Welcome, football fans who are finally pivoting to college hoops. Come on in. The water\u2019s fine.<\/p>\n
To ease you in, this week\u2019s 12 thoughts start in a familiar place:<\/p>\n
Is there a college basketball equivalent of Indiana football?<\/p>\n
1. You\u2019ve almost certainly heard by now, but when Curt Cignetti arrived in November 2023 in Bloomington, he inherited the losingest major program in college football history. Prior to his arrival \u2014 and this season\u2019s stunning run to the national title \u2014 IU had won three postseason games, ever. That sordid history is what makes Indiana football one of the best stories in American sports history.<\/p>\n
So, who\u2019s the hoops equivalent? And is it realistic for any basketball program to dream of a Cignetti-like moonshot? You tell me, after a scan of the 10 losingest high-major hoops programs:<\/p>\n
Teamwin-loss percentageBest NCAA Tournament finish<\/p>\n
0.423<\/p>\n
Round of 32 (2017, 2023, 2024)<\/p>\n
0.473<\/p>\n
Round of 32 (1987, 2022, 2023)<\/p>\n
0.502<\/p>\n
Sweet 16 (2001, 2025)<\/p>\n
0.508<\/p>\n
Round of 32 (2021)<\/p>\n
0.512<\/p>\n
Round of 32 (2019)<\/p>\n
0.514<\/p>\n
NCAA champions (2021)<\/p>\n
0.515<\/p>\n
Elite Eight (2000)<\/p>\n
0.517<\/p>\n
Elite Eight (2024)<\/p>\n
0.519<\/p>\n
Sweet 16 (1996)<\/p>\n
0.523<\/p>\n
Round of 64 (eight times, most recently 2024)<\/p>\n
2. That only two high-major programs are still under .500 historically was surprising, but the list is a lot of schools you might expect. Chris Collins made history in 2017 by guiding the Wildcats to their first ever NCAA Tournament berth and win, but now Northwestern is back to the Big Ten cellar. Rutgers is more known for bombing with two top-five NBA Draft picks (Dylan Harper Jr. and Ace Bailey) than anything it\u2019s accomplished in recent memory. And Georgia and TCU haven\u2019t won conference titles since before this author was born.<\/p>\n
Baylor is the outlier of all outliers. Scott Drew won it all with transfers before it was cool, with multiple members of his 2021 bubble championship team sitting out a year before leading the Bears to the promised land. But even Baylor\u2019s success hasn\u2019t insulated the program from slippage; BU hasn\u2019t advanced past the round of 32 since cutting down the nets and sits on the NCAA Tournament bubble at 11-7 and 1-5 in the Big 12.<\/p>\n
But the most interesting part about that list?<\/p>\n
3. Half of the schools have gone as far as they ever have in the NCAA Tournament since the advent of the transfer portal and NIL in the summer of 2021.<\/p>\n
That, just like IU\u2019s rise in football, signifies how different the playing field is. Hire the right coach, add the necessary resources to be competitive \u2014 and with one strong transfer portal class, voila. You, too, can build a contender overnight (or at least a team far better than the program\u2019s historic standing).<\/p>\n
4. So on that list, which school is most likely to be college hoops\u2019 version of Indiana? Baylor and Iowa State \u2014 by virtue of two Sweet 16s in three seasons and this year\u2019s 17-2 start \u2014 are disqualified. There\u2019s one overwhelming choice: The only high-major program that has never won an NCAA Tournament game.<\/p>\n
Hello, Nebraska.<\/p>\n
The No. 7 Cornhuskers, after Wednesday night\u2019s win over Washington, are 19-0 \u2014 the best start in program history \u2014 and one of three undefeated teams left in Division I, alongside No. 1 Arizona and No. 25 Miami of Ohio. And while Fred Hoiberg\u2019s team hasn\u2019t exactly played the most challenging schedule, Nebrasketball has two ranked wins (over No. 10 Michigan State and No. 11 Illinois) en route to first place in the Big Ten.<\/a><\/p>\n 5. Hoiberg didn\u2019t bring any players from the Chicago Bulls when he took over as head coach in 2020 \u2014 although maybe he should\u2019ve tried!<\/a> But he has instead wisely mined the transfer portal.