{"id":684562,"date":"2026-01-17T16:58:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T16:58:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/684562\/"},"modified":"2026-01-17T16:58:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T16:58:16","slug":"nfl-division-round-betting-odds-picks-dfs-plays-for-rams-bears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/684562\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL division round betting: Odds, picks, DFS plays for Rams-Bears"},"content":{"rendered":"


The Chicago Bears<\/a> welcome the Los Angeles Rams<\/a> to a frigid Soldier Field on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Caleb Williams<\/a>, Kyle Monangai<\/a> & Co. reached the NFL’s divisional round after a comeback win over the NFC North rivalGreen Bay Packers<\/a>.Matthew Stafford<\/a>, Davante Adams<\/a> and the Rams won a close game in Carolina last week. The Rams are +320 to win the Super Bowl heading into the divisional round, second best in the league.<\/p>\n

In a game where we should see a bunch of points, let’s break down the offensive tendencies and playmakers on both squads, giving you the best bets to place.<\/p>\n

ESPN’s team of experts will get you ready for kickoff. Matt Bowen breaks down both teams and offers his takeaways, while Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.<\/p>\n

Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>and subject to change.<\/p>\n

When the Rams have the ball<\/p>\n

Bowen:The run game with Kyren Williams<\/a> and Blake Corum<\/a> gives the Rams the ability to establish offensive tempo, but it also leads to both boot and play-action throws for quarterback Matthew Stafford<\/a>. Coach Sean McVay can open voids for Stafford to deliver the ball in rhythm, which also creates volume for No. 1 receiver Puka Nacua<\/a>. And when the Rams do move the ball into the red zone, Davante Adams<\/a> is still a matchup advantage versus one-on-one coverage.<\/p>\n

Edge:Rams<\/p>\n

Best bet:Puka Nacua OVER 7.5 receptions (-116). Nacua has at least 10 receptions in three of his past four games, and he’ll get positive matchups versus the Bears’ secondary, plus free access off the ball in McVay’s system.<\/p>\n

When the Bears have the ball<\/p>\n

Bowen:I expect the Bears to lean on their multiple tight end sets, gaining numbers on the ground for backsD’Andre Swift<\/a>and Kyle Monangai<\/a>, while also creating matchups in the pass game for quarterback Caleb Williams<\/a>. Rookie tight end Colston Loveland<\/a> has emerged as a multilevel target for Williams, and the Bears also feature versatility on the perimeter with receivers DJ Moore<\/a>, Rome Odunze<\/a> and Luther Burden III<\/a>. Plus, Williams’ ability to play off schedule is a conflict creator for a Rams secondary lacking high-end speed.<\/p>\n

Edge:Bears<\/p>\n

Best bet:Luther Burden III OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-111). Burden, who has topped the 40-yard receiving mark in four of his past five games, will see the ball on schemed touches, and he has the open-field ability to slither through defensive pursuit angles after the catch.<\/p>\n

Staff picks, best bets and props<\/p>\n

Rams -4.5 (-102)<\/p>\n

Maldonado: The Rams bring the No. 1 passing grade against a Bears defense that struggles to generate pressure and ranks near the bottom in coverage efficiency. That’s a bad combination against Matthew Stafford<\/a> especially, since the Rams can win up front and stay out of long yardage situations. Chicago’s path to win has relied heavily on fourth-quarter variance and takeaways, but the Rams are one of the best teams in the league at avoiding negative plays. If L.A. plays from in front, this spread gets uncomfortable for the Bears quick.<\/p>\n

Total points OVER 48.5 (-110)<\/p>\n

Solak: The total has fallen significantly, as temperatures in the single digits are possible Sunday night. It’s reasonable to have some doubt about a Los Angeles team traveling from its climate-controlled environment to the open air at Soldier Field. But over the past 20 years, games under 20 degrees have seen 1.82 points per drive scored; the league average over that same time span is 1.87. Without precipitation, the cold weather has some effect, but not enough for three points of movement. I’ve got two uberexplosive passing offenses against two suspect pass defenses, and I want the over.<\/p>\n

Walder: It’s hard for me not to imagine points here. I love betting the over in Bears games because whether you believe in Caleb Williams<\/a>, the team has great pass protection with an elite play designer and a boom-or-bust defense. If we look at all teams on their non-turnover plays, Chicago’s defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play. And they are going up against the team that has, in ESPN’s Football Power Index’s view, the best offense in football.<\/p>\n

Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 INTs (+104)<\/p>\n

Loza: The Bears led the league in interceptions, registering 23 over the regular season. Stafford will be playing with a hurt finger and in frigid conditions. The 37-year-old is getting picked at least once.<\/p>\n

Matthew Stafford 40+ yard completion (+100)<\/p>\n

Moody: Stafford has one of the most dynamic wide receiver duos in the league with Nacua and Adams. The Bears’ secondary has been eviscerated all season, allowing the second-most completions of 20-plus yards while also surrendering nine completions of at least 40 yards. With Chicago consistently giving up explosive plays, Stafford is well-positioned to connect on a deep shot in this matchup.<\/p>\n

Luther Burden III<\/a> OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-111)<\/p>\n

Moody: Burden has cleared this line in four of his past five games and has averaged 6.6 targets per game over that stretch. The Rams’ secondary has struggled throughout the second half of the season, a weakness that was on full display in the wild-card round when the Rams allowed 215 combined receiving yards to Tetairoa McMillan<\/a> and Jalen Coker<\/a>. The combination of usage and matchup puts Burden in a favorable spot here.<\/p>\n

Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown<\/p>\n

Loza’s recommendations<\/p>\n

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua<\/a> ($18,000). I could get cute here and go with Davante Adams<\/a> for less money, but let’s be real. Nacua has posted triple-digit receiving yardage totals in 7 of 17 games played, and he had found the end zone eight times since Week 14. His elite after-the-catch ability makes him a difference-maker worth paying up for.<\/p>\n

Also in my lineup: D’Andre Swift<\/a> ($8,000) figures to emerge as a short-range safety valve for Caleb Williams<\/a> while facing a salty Rams defensive line that’s intent on bringing pressure. Swift averaged nearly 19 receiving yards per game during the regular season (RB13). Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense surrendered the sixth-most catches and the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Maldonado’s recommendations<\/p>\n

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Matthew Stafford<\/a> ($15,900) will have clean pockets, and giving him heavy play-action opportunities sets up chunk gains and multi-touchdown upside.<\/p>\n

Also in my lineup: Puka Nacua ($12,000) will capture Stafford’s efficiency, dominating target share and thriving against zone looks while benefiting from the Bears’ inability to contest intermediate throws. His volume plus YAC profile screams big game.<\/p>\n

Moody’s recommendations<\/p>\n

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Matthew Stafford ($15,900) averaged 278.4 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game this season, including the playoffs. The Bears finished the regular season ranked inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, making this a favorable matchup. Stafford profiles as a strong foundational piece to build showdown lineups around.<\/p>\n

Also in my lineup: Colston Loveland<\/a> ($5,500) has scored at least 21 fantasy points and seen six or more targets in three consecutive games. The Rams are a middle-of-the-road defense against tight ends, setting Loveland up well in what should be a high-scoring matchup.<\/p>\n

Walder’s recommendations<\/p>\n

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Luther Burden III<\/a> ($8,400). First and foremost, I think this will be a points bonanza, so I’m looking for a captain that allows me to squeeze Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams and one of the Rams’ top two receivers into one lineup. Burden satisfies that requirement, but I also think he’s becoming a key focal point for the Bears’ offense, with a 29% target rate over his past four games. There’s more upside with Burden than many of the other cheaper players, I think.<\/p>\n

Also in my lineup: Matthew Stafford ($10,600). I just want to bet against that Chicago defense, and fitting Stafford into the lineup is the broadest bet against them. He has more passing touchdown upside than the average quarterback because of how effective he has been throwing to Davante Adams there all year.br\/]<\/p>\n

Copyright \u00a9 2026 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Chicago Bears welcome the Los Angeles Rams to a frigid Soldier Field on Sunday. Caleb Williams, Kyle…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":684563,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2079],"tags":[100019,26098,1107,50613,391,12,7,1014,58,2444,2611,11958,86336,54253,54254,6,424,60818,76221,18097,24281],"class_list":["post-684562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles-rams","tag-100019","tag-adams-davante","tag-betting","tag-burden-iii-luther","tag-chicago-bears","tag-espn","tag-football","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-losangeles","tag-losangelesrams","tag-loveland-colston","tag-nacua-puka","tag-news-nfl","tag-news-sports-betting","tag-nfl","tag-rams","tag-stafford-matthew","tag-swift-dandre","tag-williams-caleb","tag-williams-kyren"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115911504969824983","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}