{"id":747091,"date":"2026-02-12T13:41:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T13:41:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/747091\/"},"modified":"2026-02-12T13:41:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T13:41:13","slug":"the-vikings-are-too-far-down-the-mccarthy-path-to-hit-reverse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/747091\/","title":{"rendered":"The Vikings Are Too Far Down the McCarthy Path To Hit Reverse"},"content":{"rendered":"

Coaches and executives around the NFL had ominous words about J.J. McCarthy<\/a> when Mike Sando interviewed them for his annual quarterback tiers<\/a> piece on The Athletic.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would have hope for him with that coach and that system if he can stay healthy,\u201d a former GM said. \u201c[McCarthy] has that slight build. He looked pretty good<\/a> in the (2024) preseason, in a short period of time. I believe in the head coach and the system. He has the arm strength, he is athletic, he is smart, he has all those things.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI just hope he is not an (injury-prone) guy,\u201d one coach said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow healthy is he going to be?\u201d another coach asked.<\/p>\n

As we all know, McCarthy didn\u2019t stay healthy<\/a> last season. A year removed from his season-ending meniscus tear<\/a>, he suffered a high-ankle sprain<\/a>, concussion<\/a>, and a hand injury<\/a>.<\/p>\n

McCarthy also threw for 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in the 10 games he played. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold<\/a> threw for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 17 regular-season games, en route to winning the Super Bowl<\/a> with the Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n

However, many of the executives and coaches Sando spoke to were skeptical of Darnold. They spoke anonymously, because Sando wants them to speak honestly and rank the quarterbacks in a five-tier system. All of them compared Darnold to Geno Smith<\/a>, who had started<\/a> in Seattle the year before.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think Geno operates at a higher level, especially in critical moments,\u201d an offensive coach told Sando. \u201cSam\u2019s two-minute stuff versus Geno\u2019s two-minute stuff, that is where Geno separates himself.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think Sam starts one year, and they go with the young kid,\u201d an exec said, referring to 2025 third-round pick Jalen Milroe<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI like Darnold,\u201d one voter said, \u201cbut the end of the season killed me.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, most people were wrong about Darnold when Sando allowed them to speak honestly.<\/p>\n

Geno Smith threw for 3,025 yards, with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, in 15 games with the Las Vegas Raiders. Milroe will not start for the Seahawks next season. Most experts underestimated Darnold.<\/p>\n

Sando has 50 coaches and execs vote on his quarterback tier system.<\/p>\n

Tier 1 is a quarterback who can carry a team every week. Patrick Mahomes<\/a>, Joe Burrow<\/a>, Josh Allen<\/a>, Lamar Jackson<\/a>, and Matthew Stafford<\/a> were the only Tier 1 quarterbacks entering last season.
\nTier 2 are quarterbacks who can carry a team, but not as consistently. Think Justin Herbert<\/a> on the high end, and Dak Prescott<\/a>, Jordan Love<\/a>, and Brock Purdy<\/a> on the lower end.
\nTier 3 consists of legitimate starters, but they need a strong run game and a good defense. An aging Aaron Rodgers<\/a> on the high end. Bo Nix<\/a> in the middle. Kirk Cousins<\/a> forever and always.
\nTier 4 includes unproven players whom voters don\u2019t have enough information to classify, or veterans who shouldn\u2019t start 17 games. Either players like Russell Wilson<\/a>, Joe Flacco<\/a>, or Justin Fields<\/a>, or young quarterbacks like Michael Penix<\/a> Jr. or Anthony Richardson<\/a>.
\nTier 5 is a quarterback \u201cbest suited as a backup.\u201d Entering last year, it was Kenny Pickett<\/a>. Just Kenny Pickett.<\/p>\n

Players will move up and down Sando\u2019s tier list as we enter next season. Lamar Jackson may drop to Tier 2 after a less productive, injury-plagued<\/a> season. Darnold could potentially ascend to Tier 2 after winning the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

However, Darnold benefited from Seattle\u2019s stout defense, which gave up the sixth-fewest yards<\/a> per game. The Seahawks also had a balanced offense, with running and passing at equal rates<\/a>. They also ran slants and rollouts to get him in rhythm.<\/p>\n

Darnold won Seattle games, like when he threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns against Matthew Stafford and the Rams in the NFC Championship game. However, the Seahawks\u2019 defense and run game carried them in their crucial Week 18 game<\/a>, their two other playoff games, and the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

Entering last season, four of Sando\u2019s voters considered Darnold Tier 2, four considered him Tier 4, and 42 believed he was Tier 3. He finished tied for 20th in the voting, tied with Bo Nix. After Darnold led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, Sando\u2019s voters must decide whether he\u2019s a player who can carry a team but is inconsistent, or if he\u2019s riding Seattle\u2019s defense and run game.<\/p>\n

How they vote will have implications for whether McCarthy can match his play.<\/p>\n

Like most young quarterbacks, league coaches and executives saw McCarthy as a Tier 4, unproven quarterback. He\u2019ll likely remain there next year. However, he could become<\/a> a Tier 3 quarterback next year.<\/p>\n

McCarthy would likely reside near the bottom of the Tier 3 quarterbacks, while Darnold would be among the best \u2013 if not Tier 2. More pertinently, the Vikings likely don\u2019t have any Tier 2 quarterbacks available to them next year.<\/p>\n

Minnesota reportedly<\/a> will bring in veteran competition for McCarthy. However, almost all of them are Tier 3 quarterbacks, or worse. The Cincinnati Bengals are unlikely to part<\/a> with Joe Burrow. Trading for Mac Jones<\/a> will be expensive<\/a> or unavailable, and he\u2019s probably Tier 3. So are aging veterans like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco.<\/p>\n

Only a few people saw Darnold as a Tier 2 starter entering this season. The Vikings should have<\/a> franchise-tagged him and allowed him to compete with McCarthy in camp, especially because McCarthy was coming off a season-ending injury.<\/p>\n

However, given how things have played out, McCarthy might still be their best option entering next season. They chose their path<\/a> last year. Now, they might be too far along to change course.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Coaches and executives around the NFL had ominous words about J.J. McCarthy when Mike Sando interviewed them for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":747092,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2073],"tags":[7,1519,233,259,2529,6,1878,234],"class_list":{"0":"post-747091","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-minnesota-vikings","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-j-j-mccarthy","10":"tag-minnesota","11":"tag-minnesota-vikings","12":"tag-minnesotavikings","13":"tag-nfl","14":"tag-sam-darnold","15":"tag-vikings"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116057950564913205","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=747091"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747091\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/747092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=747091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=747091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=747091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}