{"id":699023,"date":"2026-01-23T14:00:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T14:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/699023\/"},"modified":"2026-01-23T14:00:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T14:00:16","slug":"afc-championship-expert-picks-patriots-vs-broncos-odds-nfl-playoffs-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/699023\/","title":{"rendered":"AFC Championship expert picks: Patriots vs. Broncos odds, NFL playoffs best bets"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sunday’s end, a champion of the AFC will be crowned and have their ticket punched for Super Bowl<\/a> LX. The New England Patriots<\/a> and Denver Broncos<\/a> will square off for that right to advance to Santa Clara to play for the chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday at Mile High.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As we do every week throughout the season, CBS Sports and SportsLine have compiled our experts’ best picks in one place that way you can get picks against the spread while also checking out additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model,\u00a0best bets<\/a>\u00a0from our staff, and more.<\/p>\n

Stick with CBS Sports through the NFL playoffs<\/a> as we break down every game and storyline through the most intriguing part of the season.<\/p>\n

All\u00a0NFL odds<\/a>\u00a0via\u00a0DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Which picks can you make with confidence during Championship Sunday? And which contenders go down hard? Visit SportsLine<\/a>, as its incredible model simulates every NFL<\/a> game 10,000 times and is up well over\u00a0$7,000 for $100 players on top-rated\u00a0NFL picks<\/a>\u00a0since its inception.<\/p>\n

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS |\u00a0Paramount+<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Pete Prisco’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Broncos +5.5: “The New England defense can be stingy, especially against the run, which can put more pressure on Payton to scheme up things to make it easier for Stidham. I think Payton is one of the best play callers in the league, so I think he will.<\/p>\n

“On the other side, Drake Maye<\/a> will be making his first road playoff start for the Patriots. That can be daunting, especially against a good Denver defense. But Maye has been good on the road this season. Then again, this is the playoffs.<\/p>\n

“The Bills<\/a> ran on the Broncos last week, so I expect the Patriots to try to do the same. New England is averaging 156.1 rushing yards per game over the last seven games, but I think Denver will be better this time against the run.<\/p>\n

“It would be easy to pick the Pats here based on Stidham playing. But I think the Denver players will elevate their games around him and Payton will have a big day calling the game for him. I think Denver’s defense will get the best of the Pats offense. Denver goes to the Super Bowl.”\u00a0Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 21<\/p>\n

To see Prisco’s NFC Championship pick, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Look no further than Marshall to help you make your pick for the AFC Championship. The SportsLine expert has been on a tear with his NFL picks, owning a 58-38-2 record (+1589) over his last 98 NFL plays. Now, he’s turned his attention to this playoff matchup between New England and Denver. We can tell you Marshall is leaning Over the 42.5 point total, but to see his official ATS pick, you’ll need to go to SportsLine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Tyler Sullivan’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Patriots -5.5: “Will Stidham rise to the occasion and pull off what would be a historic upset? I doubt it. One of the underrated developments of these playoffs has been the rise of New England’s defense. Once thought to live and die by the performance of Drake Maye, the Patriots have won back-to-back playoff matchups even as their MVP-contending quarterback hasn’t played his best wire to wire. That’s largely been due to the defense, which is coming off a dominating win over Houston, where it accounted for five turnovers. If the Patriots’ defense makes Stidham’s head spin even half as much as they C.J. Stroud’s<\/a>, they should punch their ticket to the Super Bowl rather convincingly. Oh, and if you are concerned about New England going on the road, let’s factor this in: the Patriots were the only team in the NFL to boast a perfect 8-0 record on the road this season and were also 7-1 ATS in those contests.”\u00a0Pick: Patriots 24, Broncos 17<\/p>\n

To see Sullivan’s NFC Championship pick, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

