Now we\u2019re into the offseason, for real.<\/p>\n
College football has a national champion. Notre Dame has a transfer portal haul. Marcus Freeman seems to be everywhere. And spring practice is still two months away. You\u2019ve got plenty of questions about how we got to this point and where it\u2019s all headed as Notre Dame gears up for a season that has \u201cCFP run or bust\u201d energy already.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s get started.<\/p>\n
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)<\/p>\n
If you could magically replay one snap of the Freeman era, what would you choose? Fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line against Texas A&M? Ten men on the field at the end of Ohio State? For the sake of discussion, there\u2019s no guarantee the do-over nets a different outcome. \u2014 Tom H.<\/p>\n
Without question it\u2019s that fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line against Texas A&M. According to the ESPN analytics, the Irish had a 70.5 percent chance to win the game when the Aggies snapped the ball back to Marcel Reed, before Donovan Hinish got held and before Reed lofted a pass to backup tight end Nate Boerkircher, who hadn\u2019t caught a touchdown since he was a redshirt freshman at Nebraska three years ago.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just the likelihood of Notre Dame getting a better outcome on a do-over; it\u2019s the fact that the Irish would be a stone-cold lock for the College Football Playoff with that win \u2026 with the Aggies potentially knocked out the way Miami knocked out Notre Dame. You might have heard that head-to-head matters. And if the Irish are in the 12-team field? Who knows, maybe they\u2019d have been playing on Monday night.<\/p>\n
The only play with similar stakes to the Texas A&M touchdown that I\u2019ve covered was Matt Leinart hitting Dwayne Jarrett on fourth-and-9 from the 26-yard line in the Bush Push game. There was just 1:32 left in the game, USC was out of timeouts and Notre Dame could have knelt out the game with any stop. The Irish might have been playing that Vince Young Texas team in the national title game. Again, there is a high likelihood of a different outcome with incredible stakes if it happens.<\/p>\n
You mentioned the 10 men on the field against Ohio State, but ESPN analytics gave the Buckeyes a 76 percent chance to win after they got down to the goal line. And even if the Irish do get that stop, it\u2019s not clear the season goes any differently. That felt similar to the offensive pass interference penalty called on Notre Dame at Florida State in 2014. Yes, it wiped out the game-winning touchdown that would have been an iconic Notre Dame moment. And yet that season probably still goes off the rails due to injuries and the defensive coordinator.<\/p>\n
I realize this is a thought experiment Notre Dame fans probably don\u2019t want to entertain, but what\u2019s one positive play under Freeman that could flip the outcome of a game if it\u2019s replayed? Again, there\u2019s no guarantee that Notre Dame wouldn\u2019t get the same result. Jayden Harrison\u2019s kickoff return against Georgia? Beaux Collins getting flagged for a personal foul at Texas A&M? Aamil Wagner\u2019s fumble recovery against Penn State? Only hardy souls would venture down this path.<\/p>\n
CJ Carr certainly had a fantastic season, especially for a first-year starter. What is the goal for Year 2? What\u2019s the biggest thing the coaches want him to address? \u2014 Matthew P.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m fascinated to see how much Carr\u2019s experience boosts his production next season, in contrast to how defenses play him differently now that Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are no longer in the backfield. Defenses aren\u2019t going to overload the box to stop Aneyas Williams. The junior is talented, but Love and Price were terrors for defensive coordinators. They had to respect them so much that every play felt like Notre Dame got the benefit of a play-action fake without faking the handoff.<\/p>\n
The most significant growth opportunity for Carr is the USC game, which was by far his worst performance of the season. His 31.1 QBR (per ESPN) against the Trojans was his only game under 60. For the sake of context, Carr\u2019s QBR at Miami in his first career start was 79.6. And he exceeded 90 five times (Purdue, Arkansas, Boston College, Navy and Stanford).<\/p>\n
