ended poorly.<\/a><\/p>\nThe Patriots are being spotted 4.5 to 5 points, making them Super Bowl underdogs for the first time since 2002. They won that game, upsetting the Rams and kicking off a dynastic run in which they were favored in eight straight Super Bowl appearances. The 2001 Patriots opened the season at +6000 to win it all, and no team with odds that long has won the title since.<\/p>\n
Until now!<\/p>\n
As of Sept. 4, the Seahawks\u2019 championship odds were +6000, and New England sat at +8000. Whoever wins will be the longest long shot since the start of the Brady\/Belichick epoch (this year\u2019s Pats actually slipped to +12500 in both Week 2 and Week 4 this year, so if you timed it right, congrats on your new island).<\/p>\n
The good news for New England is that underdogs have not only covered the spread in the past five Super Bowls, they\u2019ve outright won the last three. The bad news is their current performance has them in pretty thin company.<\/p>\n
They\u2019ve scored 54 points in three games, the lowest total of any team that played three games before making the Super Bowl. They scored 10 points Sunday, which is the second-fewest by a team that won a conference championship game (the 1979 Rams scored nine).<\/p>\n
In fairness, that game was played in a blizzard, but Maye has struggled all postseason. New England\u2019s passing success rate in the playoffs is 35 percent, making them just the second team ever to post that low a number and make it this far. The 2015 Broncos are the other, which is not a team you want to be associated with offensively. Maye\u2019s 65 net passing yards Sunday are the second-fewest for a winning quarterback in the playoffs this century.<\/p>\n
But Maye, who will become the second-youngest quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl (Dan Marino was 35 days younger for Super Bowl XIX), also faced three teams ranked in the top five for total defense. Until the 23-year-old\u2019s current run, no quarterback had ever beaten three top-five defenses to make the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n
Maye can also take solace in the fact that, though the Rams lost, they averaged 8.3 yards per play against the Seahawks, and Seattle allowed a 62 percent pass success rate.<\/p>\n
Specifically, they allowed 226 yards on deep passes, the third most in any NFL game in the last 10 years. Since the stat was tracked, the Seahawks are the only team to allow more than 200 yards on deep balls in a playoff game and win. This season, Maye posted an EPA per dropback of 1.31 on deep passes, .5 more than the next quarterback.<\/p>\n
That next quarterback? Sam Darnold, whose two-man deep game with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been Seattle\u2019s knockout punch all year. The play-action pass attack, which takes a few seconds to develop, does run the risk of inviting pressure, but New England is 29th in the league at getting to the quarterback on long dropbacks (over three seconds). Darnold\u2019s average time to throw sits at 3.3 seconds on bombs.<\/p>\n
But the Patriots have eight takeaways this postseason, and have gained the third-most EPA off turnovers of any team in the last 20 years. Only the Bengals lost more EPA to turnovers than the Seahawks this season, and that trend, combined with Maye\u2019s slip in production, likely contributes to the final number: 46.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the over-under for Super Bowl LX, the lowest for any Super Bowl in a decade. The last time the mark was this low is also the last time the Super Bowl was in Santa Clara. Denver and Carolina had a 43.5-point mark, and the under comfortably hit in the Broncos\u2019 24-10 win.<\/p>\n
Super Bowl 60 score predictions<\/p>\n
Seahawks 27, Patriots 17: I\u2019m a bit more bullish on Seattle\u2019s chances than the betting odds. The Seahawks just beat a better team in the Rams (granted, in a one-score game at home) and are more well-rounded than New England. \u2014 Dan Santaromita<\/p>\n
Seahawks 24, Patriots 10: Yes, the Patriots\u2019 trail to Santa Clara blazed through the Chargers, Texans and Broncos \u2014 three of the top defenses in the NFL \u2014 but there are notable qualifiers. L.A.\u2019s offensive line and Justin Herbert were ailing, C..J. Stroud was convinced the Patriots\u2019 defenders played for Houston and Jarrett Stidham should have gotten an assist for New England\u2019s loan TD in the AFC Championship Game after his two-handed chest pass went backwards. The Pats will need to turn over Darnold and the Seahawks to come out on top, and \u2014 I can\u2019t believe I\u2019m going to say this, but \u2014 I don\u2019t quite see that happening with how composed Darnold looked against the Rams and his nemesis, defensive coordinator Chris Shula. \u2014 Mike Hume<\/p>\n
Seahawks: 24, Patriots: 17: I love that we\u2019ll be watching two well-coached teams in the Super Bowl, but I think Seattle has the talent advantage on offense and defense. The Seahawks had a much more difficult road to the championship and ranked in the top five in defensive scoring during the regular season. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver among the two teams, and his chemistry with Darnold, who\u2019s having another career year, is undeniable. \u2014 Jess Bryant<\/p>\n
