It feels like ancient history, but it was actually just 365 days ago.<\/p>\n
The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, concluding the 2024 NFL season. It meant that New England Patriots fans could finally turn the page on a season from their worst nightmares.<\/p>\n
New England was coming off a 4-13 season. The Patriots had won eight games over the last two seasons. When the confetti dropped in New Orleans, the Patriots opened with 100-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl LX\u2026 even slimmer odds than the New York Jets (80-to-1).<\/p>\n
Today, the Patriots are the reigning AFC champions (although they failed to seal the deal in the big game). Meanwhile, the Jets\u2019 predicament looks eerily similar to the one faced by the now-AFC champions just one year ago.<\/p>\n
New York is coming off a 3-14 season. The Jets have won eight games over the past two seasons. When the confetti dropped<\/a> in Santa Clara last night, the Jets opened with 250-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl LXI (per FanDuel).<\/p>\n Frankly, the Jets\u2019 situation is even worse than the one New England was in last year; after all, the Jets\u2019 championship odds are more than twice as long. Nevertheless, if we look solely at the standings<\/a>, the situation is hardly different. The Pats were coming off an 8-26 stretch over the previous two seasons, and so are the Jets.<\/p>\n New England parlayed that into an AFC championship. Could the Jets do the same?<\/p>\n Let\u2019s run through the top two reasons the Patriots were able to go from 8-26 to the Super Bowl, and evaluate the Jets\u2019 outlook in each of those categories.<\/p>\n Quarterback<\/p>\n The main reason why New England\u2019s odds were more than twice as strong as the Jets\u2019 current odds at this point in 2025 is that they had a young franchise quarterback. When you have an up-and-coming signal-caller, a meteoric rise is always within the realm of possibility for the team.<\/p>\n Whether it was Jalen Hurts (2022), Joe Burrow (2021), Josh Allen (2020), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Patrick Mahomes (2018), the leap of a young quarterback is often what vaults a team from outside of the championship conversation to squarely within it. So, if a team has one of these guys on their roster, it significantly increases their chances of taking a substantial jump as a team.<\/p>\n The Patriots had one last year. The Jets do not.<\/p>\n Few could have foreseen Drake Maye enjoying the type of leap that he did, save for his family and the most blindly loyal Bostonians. After going 3-9 with a sub-90.0 passer rating in his rookie year, Maye led the NFL in passer rating (113.5) while finishing one first-place vote shy of winning MVP\u2026 at 23 years old.<\/p>\n New England won the AFC title for many reasons, but Maye\u2019s elite production is number one.<\/p>\n There is little to no chance that the Jets will enjoy this type of quarterback play in 2026.<\/p>\n If the Jets draft a potential franchise quarterback, he will not be at Maye\u2019s level in year one; it\u2019s never been done before. The Jets would be lucky if that quarterback were even league-average, given how weak the 2026 quarterback class is perceived to be<\/a>.<\/p>\n If the Jets find their starter outside of the draft, they will probably have to settle for a mediocre stopgap, like Jacoby Brissett<\/a>, or another team\u2019s damaged goods, like Kyler Murray.<\/p>\n New York will have to try and pull off a Pats-like turnaround without nearly as prolific a quarterback. It is fair to say that this is borderline impossible, but let\u2019s continue with the exercise to hammer the point home.<\/p>\n Head coach<\/p>\n One thing that the Patriots had going for them at this point in 2025 is a new head coach\u2014a proven one, at that.<\/p>\n New England went one-and-done with Jerod Mayo, fanning out the stench of the late-Bill Belichick era. It allowed them to turn the page to Mike Vrabel, a coach who had already shown that he could turn an organization around and lead it deep into the playoffs.<\/p>\n The Jets\u2026 are in a somewhat different position, to put it nicely.<\/p>\n Aaron Glenn is returning as head coach after a 3-14 season in which his team was outscored by 203 points. He has already admitted that he struck out on essentially every critical coaching hire that he made in his rookie year. It not only reduces confidence that Glenn has any sort of plan worth believing in<\/a>, but it has also left the Jets scrounging for leftovers across the coaching staff.<\/p>\n Huge Frank Reich issue that shows how behind the times he was at last 2 stops<\/p>\n Pre-snap motion rate:<\/p>\n 2022 (IND): 34.4% (3rd-lowest) The 2025 NFL average was 55.9%. 13 of this year’s 16 best offenses (per DVOA) had a motion rate above NFL avg #Jets<\/a><\/p>\n
2023 (CAR): 28.4% (4th-lowest)<\/p>\n