<\/p>\n Four of the Huskers\u2019 top six leading scorers are transfers: Pryce Sandfort (Iowa), Rienk Mast (Bradley), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA) and Jamarques Lawrence (Rhode Island). Lawrence boomeranged back to Lincoln after starting his career with Nebraska. Then you have a key freshman, sixth man Braden Frager<\/a>, and the coach\u2019s son, Sam, who does a little bit of everything.<\/p>\n Sandfort was a borderline top-100, four-star recruit out of high school, and Buyuktuncel was a highly sought-after international player. But just like Cignetti\u2019s Indiana, this isn\u2019t a roster full of five-star talent. It\u2019s one that plays together, the way Hoiberg wants it to, and finds ways to win no matter who it\u2019s up against.<\/p>\n I won\u2019t go so far as to predict Nebraska wins the national title this season \u2014 especially in a single-elimination tournament in which the best team doesn\u2019t always win \u2014 but I do believe the Huskers can win games, plural, in the Big Dance for the first time.<\/p>\n 6. You know who else is capable of doing that? The defending national champions.<\/a><\/p>\n Don\u2019t look now, but since Christmas, Florida has the fourth-best net rating in the sport, per Bart Torvik, fueled by the nation\u2019s No. 1 offense over that stretch. (The three teams ahead of UF: Houston, Texas Tech and Virginia.)<\/p>\n Since a baffling loss at Missouri right after the new year, Todd Golden\u2019s Gators have won five straight, beating three ranked foes \u2014 Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt \u2014 in the process. Including Tuesday\u2019s 79-61 win over LSU, Florida is averaging 91.2 points per game over its past five.<\/p>\n So what changed? Florida\u2019s shooting has been marginally better, but not much; the Gators are still making only 29.5 percent of their 3s since Christmas. Golden has mitigated UF\u2019s shooting woes by balancing the numbers elsewhere. On the offensive glass, namely.<\/p>\n Since Christmas, Florida is gobbling up an absurd 44.4 percent of available offensive rebounds, best in the nation. No surprise, then, that UF leads the nation in second-chance points with 17.5 per game, per CBB Analytics. And there\u2019s one man in particular leading the Gators\u2019 rebound. (Pun intended.)<\/p>\n 7. Rueben Chinyelu was an every-game starter on Florida\u2019s title team, but mostly served as a rebounding force and screener for the Gators\u2019 dominant guards. He averaged 5.3 points and seven rebounds per game in last year\u2019s NCAA Tournament.<\/p>\n But during UF\u2019s current winning streak, Chinyelu has played like a man possessed. He\u2019s averaging 16.2 points and 12.6 rebounds per game over that stretch \u2014 double his season-long averages last year \u2014 while making two-thirds of his shots. That includes his first career 20-point game, against Vanderbilt, and his second 20-rebound game this season, against LSU.<\/p>\n At 6 feet 10 and 265 pounds, Chinyelu can score on dump-offs at the rim, putback tips, alley-oops and via his rapidly-improving dropstep. But there\u2019s no more lethal shot in Chinyelu\u2019s bag than his hook shot over his left shoulder. Thirteen of Chinyelu\u2019s 32 made shots over the past five games (40.6 percent) have been that hook, per Synergy, not to mention several foul calls because of it.<\/p>\n And increasingly, Chinyelu\u2019s becoming comfortable taking those shots on the move, too. (Familiar spacing, huh?)<\/p>\n That\u2019s a scary proposition for the rest of the SEC, and the nation. KenPom now projects Florida to win the SEC by multiple games.<\/p>\n 8. The Athletic\u2019s midseason All-America team<\/a> dropped this week, which means it\u2019s also #SnubSZN. I was surprised that Houston\u2019s Kingston Flemings, whom I voted for, didn\u2019t make either team, but was more shocked at a few players not earning any votes:<\/p>\n \u2022 Darius Acuff Jr., freshman guard, Arkansas: John Calipari\u2019s latest freshman sensation is averaging 19.6 points, 6.