{"id":743111,"date":"2026-02-10T19:36:34","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T19:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/743111\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T19:36:34","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T19:36:34","slug":"defining-success-for-first-year-coaches-in-2026-cfp-or-bust-for-lane-kiffin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/743111\/","title":{"rendered":"Defining success for first-year coaches in 2026: CFP or bust for Lane Kiffin?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A wild college football coaching carousel season gave us 17 new Power Four head coaches readying for their 2026 season debuts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With new head coaches comes optimism and hope but also pressure. The days of a multi-year runway to start winning are over. The transfer portal has made it easier than ever to oversee a massive roster overhaul but with it comes heightened expectations to fix what ails the program immediately. Curt Cignetti winning a national championship in his second season at what had been the losingest program in college football history raises the stakes for new coaches everywhere.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So what does success look like for each of the 17 new Power Four head coaches? We reviewed their staff hires, transfer portal additions and upcoming 2026 schedule to come up with what the baseline of success should look like in Year 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Matt Campbell, Penn State<\/p>\n

Success: Playoff<\/p>\n

Campbell has the arduous task of trying to take what has been a very good Penn State<\/a> program and elevate it into great territory. There’s no mistaking the fact that Penn State fired James Franklin only nine months removed from a national semifinal appearance because it believed it could be doing more. Penn State hired Campbell to win national championships. In Year 1 that is unlikely, but a playoff appearance would go a long way to showing AD Pat Kraft’s bold decision was the right one. Campbell restocked the cabinet with the nation’s No. 6 transfer class, full of former Iowa State<\/a> players including quarterback Rocco Becht<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Bob Chesney, UCLA<\/p>\n

Success: Stability<\/p>\n

UCLA<\/a> nabbed one of the hottest coaching names of the cycle in Bob Chesney, who guided James Madison<\/a> to a playoff appearance in 2025. The program has been through a lot the last two seasons after Chip Kelly’s late departure in 2024 to become Ohio State’s<\/a> offensive coordinator. A bowl game would be nice, but so would a clear vision and defined playing style. Now on its third coach in three seasons, UCLA badly needs stability and a coach who can aim it in the right direction.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan State<\/p>\n

Success: Bowl game<\/p>\n

Inheriting a Michigan State program that went 4-8 in 2025, Pat Fitzgerald has his work cut out to get the Spartans back toward the top of the Big Ten. With a challenging 2026 schedule which includes games against Oregon<\/a>, Michigan<\/a> and Notre Dame<\/a>, simply making it to a bowl game would be a win for Fitzgerald, who has not coached since 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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From 124 to 22: James Franklin on Virginia Tech’s hot Signing Day finish, which included 11 Penn State flips<\/p>\n

\n Brandon Marcello <\/p>\n

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James Franklin, Virginia Tech<\/p>\n

Success: 8 or more wins\u00a0<\/p>\n

Virginia Tech<\/a> made one of the best hires of the cycle when it hired former Penn State coach James Franklin. The Hokies badly needed a program-builder who could raise the floor of expectations in Blacksburg, two areas that Franklin excels in. Franklin signed a top-20 portal class and a top-30 high school class which should help Virginia Tech off to a good start. The schedule feels very manageable especially early on. Road games against Clemson<\/a>, SMU<\/a> and Miami<\/a> will determine the ceiling of Franklin’s first year, but this should be VT’s best record since 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Pete Golding, Ole Miss<\/p>\n

Success: 9 wins and\/or a win over LSU<\/a><\/p>\n

Pete Golding had the Rebels a play away from a national championship berth after taking over following Lane Kiffin’s departure. Golding has built that momentum by signing the nation’s No. 2 transfer portal class which also retaining top talent like running back Kewan Lacy<\/a>. If Trinidad Chambliss<\/a> is able to play again in 2026, this is a playoff-caliber roster. If Golding can have Ole Miss<\/a> in the playoff hunt — and especially if that includes a home win over Kiffin and LSU on Sept. 19th — fans will be happy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Alex Golesh, Auburn<\/p>\n

