The end of the football season is upon us. Zac Jackson still has a chance to have a winning campaign. Jon Greenberg \u2026 not so much. But they\u2019ll keep firing off losers and occasional winners until the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n
JON GREENBERG (1-4 last week, 42-61-1 overall): I\u2019m freezing, tired and I can feel a cold coming on. But at least I\u2019m not covering a coaching search. Another tough week for me. If I go 2-0 this Sunday, I\u2019m going to be talking to the camera and making prayer hands like Fernando Mendoza. Certainly, I need to make some money to cover the Indiana gear I bought for my wife and kids.<\/p>\n
How cold is it in Cleveland? I\u2019m writing this on Friday, and I haven\u2019t left my house yet. I\u2019m expecting to see a Wampa on my driveway.<\/p>\n
ZAC JACKSON (1-3, 45-48-1): One-and-three to fall back into the ranks of losers.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s -23 degrees, we\u2019re getting 17 inches of snow, I\u2019m covering a coaching search that\u2019s about to enter its fourth week \u2026 yep, all checks out here. Very normal stuff.<\/p>\n
I like the Broncos +4. I feel obligated to take more than a field goal.<\/p>\n
Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years.<\/p>\n
The Patriots aren\u2019t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos\u2019 defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can\u2019t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.<\/p>\n
Nice pick by me, by the way.<\/p>\n
GREENBERG: I was just about to take a stockpile of cash to the sportsbook to throw it on New England going against Jarrett Stidham. Your research is making me reconsider. My season record is also making me second-guess my razor-sharp intuition.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll roll with Denver +4 as long as you don\u2019t call it your \u201cplay of the year.\u201d I think you\u2019re about 1-20 on those picks. A lot of people seem to be taking your advice as the line has gone down a half-point recently. Hopefully, it goes up again.<\/p>\n
I will also take the Seahawks -2.5 at home. I wasn\u2019t super impressed with the Rams last week at Soldier Field, and it feels like this is Seattle\u2019s year.<\/p>\n
Do you have any prop bets for the people?<\/p>\n
JACKSON: You never get good numbers on these in big games with name-brand players, but Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown -150 feels like a winner to me. He\u2019s obviously going to play most of the snaps, and he ran wild over the Rams in Week 16. Seattle\u2019s path to winning feels like it includes letting the defense and the run game do most of the heavy lifting, and I just think in big moments the Seahawks will trust their running back more than their quarterback.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t play crazy prop ladders very often (or very well), and I don\u2019t usually dive into correlated parlays on player\u00a0props. But I see Walker getting ample opportunity to really post a big game here.<\/p>\n
Same for Puka Nacua. Only one stage is bigger than this one, and Nacua just produces. He\u2019ll catch screen passes. He\u2019ll help in the run game. He\u2019ll get upward of 15 targets if that\u2019s what it takes, and I do think Seattle wins the game. That means the Rams in scramble mode, and that means even more opportunity for Nacua. He\u2019s +115 to score, and his reception line is over\/under 7.5. Give me the over 7.5 at -110. The juice is +105 to amass over 100 yards.<\/p>\n
GREENBERG: It was pretty shocking that Matthew Stafford didn\u2019t throw a touchdown pass last week, even though it was really cold in Chicago. I assume he\u2019ll get at least one in Seattle. So that makes sense. I\u2019ll take Nacua +115 to score. And I might just put that \u201cNew England is a lock\u201d bounty on that Walker touchdown -150 bet. For the purposes of this column, let\u2019s do it.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll add a Seattle defense\/special teams to score bet at +525. Going back to the New England-Denver game, I\u2019ll add Courtland Sutton over 4.5 receptions +120 and Drake Maye +280 to score a touchdown. Anything else?<\/p>\n
JACKSON: I think I\u2019ll play a bunch of Seattle to win the Super Bowl futures paired with Horizon League basketball games and maybe Alabama basketball\u00a0Saturday night since it\u2019s bringing in a 7-foot pro player. That usually helps.<\/p>\n
Speaking of help, my wife needs some help shoveling the driveway. I can\u2019t wait for the Super Bowl props!<\/p>\n
Jon Greenberg\u2019s picksZac Jackson\u2019s picks<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The end of the football season is upon us. Zac Jackson still has a chance to have a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":703532,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[258,7,58,249,6,84,261,5433],"class_list":{"0":"post-703531","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-denver-broncos","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-los-angeles-rams","11":"tag-new-england-patriots","12":"tag-nfl","13":"tag-nfl-playoffs","14":"tag-seattle-seahawks","15":"tag-sports-betting"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115954884851813844","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=703531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703531\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/703532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=703531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=703531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=703531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}