The USC game was the only time all season where one bad throw seemed to turn into two, then three, then that awful interception before halftime. It felt like Carr got into his own head and didn\u2019t know how to get out, nor did the coaching staff know how to pull him back from the brink. For almost every game next season, that kind of mental funk shouldn\u2019t matter, with the apparent exception of BYU and Miami. However, it\u2019s hard to see the Irish beating the Cougars and Hurricanes if Carr goes into a funk again.<\/p>\n
Yes, there are throws Carr can fine-tune. He missed some shot plays last season. It\u2019s not clear whether offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock knew how to maximize Carr on fourth down or in short yardage. Carr\u2019s leadership should be better, though it was already outstanding last season, to the point that some players thought he could have been a captain as a sophomore despite not winning the job until mid-August.<\/p>\n
Carr is already quite good. He\u2019ll be better than that next season. But understanding how to pull himself out of a skid is an area of necessary improvement, especially if Notre Dame plans to play deep into January, because the defenses Notre Dame would see in the CFP are too good not to push Carr to his limits.<\/p>\n
On Jan. 11, you equated Notre Dame\u2019s start in the portal as \u201cbeing down 10-0 in the second quarter.\u201d What score would you equate to how they finished the game? \u2014 Ryan S.<\/p>\n
Notre Dame won 38-13.<\/p>\n
I realize this won\u2019t be the case the next time Notre Dame falls behind in a game, in recruiting or in the portal, but maybe the overreaction from earlier this month can be a reminder to withhold judgment until it\u2019s (literally or figuratively) halftime? Not saying there aren\u2019t omens worth acknowledging, like the first half against Texas A&M and Notre Dame missing on another five-star prospect under Brian Kelly.<\/p>\n
But for the most part, it\u2019s worth remembering that Notre Dame is near the top of the food chain in this sport. Things typically work out for schools like that.<\/p>\n
The next portal cycle Notre Dame doesn\u2019t host anybody on opening weekend, relax. Or at least stay off the message board.<\/p>\n
Between transfers and incoming freshmen, something like one-third of the roster will be different. Who will be the top three to five most impactful new faces for next season? \u2014 Jimmy R.<\/p>\n
By my count, Notre Dame will have 98 scholarship players on next year\u2019s roster. And there are 36 newcomers within that group, which is 36.7 percent of the roster. That\u2019s a lot of new blood to get acclimated.<\/p>\n
My hunch is that the most impactful new face will be defensive tackle Francis Brewu, but the second-most impactful will be new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge. The defensive line wasn\u2019t efficient enough last season when Notre Dame needed it, especially early in the season. When Freeman lamented over and over about Notre Dame\u2019s inability to get pressure with its front four, he was begging the position to step up.<\/p>\n
The defensive line did, producing more pressures in last year\u2019s 12-game schedule than it did in 16 games a year earlier. But the nine pressures at Miami was a disappointment that lingered, even with the defensive line posting 20 pressures against USC.<\/p>\n
Partridge, especially with his knowledge of how defensive coordinator Chris Ash likes to call a game, can be a force multiplier. We probably won\u2019t be hearing the head coach talking about how fronts and coverages are married like he did last season.<\/p>\n
This is a blind guess, but it\u2019s hard to imagine Mylan Graham and\/or Quincy Porter not giving Notre Dame something this season, although it\u2019s hard to know which one. Porter is expected to miss part of the offseason while recovering from knee surgery. Both are raw athletes with high potential, but Notre Dame is all too experienced with elite receiver recruits not quite panning out. Can the Irish get at least one to hit this season?<\/p>\n
What would have to happen to force Notre Dame to join a conference? Former athletic director Jack Swarbrick set the criteria: money, access to the playoffs and access to quality opponents. Items No. 2 and\u00a0 No. 3 are shakier than they\u2019ve ever been right now. \u2014 Dan M.<\/p>\n
To clarify, Swarbrick\u2019s requirements for Notre Dame\u2019s independence were: 1. Access to the football national championship. 2. A committed media partner. 3. A home for Notre Dame\u2019s Olympic sports. Scheduling was never a specific box to check, perhaps because it felt much easier 10 years ago than it does now. But you\u2019re right to bring it up, because without a competitive schedule, Notre Dame\u2019s access to the CFP feels restricted.<\/p>\n