Success: 7 wins\u00a0<\/p>\n

Perhaps this feels like too easy a bar to surpass in Year 1, and in many ways, it is. But you must remember this program has been to two bowl games in five seasons and last won more than six games in 2019. There is enough incoming and returning talent that Golesh could win eight or even nine games in Year 1, but as long as he can get Auburn<\/a> back on track with a bowl game and seven wins or so, he’ll be in good shape.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Collin Klein, Kansas State<\/p>\n

Success: Top half of Big 12<\/p>\n

Chris Klieman, Klein’s predecessor, had a nice run from 2021-24 winning at least eight games each season and finishing top-5 in the conference in three of the four seasons. The Wildcats slipped in 2025 — they finished 6-6 — but are hoping Klein can inject some energy and offensive creativity to the program. Kansas State<\/a> doesn’t have the financial resources of some of its peers — hello, Texas Tech<\/a>\u00a0— but a top-half finish and a solid bowl game appearance would be a good start for Klein in Manhattan.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Lane Kiffin, LSU<\/p>\n

Success: Playoff<\/p>\n

Lane Kiffin left a playoff-bound Ole Miss team because he believed he could accomplish even more in Baton Rouge. With the nation’s top transfer class, including expensive additions in five-star quarterback Sam Leavitt<\/a> and offensive tackle Jordan Seaton<\/a>, the expectations are sky high for Kiffin’s first year. Anything less than a playoff appearance would be a disappointment given all the investment already put into the 2026 LSU roster. On paper, this LSU team is ready to win big immediately.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Tosh Lupoi, Cal<\/p>\n

Success: Bowl game\u00a0<\/p>\n

The good news for Lupoi, a first-time head coach, is that star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele<\/a> is back in Berkeley for another year. The bad news is California’s<\/a> first two games are losable (UCLA, at Syracuse<\/a>) and starting in late October the Bears have to play three consecutive road games against SMU, North Carolina State<\/a> and Virginia<\/a>. If Lupoi is one of the better first-year head coaches in 2026, the schedule shakes out in a way that eight or more wins could be possible. But given that Cal hasn’t won more than six games in a season since 2019, let’s start with a bowl game for Lupoi’s debut.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Eric Morris, Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

Success: 7 wins<\/p>\n

Morris is hoping to jumpstart a moribund Oklahoma State<\/a> program with two of the most impactful transfers in the country in quarterback Drew Mestemaker<\/a> and running back Caleb Hawkins<\/a>. Morris, a well-established offensive guru, has worked wonders everywhere he’s been, which includes finding and developing future No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. Oklahoma State has won a grand total of four games over its last 24 so it’d be wise to keep expectations in check, but don’t be shocked to see Morris lead one of the biggest turnarounds in college football<\/a> this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Tavita Pritchard, Stanford<\/p>\n

Success: Bowl game<\/p>\n

Stanford<\/a> hasn’t had a winning record since 2020, a long fall from the heights of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw eras. Stanford GM Andrew Luck is hoping Tavita Pritchard, who guided the Cardinal to a win over No. 1 USC<\/a> in 2007, is the guy to get the program back on track. Simply making a bowl game would be huge for Stanford in Year 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Jimmy Rogers, Iowa State<\/p>\n

Success: Bowl game<\/p>\n

Rogers got dealt a tough hand with former Iowa State coach Matt Campbell raiding the program of 24 players to bring with him to Penn State. It’s a total overhaul in Ames making it difficult to really know what to expect in Year 1. If Rogers can achieve a bowl game as he starts rebuilding the program in his image, it’ll feel like a win.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Morgan Scalley, Utah<\/p>\n