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game while shooting 41 percent from 3 and 80.5 percent from the free-throw line.<\/p>\n \u2022 Christian Anderson, sophomore guard, Texas Tech: The only player in the nation averaging at least 20 points and seven assists per game, he\u2019s been at his best in the Red Raiders\u2019 biggest games, against Duke and BYU. He\u2019s also one of just eight high-major players shooting above 45 percent from 3 on at least five attempts per game.<\/p>\n \u2022 Thomas Haugh, junior forward, Florida: He\u2019s one of just 14 high-major players averaging at least 16 points, five rebounds and a steal per game. Plus, he\u2019s been the key to the Gators\u2019 jumbo-sized lineups.<\/p>\n \u2022 Graham Ike, graduate forward, Gonzaga: At 18.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, he is one of the most statistically dominant bigs in the nation. And with fellow frontcourt starter Braden Huff out for the foreseeable future, Ike\u2019s numbers might spike even more.<\/p>\n Surely I\u2019m forgetting a few more who our loyal commenters will quickly remind me of.<\/p>\n 9. Could Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson also crack that list by season\u2019s end? Absolutely \u2014 if he can ever finish a game. But while Peterson\u2019s status was the story of the first half of KU\u2019s season, there are bigger concerns in Lawrence.<\/p>\n On Monday, Kansas coach Bill Self was hospitalized \u201cout of an abundance of caution,\u201d<\/a> the university said, receiving IV fluids at Lawrence Memorial Hospital. That\u2019s after the 63-year-old had two stents inserted last July<\/a> when he \u201cfelt unwell and experienced some concerning symptoms,\u201d and after he previously missed the 2023 Big 12 and NCAA Tournament with a heart condition.<\/p>\n 10. Only the two-time national title winner knows how long he wants to continue coaching through these setbacks. The industry-wide sentiment is that with KU recruiting Tyran Stokes \u2014 the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 class \u2014 as hard as it is, Self wants at least one more go-round.\u00a0At least, being the key phrase.<\/p>\n 11. It goes without saying that when Self retires, it will be the sort of seismic decision that reshapes the landscape of college basketball. Kansas is, at worst, a top-five job in the sport. One of the Cadillacs of college hoops, rich in history, resources and brand-name recognition. Every coach outside of Dan Hurley, Jon Scheyer, Hubert Davis and Mark Pope would jump at the idea of even being considered for Self\u2019s replacement.<\/p>\n Assistant Jacques Vaughn \u2014 one of the best players in KU history \u2014 served as acting head coach for the Jayhawks\u2019 75-69 win Tuesday at Colorado. (Self did not travel, but thankfully said in a statement that he is \u201cfeeling much better.\u201d) Self previously told The Athletic that he is \u201cnot interested in thinking or talking about a succession plan.\u201d<\/a> But as a two-time NBA head coach, not to mention a Jayhawks legend, Vaughn would have to be in the mix.<\/p>\n 12. As for external candidates, take your pick. Industry chatter suggests that Florida\u2019s Todd Golden or Alabama\u2019s Nate Oats would be at the top of KU\u2019s list (although Kansas might have competition for Oats if the North Carolina job surprisingly opens).<\/p>\n Like when John Calipari left Kentucky for Arkansas in the spring of 2024, the Kansas job opening is the sort of vacancy that spins the coaching carousel into overdrive.<\/p>\n As fans of college basketball, though, let\u2019s hope Self\u2019s health enables him to end his career on his own terms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome, football fans who are finally pivoting to college hoops. Come on in. The water\u2019s fine. 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