{"id":743511,"date":"2026-02-10T23:15:15","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T23:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/743511\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T23:15:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T23:15:15","slug":"nfl-writer-gives-patriots-shockingly-low-chance-to-make-super-bowl-next-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/743511\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Writer Gives Patriots Shockingly Low Chance To Make Super Bowl Next Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

When the 2026 NFL regular season kicks off, each of the teams will technically have a 6.25 percent chance of making it to Super Bowl LXI.<\/p>\n

One would think that with a combination of 23-year-old MVP runner-up<\/a> quarterback Drake Maye and AP Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel in stow for next season, NFL writers would like the New England Patriots\u2019 chances of returning to the big game a bit more than that.<\/p>\n

Jacob Robinson of The Athletic went in the other direction, giving the Patriots just a five percent chance<\/a> of competing in Super Bowl LXI.<\/p>\n

For what it\u2019s worth, he placed the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks\u2019 chances at 30 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo despite Maye playing in his first at age 23, there\u2019s a chance the Patriots quarterback never makes it back,\u201d Robinson wrote. \u201c\u2026I\u2019d put the Patriots\u2019 odds of an immediate return at just 5 percent.\u00a0You\u2019ve surely tired of hearing about their historically easy schedule. Well, it will now flip into one of the league\u2019s tougher slates, with 11 games against teams that finished above .500, plus the Chiefs (6-11). For contrast, only three of New England\u2019s 2025 opponents finished this season above .500.\u201d<\/p>\n

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First, any predictions for each of the 32 NFL teams\u2019 chances of making the championship contest that\u2019s still one year away is an educated guess at best.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The offseason has barely started, the 2026 NFL Draft is still over two months away, no trades or free agency signings<\/a> have happened and injuries will likely be the biggest factor for all teams.<\/p>\n

It is notable that Robinson sees such a big gap in the likelihood of Seattle returning to the big stage in 2027 versus New England though.<\/p>\n

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\u201cTheir offense has plenty of needs, from an improved offensive line to a top weapon for Maye. They\u2019ll also be drafting at the end of each round, and are expected to fork over a significant extension for elite cornerback Christian Gonzalez,\u201d he wrote. \u201cVrabel\u00a0made them fun to watch again, but repeating this sudden success will be difficult, just as it was for the Commanders in 2024. As someone who thought this past offseason that the Patriots would improve into a 10-win surprise, I\u2019m skeptical they\u2019ll be better than that in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When the 2026 NFL regular season kicks off, each of the teams will technically have a 6.25 percent…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":743512,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[833,7,838,6,505,16165],"class_list":{"0":"post-743511","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-drake-maye","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-mike-vrabel","11":"tag-nfl","12":"tag-super-bowl","13":"tag-super-bowl-lx"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116048882994781093","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=743511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/743512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=743511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=743511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=743511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}