Success: 9 or more wins<\/p>\n

This is one of the more interesting scenarios especially after Kyle Whittingham left, passed the baton to head-coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley and then reappeared at Michigan. With speculation that Whittingham was nudged out in favor of the new regime, Scalley faces perhaps the most pressure of any first-year coach not named Lane Kiffin. Utah<\/a> was in the playoff hunt a year ago, finishing the season ranked No. 14, and that will be the expectation again this season. Utah’s 2026 schedule looks very reasonable on paper — the Utes don’t play Texas Tech and their big out-of-conference game is against Arkansas<\/a>\u00a0— and Scalley must capitalize.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Ryan Silverfield, Arkansas<\/p>\n

Success: Bowl game<\/p>\n

The fanbase didn’t come off as overly enthused over the Ryan Silverfield hire, adding a bit of pressure for Year 1. The challenge is a brutal schedule that features road games to Texas, Texas A&M<\/a>, Utah, Vanderbilt<\/a> and Auburn. That plus home games against LSU, Tennessee<\/a> and Georgia makes for one of the nation’s toughest slates. Five or more wins should really be the bar but no SEC program is happy with a season that doesn’t even end up in a bowl.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Will Stein, Kentucky<\/p>\n

Success: 7 wins<\/p>\n

While still trying to balance his offensive coordinator duties at Oregon, Stein put together one of the best transfer classes in the country. Headlined by Notre Dame quarterback Kenny Minchey<\/a>, Texas running back CJ Baxter<\/a> and Tennessee offensive tackle Lance Heard<\/a>, the Wildcats signed the No. 11 class in the country. Kentucky<\/a> slipped in the final years under Mark Stoops, last making a bowl game in 2023, but there is enough talent on this roster to at least make a bowl game in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Jon Sumrall, Florida<\/p>\n

Success: 8 or more wins<\/p>\n

Florida<\/a> again dipped into Louisiana to find its next coach in Tulane<\/a>‘s Jon Sumrall. He has said all the right things since landing in Gainesville, building optimism within the fanbase. What are reasonable expectations for Sumrall in Year 1? Eight wins or so seems fair. That was the ceiling of the Billy Napier era, something Sumrall must surpass sooner than later. A three-game stretch against Texas<\/a>, Georgia<\/a> and Oklahoma<\/a> could make or break this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\"team
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Kyle Whittingham, Michigan<\/p>\n

Success: Playoff and\/or win over Ohio State<\/p>\n

Whittingham was never able to get Utah into the playoff, but that’ll be the expectation with his new job in Ann Arbor. Michigan was in the playoff hunt a year ago despite obvious issues involving former head coach Sherrone Moore percolating behind the scenes. Whittingham should bring toughness, discipline and a more organized approach to a Michigan program that has big-time talent like Bryce Underwood<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A wild college football coaching carousel season gave us 17 new Power Four head coaches readying for their…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":743112,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7208,7210,24179,70448,4221,32202,331,100870,75681,106911,67726,1301,7,4720,2744,44443,60423,29970,4722,33980,3499,63355,33137,94614,1564,7211,2549,71,49,48,106912,4723,7207,2743,12012,6776,1923,65456,666,12951,3863],"class_list":["post-743111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-football","tag-arkansas-razorbacks","tag-auburn-tigers","tag-bryce-underwood","tag-caleb-hawkins","tag-california-golden-bears","tag-cj-baxter","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-2026-season","tag-college-football-coaching-carousel","tag-college-football-first-year-coaches-2026","tag-drew-mestemaker","tag-florida-gators","tag-football","tag-iowa-state-cyclones","tag-james-franklin","tag-jaron-keawe-sagapolutele","tag-jon-sumrall","tag-jordan-seaton","tag-kansas-state-wildcats","tag-kenny-minchey","tag-kentucky-wildcats","tag-kewan-lacy","tag-kyle-whittingham","tag-lance-heard","tag-lane-kiffin","tag-lsu-tigers","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-michigan-wolverines","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-football","tag-new-college-football-coaches-2026","tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","tag-ole-miss-rebels","tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","tag-rocco-becht","tag-sam-leavitt","tag-stanford-cardinal","tag-trinidad-chambliss","tag-ucla-bruins","tag-utah-utes","tag-virginia-tech-hokies"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=743111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/743112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=743111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=743111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=743111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}