Seahawks 28, Patriots 19: A tale of two Mikes! An unpredicted Super Bowl feels thrilling in this day and age, and these two coaches \u2014 Vrabel and Macdonald \u2014 deserve to be here. The Patriots have had some perhaps undeserved doubt about the path they overcame on the way, but they earned this and I think they\u2019ll put up a good resistance to the rolling Seahawks. But just not enough. The Seahawks are a juggernaut, and they\u2019ve come through better teams to get here. \u2014 Hannah Vanbiber<\/p>\n
Seahawks 24, Patriots 21: I\u2019m terrified for this Patriots offensive line to go up against this Seahawks defensive front. In a game that I think could be lower scoring, paired with the league\u2019s best defense, a big game from a defensive lineman would be the narrative to get rewarded with Super Bowl MVP\u2026. (See my MVP pick below.)\u00a0\u2014 Austin Mock<\/p>\n
Seahawks 28, Patriots 20: I would\u2019ve picked the Rams if they won, so it\u2019s clear how I perceive Seattle heading up against New England. It really comes down to me thinking the Seahawks are superior on both sides of the ball. Nothing fancy.\u00a0\u2014 Larry Holder<\/p>\n
Seahawks 27, Patriots 19: I just don\u2019t think Drake Maye has been good enough in these playoffs to believe he\u2019s going to be able to keep pace while trying to navigate a Seattle defense that has bite at every level. Mike Vrabel has done a masterful coaching job to pull this team to the Super Bowl, but New England\u2019s offense won\u2019t be enough in this game.\u00a0\u2014 Nick Kosmider<\/p>\n
Super Bowl MVP picks<\/p>\n
Sam Darnold (+135): I love a comeback arc and anything that proves what we already knew about the Jets\u2019 inability to develop a QB. Give me Darnold for the narrative and because he has played exceptionally well in the postseason with 0.38 EPA\/DB and a 122.4 passer rating. If the Hawks win, he\u2019s the MVP. \u2014 Jess Bryant<\/p>\n
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500): It\u2019s really hard to go against the Darnold narrative, but JSN has been stellar all year, and I\u2019m having flashbacks to his 347-yard showing in the Rose Bowl four years ago. \u2014 Dan Santaromita<\/p>\n
DeMarcus Lawrence (+12500): There are plenty of Seahawks to pick from, but I\u2019ll settle on Lawrence being disruptive on the field edge leading to enough sacks and forced fumbles to give him the MVP.\u00a0\u2014 Austin Mock<\/p>\n
Smith-Njigba: Darnold is the obvious pick, so I\u2019m going with Smith-Njigba for fun and because he is having a career year and seems to rise to the occasion on a big stage like this. Also, his vibes are immaculate. (Do the kids say this anymore?) \u2014 Hannah Vanbiber<\/p>\n
Darnold: He seemed so much more in control against the Rams in the NFC Championship game than I thought he would be. New England will present a tougher challenge defensively, but it feels like Darnold can handle just about anything.\u00a0\u2014 Larry Holder<\/p>\n
Darnold: (Man, this Kool-Aid is strong!) I can\u2019t see the award going to anyone else unless the Super Bowl becomes a turnover fest, and I\u2019m already wagering against that outcome. Plus, the Darnold redemption arc is the feel-good Super Bowl story we need right now. \u2014 Mike Hume<\/p>\n
Smith-Njigba: There have only been two wide receivers to be named Super Bowl MVP in the past 16 years. The position has a difficult path to the award because if a receiver is putting up big numbers, so is the quarterback throwing him the ball. But Smith-Njigba has been undeniable this season, and if he catches a pair of touchdown passes \u2014 like current teammate Cooper Kupp did for the Rams while winning Super Bowl MVP in 2022 \u2014 and adds 100-plus yards, it would be easy to see him be recognized for his performance in the game and the season that led him to that moment. \u2014 Nick Kosmider<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s only fitting that in a season of improbable happenings, Super Bowl LX features such an improbable pairing.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":709793,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2050],"tags":[7,1167,249,2326,2094,6,208,261,5433],"class_list":{"0":"post-709792","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-england-patriots","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-new-england","10":"tag-new-england-patriots","11":"tag-newengland","12":"tag-newenglandpatriots","13":"tag-nfl","14":"tag-patriots","15":"tag-seattle-seahawks","16":"tag-sports-betting"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/115969073856347475","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=709792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/709793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=709792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=709792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=709792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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