John Breech’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Broncos +5.5: “Maye struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL, and now, he has to once again play one of the best defenses in the NFL, except this time, he has to go on the road. Maye has taken a beating this postseason (he’s been sacked 10 times in two games) and it could get worse this week. He took the fourth-most sacks in the NFL this year and he’s facing a defense that recorded the FIFTH-MOST sacks in a single season in NFL history. I have no idea how the Patriots offensive line is going to stop the Broncos’ pass-rush.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“When Maye starts taking hits, he tends to fumble the ball. He’s fumbled SIX times in his two playoff games and the Patriots have lost three of those fumbles. The Broncos are 9-1 this season when they force at least one turnover, so something as simple as recovering a fumble could be the key to pulling off the upset here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Stidham might only throw for 103 yards in this game, but if he plays mistake-free football and doesn’t turn the ball over, Denver will have a chance to win.” Pick: Patriots 20, Broncos 17<\/p>\n

To see Breech’s NFC Championship pick, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mike McClure’s top DFS for Championship Sunday<\/p>\n

If you want to add some DFS lineups to your Championship Sunday, Mike McClure is the expert you’ll want to follow. McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. In 2023, he won the DraftKings Millionaire Maker twice and the FanDuel<\/a> Million once. Now, he’s eyeing these conference championships and building up rosters to cash in. For this AFC Championship, one to McClure’s top DFS picks is Stefon Diggs<\/a>. To see the rest of his top plays and lineups, click over to SportsLine<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jared Dubin’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Patriots -5.5: “This one is pretty simple: the Broncos will not have their starting quarterback for this game. It’s really hard to see them putting together a representative offensive performance with Jarrett Stidham<\/a> at the helm — especially given how well the New England defense has played so far during the playoffs in holding down offenses piloted by Justin Herbert<\/a> and C.J. Stroud. New England’s offense hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in either of its games against elite defenses, and the Broncos present another one for them to go up against, but I have far more trust in Drake Maye going against a Denver unit that has actually shown some leaks since its bye week, than I do in Stidham and Co. against the Pats.” Pick: Patriots 21, Broncos 10<\/p>\n

To see Dubin’s NFC Championship pick, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jordan Dajani’s Patriots vs. Broncos pick<\/p>\n

Patriots -5.5: “Stidham is the seventh quarterback to make his first start of the season in the playoffs, and only one of the previous six actually won their game. He is 1-3 as an NFL starter, and it will be interesting to see how Sean Payton alters his game plan with Bo Nix<\/a> out. Regardless of Stidham’s role on Sunday, there are two things that must happen if the Broncos want this upset: The run game has to reappear and the defense has to dominate. Since J.K. Dobbins<\/a> was injured in Week 10, the Broncos rank bottom 10 in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. Dobbins has a chance to return this week, but I’m not banking on him to be an X factor. This Denver defense ranks top three in points allowed per game (18.3), yards allowed per game (278.2) and third-down percentage (33.8%) as well. Vance Joseph’s unit can definitely contain Drake Maye, but the Patriots are the only team with a perfect against-the-spread record (8-0) on the road this season. I believe this will be a close game until New England finally covers in the fourth quarter.” Pick: Patriots 20, Broncos 13<\/p>\n

To see Dajani’s NFC Championship pick,\u00a0click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Sunday’s end, a champion of the AFC will be crowned and have their ticket punched for Super…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":699024,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1107,925,101920,100422,53,1028,258,833,7,601,3872,1159,58,249,112,6,50187,41804,101921,5103,261,531],"class_list":["post-699023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-betting","tag-bo-nix","tag-broncos-vs-patriots-picks","tag-broncos-vs-patriots","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-c-j-stroud","tag-denver-broncos","tag-drake-maye","tag-football","tag-j-k-dobbins","tag-jarrett-stidham","tag-justin-herbert","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-nfc-championship","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-best-bets","tag-nfl-expert-picks","tag-nfl-how-to-watch","tag-predictions","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-stefon-diggs"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115944779023621085","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=699023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699023\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/699024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=699023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=699023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=699023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}