0full game preview<\/a>.<\/p>\n Over to Ted Nguyen for a matchup to watch in Denver.<\/p>\n What Ted\u2019s Seeing: Buffalo\u2019s advantage<\/p>\n Aside from Josh Allen\u2019s ability to create off-script plays, there are a few ways the Bills offense matches up favorably against the Broncos defense. Keep an eye on Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who could exploit the Broncos linebackers.<\/p>\n The Broncos defense specializes in taking away outside receivers with cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss, and of course, that will be an issue for the Bills.\u00a0But Buffalo\u00a0doesn\u2019t rely on their outside receivers<\/a>\u00a0winning at a high rate\u00a0to move the ball.<\/p>\n Instead, the Bills move the ball through their running backs and tight ends.\u00a0Buffalo ranked fifth in receiving yards to those positions this season, and\u00a0took advantage of Denver\u2019s linebackers in this matchup last season.<\/p>\n The Broncos have given up the ninth-most yards to tight ends this season, and their linebackers don\u2019t play man coverage at a high level. Even strong safety Talanoa Hufanga, elite in so many areas, is weaker in man coverage.<\/p>\n Buffalo\u2019s tight ends should be a major factor. They combined for seven catches for 101 yards in this matchup last postseason, and while Kincaid has missed several games this year, he\u2019s improved as a player.\u00a0The Bills should have a similar game plan to last year\u2019s playoff game and target Kincaid often.<\/p>\n For more: I covered key matchups to watch in\u00a0Seahawks-49ers and Bears-Rams<\/a>, along with\u00a0Patriots-Texans and more Broncos-Bills<\/a>. Back to you, Jacob.<\/p>\n 49ers at Seahawks (-7)<\/p>\n Saturday at 8 p.m. on FOX.<\/p>\n The 49ers win if: \u201cThey handle Seattle\u2019s running game, like they did against the Falcons, Colts and Eagles this season. Their Week 18 game against the Seahawks was a different story.\u201d\u00a0 \u2014 Matt Barrows<\/p>\n They\u2019ll also need: \u201cChristian McCaffrey to get 25 touches<\/a>. They need him to run the ball \u2014 or get short throws to him \u2014 to get the Seahawks to not play so deep, which could open opportunities in the passing game.\u201d \u2014 Vic Tafur<\/p>\n Seattle wins if: \u201cSam Darnold protects the ball. Seattle had a top-three offense by points per game, but also finished second in turnovers (28), with a league-high 20 coming from Darnold. Giveaways are all that can stop Seattle from being great.\u00a0His teammates aren\u2019t worried<\/a>.\u201d \u2014 Michael-Shawn Dugar<\/p>\n Also:\u00a0Darnold is questionable<\/a>, but expects to play.<\/p>\n Texans at Patriots (-2.5)<\/p>\n Sunday at 3 p.m. on ABC\/ESPN.<\/p>\n The Texans win if: \u201cTheir\u00a0elite defense can harass Drake Maye<\/a>\u00a0and get off of the field on third downs, while C.J. Stroud needs to take care of the football.\u201d \u2014 Mike Jones<\/p>\n The Patriots win if: \u201cThey can protect Maye. The task is tough for an\u00a0offensive line with two rookies<\/a>. The Texans defensive line is the best in the league, but if the Patriots can give Maye time, they should be playing in the AFC championship.\u201d \u2014 Chad Graff<\/p>\n Rams (-3.5) at Bears<\/p>\n Sunday at 6:30 p.m. on NBC\/Peacock.<\/p>\n The Rams win if: \u201cThey can avoid a special teams disaster. Special teams issues have arguably cost the Rams three wins this season and nearly did so in the wild-card round, when they\u00a0allowed a blocked punt<\/a>\u00a0in the fourth quarter. The Rams believe that was a personnel issue, but it won\u2019t get easier in a raucous, cold and windy Soldier Field.\u201d \u2014 Nate Atkins<\/p>\n The Bears win if: \u201cThey can steal a possession. That Rams offense is so potent, and the\u00a0Bears defense gives up a lot of big plays<\/a>, so they will need to create a takeaway or turnover on downs to keep up.\u201d \u2014 Kevin Fishbain<\/p>\n Also: \u201cThe Bears topped the NFL during the regular season in takeaways and had the fewest giveaways, plus were No. 1 in the NFC in rushing offense. Keep an eye on their ability to lean into their late-game magic.\u201d \u2014 Dan Wiederer<\/p>\n Extra Points<\/p>\n \ud83c\udfaf\u00a0One underdog\u00a0wins this weekend, per Vic Tafur\u2019s\u00a0playoff picks against the spread<\/a>. Hint: It\u2019s not the Bears.<\/p>\n \u26a0\ufe0f\u00a0The Eagles\u2019 problems\u00a0on offense went beyond fired coordinator Kevin Patullo, as Michael Silver details in his story on\u00a0what went wrong in Philly<\/a>.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcd1\u00a0It seems dangerous\u00a0for playoff coordinators like Seattle\u2019s Klint Kubiak to also be coaching candidates, as it might cost prep time. Jourdan Rodrigue explains\u00a0how they balance a loaded schedule<\/a>.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udc40 Hope for Shedeur Sanders?\u00a0The underlying metrics were awful for the Browns rookie. Jason Lloyd details\u00a0everything Sanders could fix<\/a> to remain a starter in the NFL.<\/p>\n \u25b6\ufe0f Yesterday\u2019s most-clicked:\u00a0How could you not be curious about Mike Tomlin\u2019s\u00a0final team meeting in Pittsburgh<\/a>? Also, I promise you won\u2019t regret reading about\u00a0the pressure of punting<\/a>.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udceb Enjoyed this read? Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Athletic\u2019s free NFL newsletter in your inbox.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nThe\u00a0Rams\u2018 unstoppable offense led the league in points scored, yards gained and first downs. The last team to accomplish all three, the 2022 Chiefs, won the Super Bowl.
\nSince 2020, the\u00a0Bills\u00a0are\u00a08-0 in the postseason against any team without Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow. Their\u00a0disguise-heavy defense<\/a>\u00a0will face Bo Nix and, with a win, would then face one of the league\u2019s youngest starting QBs, either C.J. Stroud or Drake Maye.
\nThe\u00a0Texans\u00a0led the NFL in both point differential and turnover margin in this season\u2019s fourth quarters. The most recent teams to accomplish that combo won the Super Bowl (2020 Buccaneers and 2009 Saints).
\nThe\u00a0Patriots were just the 12th team in league history to finish undefeated on the road. Eight of the previous 11 teams to accomplish that reached the Super Bowl.
\nEvery time the\u00a0Broncos\u00a0have started 10-2, they\u2019ve made the Super Bowl (1989, 1997, 2013 and 2015), winning twice. Guess their record through 12 games this season?
\nHistory is on the side of the 49ers, even when they\u2019re hurt. This year, they were the first team since their own 1988 edition to open a season with road wins by two different starting quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and Mac Jones). Joe Montana and Steve Young\u2019s Niners won the Super Bowl that year.
\nThe\u00a0Bears?\u00a0Anything is possible for\u00a0a clutch quarterback<\/a> on a team that just scored 25 points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game (that hasn\u2019t happened this century).<\/p>\n